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📺 Options Video 👉 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDXB1jafqg4
⏰ Time Stamps ⏰
1:20 1) Open Interest
3:27 2) Put Call Ratio
5:05 3) Implied Volatility
6:23 4) Implied Vol vs. Realised
7:20 5) Correlation
9:30 6) Coins Holding
10:50 7) Hodl Wave
11:21 8) Stock-to-Flow Diflection
13:29 9) Puell Multiple
15:33 10) Miner Profitability
⛓️ 🔗 Helpful Links 🔗 ⛓️
► Skew: https://skew.com/
► Glassnode: https://glassnode.com/
► Lookintobitcoin: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/
► Bitinfocharts: https://bitinfocharts.com/
► Coinmetrics: https://coinmetrics.io/correlation-charts/
🔖 Sources 🔖
► Implied Volatility: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/08/implied-volatility.asp
► Open Interest: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/openinterest.asp
► CME Futures Info: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/bitcoin.html
► Stock to Flow Model: https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25
1️⃣ Open Interest
It is basically the total outstanding notional value of all futures or options contracts on the Bitcoin market. These are instruments on both listed exchanges and retail exchanges.
It’s probably the best picture of how many people have positions in the derivative markets. What is less important than the actual number is how it has changed over time. For example, if open interest has been trending upwards recently it means traders are getting ready for potential price action.
2️⃣ Put Call Ratio
The Put-Call ratio is the amount of Puts outstanding vs. the number of calls. A ratio of greater than one means there are more Puts being bought which should be considered bearish. The opposite can be said for a ratio that is less than one.
3️⃣ Implied Volatility
It is the volatility that the market expects in price going forward. It is calculated by looking at the price of the options in the market and extracting the volatility that is implied by these prices.
It gives you a rough idea of how volatile the market expects Bitcoin to be over the coming period. It is sometimes also termed a measure of “fear”.
Correlation between Bitcoin and traditional asset classes is important as it determines *how* their movement will impact on BTC.
You can make an assessment of how Bitcoin will react to the moves of other assets based on how correlation has moved over the past few months.
5️⃣ Bitcoin Addressess Holding
These give you an idea of how many hodlers are positioning for the long term. It shows that the broader market is long term bullish and it means that these coins are not likely to hit the open market anytime soon.
If many more addresses of different sizes are holding Bitcoin then you can be certain that they are doing it for the long term and are bullish.
6️⃣ Hodl Waves
These are called the “Hodl waves” and the metric was developed by unchained capital. You can look at the total number of Bitcoin that have not moved from particular wallets over a certain period of time to get a sense of the wave.
7️⃣ Stock To Flow Divergence
While the Stock-to-Flow is helpful in and of itself, another ratio that you can look at is the current price to the price as predicted from the Stock-to-flow.
If the ratio is greater than one it means that Bitcoin is overvalued relative to this metric and vice versa for a ratio less than one.
8️⃣ Puell multiple
This was developed by a David Puell and is a ratio of the total dollar value of newly issued Bitcoin to the 365 day moving average of this daily issuance.
It is important to look at this as a ratio of a historical average to get a sense of whether it is above or below the norm.
9️⃣ Miner Profitability
Miner profitability is a key metric for me as it gives an idea of how miners might react to in the near term to changes in their profitability.
If mining becomes unprofitable for them then they will switch off their rigs and stop hashing on the network. This then leads to a fall in the hashrate which is strongly correlated with price.
📜 Disclaimer 📜
The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial legal or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading Forex, cryptocurrencies and CFDs poses considerable risk of loss. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome.
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