The BTC price has come under strong selling pressure once again diving to the support of $58,900 levels on news of hotter-than-expected US CPI inflation data. Although Bitcoin has bounced back to $60,600 levels at press time, legendary trader Peter Brandt predicts the possibility of a 75% correction from here. Investors still remain hopeful for a China stimulus of $283 billion coming this weekend.
BTC Price Can Drop 75% From Here
Renowned trader Peter Brandt brought to the attention of the Bitcoin community an important historical trend. In his post on the X platform, Brandt highlighted the concept of “market analogs,” pointing out that it has been 30 weeks since Bitcoin (BTC) reached its all-time high (ATH).
As per Brandt, whenever the BTC price failed to make a decisive new ATH within this timeframe, during the previous instances, it faced a significant decline of over 75%. Thus, if the historical pattern repeats, there’s enough possibility of another such decline ahead.
Hey Bitcoiners
Are you familiar with the concept of “market analogs?”
Here is something to think about
It has been 30 weeks since $BTC made an ATH
Whenever has not made a decisive new ATH within this time length a 75%+ decline has occurred pic.twitter.com/CUyK4C2W93— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 11, 2024
Peter Brandt’s recent observation spooked some Bitcoin enthusiasts stating how he’s been wrong during his prediction in 2023. Responding to this, Brandt wrote: “I am always amused by people who confuse a market observation with a market opinion. Drivers who cannot turn their heads in both directions always end up in an accident”.
Note that just two days before the renowned traded made a Bitcoin price prediction of $130,000 level within the next year.
However, the market sentiment is currently bearish at this moment against the much-anticipated ‘Uptober’ rally. Also, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen three consecutive days of outflows showing that the institutional sentiment is waning in the wake of of rising US CPI for September and hotter-than-expected inflation.
Furthermore, the notion of a strong Bitcoin halving year isn’t playing out so far as per the historical trends. Thus, the BTC price is staring at the longest consolidation in history, in a halving year.
285 days have passed in 2024. If there is no #Bitcoin bull market within the next 14 days, this will mark the longest sideways in a halving year in history. pic.twitter.com/JWHkgHC27C
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) October 11, 2024
Will $283 Billion China Stimulus Help?
The latest Bloomberg report suggests that China is preparing for another $283 billion stimulus by this week in order to shore up its economy and boost consumer confidence. Analysts are hoping that China’s finance minister will announce this stimulus in a briefing on Saturday. The Chinese stocks witnessed strong rally after a week of holiday, however, have been quickly losing momentum thereby raising speculations of another fiscal China stimulus.
The focus of any fiscal package will signal the government’s economic direction, following years of debt-driven growth through investments, particularly in real estate and infrastructure, regardless of the package’s size. Speaking on the matter, Pushan Dutt, professor of economics at INSEAD said:
“The stimulus should be multi-year and targeted to households and not restarting the real estate investment-led growth story. It is the focus of the stimulus rather than the size that is important.”
While the Chinese stock market soared in October, the BTC price didn’t meet expectations. It seems that the stimulus measures have been sucking out liquidity from the crypto market and moving to the Chinese market. Thus, the next China stimulus might not be as bullish for Bitcoin and altcoins moving ahead.
Bhushan Akolkar
Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast with a keen understanding of financial markets. His interest in economics and finance has led him to focus on emerging Blockchain technology and cryptocurrency markets. He is committed to continuous learning and stays motivated by sharing the knowledge he acquires. In his free time, Bhushan enjoys reading thriller fiction novels and occasionally explores his culinary skills.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
