• Citigroup forecasts Bitcoin at $112,000 despite slow US crypto legislation.
• Bitcoin price ranges show cautious momentum with potential volatility ahead.
• Institutional demand remains key amid regulatory uncertainty.

Bitcoin has been steadily climbing over the past week, with its price now sitting around $74,000.

This marks a 6.5% increase over the last seven days, showing renewed momentum after several months of sideways movement.

Citigroup, in its latest update, adjusted its 12-month price forecast for Bitcoin to $112,000, from its previous target of around $143,000.

Citi’s move reflects a cautious optimism shaped by both market dynamics and regulatory developments.

Regulatory headwinds weigh heavily

One of the main reasons for Citigroup’s revised forecast is the slow progress on US cryptocurrency legislation. Lawmakers have yet to finalize clear rules on key issues like stablecoins and decentralized finance.

This lack of clarity is affecting institutional adoption.

Investment firms and hedge funds are hesitant to increase exposure without clear regulatory guidance. The window for passing meaningful crypto laws in the Senate is narrowing.

Internal political divisions are slowing the process further.

Without these legislative catalysts, the market may continue to trade in ranges despite overall optimism.

Citigroup notes that this legislative uncertainty could act as a ceiling for Bitcoin in the near term. Even with strong demand from retail and institutional investors, clear rules are needed to support sustained growth.

What traders should watch out for

Ethereum, Bitcoin’s closest competitor, is also experiencing slower growth due to similar challenges.

Citigroup lowered Ethereum’s 12-month target to $3,175, down from over $4,000. Both cryptocurrencies are influenced by network activity and investor demand, which have shown signs of weakening.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading within a 24-hour range of $73,500 to $74,800, showing relatively stable momentum.

Over the past week, it has moved between $69,000 and $75,600, indicating that volatility is still present.

Citigroup outlines several potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s trajectory. In a bear case, a broader economic downturn or continued regulatory delays could push the price toward $58,000.

On the other hand, strong investor interest and institutional flows could drive it up to $165,000.

These scenarios suggest a wide range of outcomes, highlighting the risks and opportunities for traders.

Even in the base case, Bitcoin is expected to trade around $112,000 within 12 months if adoption trends continue and market confidence improves.

This makes it an attractive, though still volatile, asset for those looking to participate in the cryptocurrency market.

The road ahead is clearly influenced by policy decisions, investor sentiment, and market activity, and traders will need to watch for both regulatory developments and demand signals to navigate this landscape successfully.

TL;DR

• BTC is down 3% in the last 24 hours and trading around $111,200 per coin.
• The negative performance comes amid the ongoing U.S.-China tariff war and Powell’s speech later today.

BTC dips to $111k

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down 3% in the last 24 hours and is now trading around $111,200 per coin. The bearish performance comes amid rising US-China trade conflict, with traders expecting further volatility in the market.

In addition to that, the spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded an outflow of over $320 million on Monday, indicating that investors are taking a cautious approach to the market. 

Fed chair Jerome Powell is set to speak later today, with market participants focusing their attention on the event, which could spark fresh volatility across risk assets, such as Bitcoin.

Investors will be looking for fresh hints on the possibility of an interest rate cut later this month. However, with the ongoing US government shutdown limiting new economic data releases, Powell might offer little information on the upcoming FOMC meeting. 

Finally, on-chain data reveals that the wallet, referred to as BitcoinOG, which shorted BTC right before Friday’s dump last week, has increased its open short position earlier today. This latest development brings the total short position to over 4,394 BTC. 

Two other whales with significant profits on Hyperliquid have also opened large short positions in the market as they expect a further dump in the near term. 

BTC remains bearish as traders adopt a cautious approach

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and inefficient as Bitcoin has underperformed over the last 24 hours. BTC slightly recovered on Monday, hitting the $115k mark following Friday’s sharp decline. 

However, it has failed to maintain the momentum and is now trading at $111,200 per coin. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 42 on the 4H chart, which is below its neutral level of 50. The RSI indicates momentum is gaining traction. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bearish crossover on Friday, remains bearish, suggesting further selling pressure. 

If the BTC correction continues, the coin could dip lower towards the next major support level at $107,245. However, if the bulls regain control of the market, they could push the price towards the $115k resistance level once again.

• Bitcoin hits $112k, fueled by institutional buying.
• Strategy added 196 BTC, increasing its holdings to 640,031 BTC.
• Analysts see potential for $120,000 but warn of volatility risks.

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged to $112k, fueled by renewed institutional interest and a significant acquisition by Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder.

Strategy acquires 196 BTC, holdings hit 640,031

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, has announced the acquisition of 196 Bitcoin for an undisclosed amount, bringing its total holdings to 640,031 BTC, according to a Form 8-K filing.

Strategy has acquired 196 BTC for ~$22.1 million at ~$113,048 per bitcoin. As of 9/28/2025, we hodl 640,031 $BTC acquired for ~$47.35 billion at ~$73,983 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC $STRK $STRF $STRD https://t.co/NnmLONBsRK

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) September 29, 2025

The purchase, funded through the company’s ATM offering programs, outlines Strategy’s position as the leading corporate Bitcoin treasury, with holdings valued at approximately $71.7 billion based on current market prices.

The acquisition follows a pattern of consistent buying, with Strategy adding 850 BTC on September 22, 2025, and 525 BTC on September 15, 2025, at an average price of $114,562 per BTC.

Michael Saylor, the Executive Chairman, has a strategy of leveraging equity and debt financing to accumulate BTC which has solidified the company’s role as a Bitcoin-backed treasury model.

This latest purchase concurs with Bitcoin’s price climbing to $112,500, reflecting a 2.9% increase from $109,525.50 three days prior.

Analysts on BTC price outlook

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin’s price trajectory following its climb to $112,000.

The surge aligns with the Strategy’s aggressive accumulation and broader market momentum, but opinions vary on future movements.

Analysts have projected BTC could reach $150k-$200k in 2025, and institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors are seen as key tailwinds. However, some say volatility means bears may not be done yet.

QCP analysts shared their outlook

“After a volatile September, $BTC is still up more than 3% on the month. Options markets show conviction slowly returning, but the 115k level remains the hurdle to clear for a renewed uptrend.”

Bitcoin at ‘Buy’ for dip level?

According to QCP analysts, the crypto market is showing “signs of recovery” following the carnage seen the previous week. The shakeout that saw BTC trade to under $109k may nonetheless offer a buy-the-dip opportunity.

“Despite sizable ETF outflows, particularly on Friday, spot managed to hold sideways through the weekend. This points to quarter-end basis unwinds as a key driver of redemptions, with markets absorbing the selling pressure more smoothly than expected,” QCP wrote. “With spot rebounding, this week’s ETF flows could set the tone for institutional demand heading into a seasonally bullish month.”

Strategy’s consistent buying is seen as a bullish signal, with potential U.S. policies on digital assets influencing long-term price stability.

If bulls rally, Bitcoin’s ability to break past $117k will be crucial. The level marks a sizable supply wall area and will b pivotal for a breakout above $118k and retest of the $120k mark.

• Bitcoin hovers above $112K, with bulls defending key support.
• Ethereum drops 7% weekly as ETF outflows pressure sentiment.
• Institutions stay invested, betting on a stronger Q4 recovery.

Crypto markets are still reeling from a fierce “Red September” selloff that has sent jitters through traders and investors alike.

There is a strong undercurrent of caution right now with investors watching the macro headlines, especially the Fed’s latest moves, and feeling heat from a resurgent US dollar and mounting regulatory uncertainties.

The fear factor is high among retail traders, especially with meme coins back in panic territory, but interestingly, big institutions haven’t cleared out.

That says a lot about the market’s long-term resilience.

For all the volatility, veteran investors seem to believe this selloff could be paving the way for a healthier Q4, especially if some regulatory clarity and macro relief finally show up.

Major crypto movers

Bitcoin’s been tossed around all week, trying to hold firm just above the $112,000 mark.

Despite all the drama, BTC’s daily change has been pretty muted, but it’s still down roughly 2% over the past seven days.

The tension is palpable; there’s talk that a slip below $112,000 could trigger another rapid drop, but so far, bulls are digging in their heels.

Ethereum is also fighting for higher ground, currently near $4,200.

Its weekly loss is steeper than Bitcoin’s, about 7% and analysts see ETF outflows and seasonal September trading patterns in play.

For Solana, it’s a similar story, with sellers driving the price toward $216, the coin shedding more than 2% in the latest session, and short-term holders running for cover.

XRP has been a mild outlier, eking out some gains where most heavyweights reversed. It bounced up to around $2.86 and stayed resilient after threatening a breakdown below key support.

DOGE, however, lost some of its shine, dropping just over 1% today as meme coin enthusiasm fizzled after the big liquidations.

Even with all the noise, the big coins aren’t in catastrophic territory, but the road to recovery is littered with caution tape.

Market update: News and broader trends

This latest bout of selling is being blamed on a handful of big-picture trends.

First and foremost, traders point to the Fed’s mixed messaging, a rate cut that should excite risk assets paradoxically made the US dollar even stronger, making it tougher for speculative bets on crypto to thrive.

Huge liquidations have unfolded, with more than $1.65 billion in leveraged longs forced out of the market.

Meme coins bore the brunt of the panic, but strong institutional flows suggest bigger players are sticking to their long game.

Regulatory uncertainty is a running theme, debates in the US and Europe over tougher anti-money laundering rules and crypto tax policies have stoked investor anxiety.

There are also worries over trade tensions and new tariffs added to US imports from India, Taiwan, and Canada, further muddying the waters and keeping risk appetite subdued.

Yet there’s a strange sense of optimism simmering.

Many believe the panic has set the stage for a more sustainable rally later in the year, especially if macro and regulatory conditions stabilize.

Institutional adoption, fresh network upgrades, and the possibility of new Bitcoin-related policies, perhaps even news from President Trump’s upcoming speech, are keeping hope alive that the tide could turn before year-end.

Bitcoin price is correcting gains from $116,500. BTC is now consolidating and might start a fresh decline if it stays below the $116,500 resistance zone.

• Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $115,000 zone.
• The price is trading below $115,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
• There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $115,350 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair might start another increase if it clears the $116,500 zone.

Bitcoin Price Struggles To Continue Higher

Bitcoin price started a fresh upward wave above the $113,500 zone. BTC managed to climb above the $114,500 and $115,000 resistance levels.

The bulls were able to push the price above $116,000 and $116,200. The price traded as high as $116,743 and recently started a downside correction. There was a minor decline below the $116,000 zone. The price even dipped below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent move from the $110,815 swing low to the $116,743 high.

Bitcoin is now trading below $115,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $115,350 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $115,350 level. The first key resistance is near the $116,150 level. The next resistance could be $116,750. A close above the $116,750 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $117,500 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $118,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $118,800.

Downside Continuation In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $116,150 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $114,500 level. The first major support is near the $113,750 level or the 50% Fib level of the recent move from the $110,815 swing low to the $116,743 high.

The next support is now near the $113,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $112,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $110,500, below which BTC might decline heavily.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $114,500, followed by $113,750.

Major Resistance Levels – $116,150 and $116,750.

Bitcoin price is attempting a recovery wave above $111,500. BTC is now rising and might gain pace if it clears the $112,000 resistance level.

• Bitcoin started a recovery wave above the $111,000 zone.
• The price is trading above $111,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $111,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair might start another decline if it stays below the $112,500 zone.

Bitcoin Price Eyes Upside Break

Bitcoin price started a fresh recovery wave above the $109,650 zone. BTC was able to climb above the $110,200 and $110,500 resistance levels.

The recent swing low was formed at $109,369 before the price climbed again. There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $112,537 swing high to the $109,369 low. However, the bears are active below the $112,000 level.

Bitcoin is now trading above $111,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $111,600 level. Besides, there is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $111,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

The first key resistance is near the $111,800 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $112,537 swing high to the $109,369 low. The next resistance could be $112,000. A close above the $112,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $112,500 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $113,200 level. The main target could be $115,000.

Another Drop In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $112,000 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $111,000 level. The first major support is near the $110,350 level.

The next support is now near the $109,350 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $108,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $107,500, below which BTC might decline sharply.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $110,350, followed by $109,350.

Major Resistance Levels – $112,000 and $112,500.

Bitcoin price is correcting gains and trading below $118,000. BTC is still showing some bearish signs and might decline toward the $112,000 zone.

• Bitcoin started a downside correction below the $118,000 zone.
• The price is trading below $116,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $118,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair might start another increase if it clears the $118,000 resistance zone.

Bitcoin Price Dips Again

Bitcoin price started a fresh decline after a close below the $120,000 level. BTC gained bearish momentum and traded below the $118,500 support zone.

There was a move below the $116,500 support zone and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. The pair tested the $114,750 zone. A low was formed at $114,715 and the price is now consolidating below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $124,420 swing high to the $114,715 low.

Bitcoin is now trading below $117,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $117,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $118,000 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $118,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

The next resistance could be $118,500. A close above the $118,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $119,500 resistance level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $124,420 swing high to the $114,715 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $120,000 level. The main target could be $121,500.

More Losses In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $118,000 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $115,000 level. The first major support is near the $114,750 level.

The next support is now near the $113,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $112,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $110,000, below which BTC might continue to move down.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $115,000, followed by $113,500.

Major Resistance Levels – $118,000 and $118,500.

Christian’s journey with the written word began long before the age of Bitcoin. In the hallowed halls of academia, he honed his craft as a feature writer for his college paper. This early love for storytelling paved the way for a successful stint as an editor at a data engineering firm, where his first-month essay win funded a months-long supply of doggie and kitty treats – a testament to his dedication to his furry companions (more on that later).

Christian then roamed the world of journalism, working at newspapers in Canada and even South Korea. He finally settled down at a local news giant in his hometown in the Philippines for a decade, becoming a total news junkie. But then, something new caught his eye: cryptocurrency. It was like a treasure hunt mixed with storytelling – right up his alley!

So, he landed a killer gig at NewsBTC, where he’s one of the go-to guys for all things crypto. He breaks down this confusing stuff into bite-sized pieces, making it easy for anyone to understand (he salutes his management team for teaching him this skill).

Think Christian’s all work and no play? Not a chance! When he’s not at his computer, you’ll find him indulging his passion for motorbikes. A true gearhead, Christian loves tinkering with his bike and savoring the joy of the open road on his 320-cc Yamaha R3. Once a speed demon who hit 120mph (a feat he vowed never to repeat), he now prefers leisurely rides along the coast, enjoying the wind in his thinning hair.

Speaking of chill, Christian’s got a crew of furry friends waiting for him at home. Two cats and a dog. He swears cats are way smarter than dogs (sorry, Grizzly), but he adores them all anyway. Apparently, watching his pets just chillin’ helps him analyze and write meticulously formatted articles even better.

Here’s the thing about this guy: He works a lot, but he keeps himself fueled by enough coffee to make it through the day – and some seriously delicious (Filipino) food. He says a delectable meal is the secret ingredient to a killer article. And after a long day of crypto crusading, he unwinds with some rum (mixed with milk) while watching slapstick movies.

Looking ahead, Christian sees a bright future with NewsBTC. He says he sees himself privileged to be part of an awesome organization, sharing his expertise and passion with a community he values, and fellow editors – and bosses – he deeply respects.

So, the next time you tread into the world of cryptocurrency, remember the man behind the words – the crypto crusader, the grease monkey, and the feline philosopher, all rolled into one.