Key takeaways

• BTC is down 1% in the last 24 hours and is now trading below $71,000.
• The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the inflation fears continue to weigh on market sentiments. 

Bitcoin (BTC) is starting the week on shaky ground, hovering near the critical $70,700 support level on Monday. A decisive break below this zone could open the door to a broader correction. 

Geopolitical tensions dent risk appetite

The primary catalyst behind the poor performance is the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran. 

Efforts to reach a resolution between the United States and Iran ended without progress, following talks in Pakistan that failed to produce a ceasefire agreement. US Vice President JD Vance described the proposal as a final offer, which Iran rejected, with state media citing excessive demands.

Furthermore, US President Donald Trump announced plans for a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to disrupt a fragile ceasefire. At the same time, ongoing Israeli military activity in Lebanon has heightened fears of a wider regional escalation.

Macroeconomic pressures are also limiting Bitcoin’s upside. Fresh data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed inflation accelerating sharply, with the Consumer Price Index rising 0.9% in March—its fastest monthly increase in four years. On an annual basis, inflation climbed to 3.3%, up from 2.4% in February.

The data has prompted investors to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, reinforcing a more hawkish outlook. 

Despite the current market conditions, institutional demand provided a degree of support last week. Data from SoSoValue shows spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of $786.31 million, building on modest gains from the prior week. 

If the institutional inflow increases, it could help stabilize prices and potentially drive a rebound in the near term.

Bitcoin price outlook: BTC approaches a crucial support level

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as Bitcoin is approaching a crucial support level. 

Bitcoin recently found support near its 200-week exponential moving average around $68,100 and posted a modest weekly gain. As of Monday, BTC is trading just above $70,700.

If bullish momentum builds, Bitcoin could target a move toward $74,500, which marks its 2025 yearly low. Indicators suggest early signs of stabilization, with the Relative Strength Index trending upward and the MACD signaling a bullish crossover on the weekly chart.

However, Bitcoin continues to face resistance from key moving averages, including the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day levels.

If the daily candle closes above the 50-day EMA near $70,700, it could open the path toward $72,500 and beyond. 

On the downside, failure to hold this level could see BTC slide toward the $65,800 support zone.

Bitcoin price failed to stay above $70,500 and declined further. BTC is now consolidating below $70,500 and might continue to move down.

• Bitcoin started a fresh decline from well above the $71,200 zone.
• The price is trading below $70,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
• There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $70,050 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair might start another decline if it stays below the $70,000 and $70,500 levels.

Bitcoin Price Dips Further

Bitcoin price failed to continue higher above $72,000 and reacted to the downside. BTC trimmed gains and declined below the $71,200 support.

The bears pushed the price below $70,500 and $70,000. The price tested the $68,000 zone. A low was formed at $68,115, and the price is now consolidating losses near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $71,985 swing high to the $68,115 low.

Bitcoin is now trading below $70,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $70,050 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

If the price remains stable above $68,200, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $69,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $70,000 level and the trend line. A close above the $70,000 resistance might send the price further higher.

In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $70,500 resistance or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $71,985 swing high to the $68,115 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $71,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $72,000.

More Losses In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $70,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $68,400 level. The first major support is near the $68,000 level.

The next support is now near the $67,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $66,800 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $65,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $68,400, followed by $68,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $70,000 and $70,500.

Bitcoin price started a sharp decline from well above $73,000. BTC is now consolidating and might aim for a fresh increase if it clears $72,400.

• Bitcoin started a sharp decline below $72,000 and $71,500.
• The price is trading below $72,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
• There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $71,550 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair might continue to rise if it clears the $71,500 and $72,400 levels.

Bitcoin Price Starts Consolidation

Bitcoin price started a sharp decline from well above $73,000. BTC declined below $72,500 and $72,000 to enter a short-term bearish zone.

The bears even pushed the price below $71,200. There was a move toward $68,800. A low was formed at $68,782, and the pair is now consolidating losses. There was a minor upward move above $70,000. The price tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $75,998 swing high to the $68,782 low.

Bitcoin is now trading below $72,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Besides, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $71,550 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

If the price remains stable above $69,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $70,800 level. The first key resistance is near the $71,500 level and the trend line. A close above the $71,500 resistance might send the price further higher.

In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $72,400 resistance or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $75,998 swing high to the $68,782 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $73,250 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $74,000.

Downside Extension In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $72,400 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $69,650 level. The first major support is near the $69,000 level.

The next support is now near the $68,800 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $68,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $67,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $69,650, followed by $68,800.

Major Resistance Levels – $71,500 and $72,400.

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