As Bitcoin (BTC) retests a crucial level after breaking down of a bearish pattern, an analyst has suggested that the flagship crypto’s final correction before the next bull market could start in the coming days.

Related Reading

Start Of ‘Final Washout’ Is Days Away

In a Monday analysis, market observer Ali Martinez affirmed that Bitcoin’s final leg down before the next bull run could be around the corner based on the flagship crypto’s past cycle’s behavior.

The analyst explained that historically, the crossover between BTC’s 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) has marked the “‘absolute bottom’ of every major cycle since 2014.”

Over the past 12 years, whenever these two lines crossed on the three-day chart, it has consistently signaled the start of the “final washout” before the next bull market begins. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin had already declined by 50%-72% from its cycle peaks when the 50- and 200-SMAs crossed.

23-33 days after the crossover, the cryptocurrency continued its correction, retracing another 45%-52% before bottoming. In 2022, “another lower low formed 156 days later, completing the bear structure and opening the door for the next bull market.”

Now, Bitcoin has already seen a 52% correction from its October 2025 peak, while the SMAs crossed over on February 27. “As of today, we are exactly 30 days into this signal,” the analyst detailed, adding that “If history ‘rhymes,’ we are likely entering the Final Accumulation Window of this cycle within the next 3 to 6 days.”

Martinez noted that while the final leg down could be intimidating, history has shown that the crossover is the “Golden Opportunity” for long-term investors. Based on its 40%-50% “resets,” the analyst suggested two main accumulation zones: the $40,000 and $30,000 levels.

Structurally, this setup has historically aligned with the last major downside move before a generational macro bottom forms. (…) The countdown to the next vertical move has begun.

Bitcoin Bear Flag Breakdown Confirmed?

After closing the week around the $66,000 mark, Bitcoin has surged to the $67,000-$68,000 area to retest a crucial level from below. The flagship crypto has been trading between $62,000-$74,000 for nearly two months, developing a bearish formation during this period.

Notably, BTC has formed a bearish flag pattern on the daily timeframe, retesting the formation’s lower and upper boundaries multiple times since early February. Following last week’s correction, the cryptocurrency retraced over 10% from its recent highs to a four-week low of $65,000 on Sunday.

Related Reading

Amid this performance, Bitcoin lost the lower boundary of its bear flag formation, risking a second leg down toward lower levels. Analyst Crypto Jelle noted that the cryptocurrency is currently retesting the formation from below after today’s bounce, which could confirm that the pattern’s support has turned into resistance if BTC price is rejected.

In addition, the market watcher pointed out that the cryptocurrency’s bear market lows have historically formed below the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement levels, which could place BTC’s bottom below the $57,000 area. “Is this time different? Doubt it,” Jelle concluded.

Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

The recent collapse of crypto exchange FTX highlights the “absolute need” for decentralization, according to Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson.

Speaking at the Financial Times Crypto and Digital Assets Summit, Hoskinson said that the crypto industry “has never been stronger in terms of its offerings to the tradfi [traditional finance] marketplace and to the world as a whole,” but that recent collapses such as FTX have demonstrated the need for decentralization and proof of reserves.

“The failures we’re having aren’t failures of protocols, aren’t failures of DeFi,” Hoskinson said. “They’re failures of trust, they’re failures of regulation, they’re failures of people.”

He added that these failures of trust—in both the crypto industry and the traditional finance industry—are driving a shift “from companies and people to protocols.”

“People like centralization, because it gives you consistency, and it gives you efficiency and optimization,” Hoskinson said. “But then they always suffer the consequences of it at some point, because people make mistakes, or people get corrupted. We saw that with FTX, and we saw that with Luna.”

Hoskinson as ‘figurehead’

Hoskinson argued that his own creation, Cardano, has “outgrown its founder,” adding that, “while I got the party started, good parties live on beyond their host.”

He pointed to statistics that, he claimed, showed how decentralized the protocol is. “There’s over three million people, 1,200 projects that are building—over 100 have launched—6 billion assets have been issued. The vast majority of that activity has nothing to do with me.”

Hoskinson also posed the question, “how do we really measure things like resilience and decentralization?”

He said that as part of its partnership with the University of Edinburgh, IOHK (the developer group that maintains Cardano) has started a lab that will create an index to track those metrics. They include how reliant a protocol is on core entities, the distribution of its currency and its treasury, and the level of decentralization of consensus. “These are all objective metrics,” he explained.

“You can look at things like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Cardano and ask a very precise question, which is how decentralized really is it?” Hoskinson said. “And which one of the Jenga blocks can you remove before the tower falls over?”

Bitcoin, ethereum and other major cryptocurrencies have fallen sharply, plunging the bitcoin price back under the closely-watched $40,000 per bitcoin level.

Subscribe now to Forbes’ CryptoAsset & Blockchain Advisor and successfully navigate the crypto price roller coaster

The bitcoin price has bounced around $40,000 for most of 2022 as the bulls and the bears battle it out for control of the market. Meanwhile, the ethereum price has dropped under $3,000 per ether for the first time since mid-March.

The combined crypto market has lost almost $400 billion since early April, as top ten cryptocurrencies including Binance’s BNB, Ripple’s XRP, solana, cardano, luna and avalanche struggle—with analysts warning a “disaster in the financial markets” could push bitcoin under $30,000.

Want to stay ahead of the market and understand the latest crypto news? Sign up now for the free CryptoCodex—A daily newsletter for crypto investors and the crypto-curious

MORE FROM FORBESDogecoin ‘A Proxy For Twitter Stock’-Doge Price Could Soar If Elon Musk Buys Twitter, Potentially Boosting Bitcoin, Ethereum And Other CryptocurrenciesBy Billy Bambrough

“The signal for a break of the mild upward trend would be a consolidation below the $38,000 per bitcoin levels,” Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro senior market analyst, wrote in emailed comments. “If the bulls capitulate, the first cryptocurrency could be pushed into the $32,o00 to $35,000 range without much resistance.”

The bitcoin and crypto sell-off comes as U.S. stock market futures declined ahead of the Monday’s opening after a long holiday weekend, with investors bracing for a week of major first-quarter earnings reports and speeches by Federal Reserve policy-makers.

Last week, March’s consumer price index reading showed an 8.5% increase from a year ago, the fastest annual gain since December 1981. Fed officials have promised to do whatever it takes to bring inflation under control, however, Goldman Sachs analysts have warned the Fed will struggle to cool inflation without causing a U.S. recession, putting the odds of the economy contracting at around 35% over the next two years.

“We are increasingly concerned about a summer of turbulence and volatility,” Eric Robertsen, chief strategist at Standard Chartered, wrote in a note first reported by Bloomberg. Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, puts the chance of a recession this year at 35%, “but it’s not our base case,” it was reported by Reuters. “As concerns over an impending recession recede, I think the sponsorship of the defensives will recede with that,” Hogan told the newswire.

“A consolidation scenario below $30,000 would require an absolute disaster in the financial markets,” added Kuptsikevich.

Sign up now for CryptoCodex—A free, daily newsletter for the crypto-curious

MORE FROM FORBESRace To $1 Trillion: Crypto Price Data Reveals When Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, XRP, Cardano And Others Could Hit The MilestoneBy Billy Bambrough

Last week, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, revealed he fears the price of bitcoin and ethereum could fall much further in coming months. Hayes expects the bitcoin price to crash to $30,000 over the next two months, with the ethereum price falling as low as $2,500 per ether.

“Bitcoin and ethereum will bottom well before the Fed acts and U-turns its policy from tight to loose,” he wrote in a blog post, adding he’s betting on a bitcoin and ethereum price “crash” by June.