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Ethereum is navigating a period of heightened volatility and uncertainty as it hovers around the critical $2,000 threshold. While recent price action suggests temporary stabilization after weeks of selling pressure, conviction remains limited. The $2,000 level is functioning less as confirmed support and more as a psychological battleground where short-term positioning, liquidity conditions, and sentiment are colliding.
A recent analysis from Arab Chain offers additional structural insight through the ETH Binance Liquid vs. Illiquid Supply Model. This framework separates Ethereum held on Binance into liquid supply — coins readily available for trading — and illiquid supply, which is comparatively less likely to move in the short term. As of February, Binance’s total ETH reserves stand at approximately 3.57 million ETH. Of this amount, around 1.16 million ETH is classified as liquid supply, while 2.40 million ETH is categorized as illiquid.
This distribution matters. A relatively smaller liquid component can limit immediate sell-side pressure, but it does not eliminate risk if sentiment deteriorates. Conversely, a larger illiquid base may reflect longer holding behavior or strategic positioning rather than imminent distribution.
At a moment when price hovers near a key technical pivot, the composition of exchange reserves becomes a meaningful variable in assessing Ethereum’s next structural move.
The current reserve composition on Binance suggests Ethereum is operating within a structurally balanced environment rather than an immediate distribution phase. With illiquid supply accounting for the majority of the 3.57 million ETH held on the platform, a substantial portion of coins appears relatively dormant. Illiquid balances are typically associated with longer holding horizons or reduced trading frequency, which tends to dampen immediate sell-side pressure.
This matters at a time when ETH is hovering near $2,000. A dominant illiquid share implies that most holders are not actively positioning for a rapid exit. In previous cycles, sharp increases in liquid supply often preceded volatility spikes, as coins became readily available for market execution. That dynamic is not yet evident at scale.
By contrast, liquid supply historically expands during speculative phases, when traders rotate capital aggressively or prepare for directional exposure. The absence of a pronounced expansion suggests that, for now, speculative intensity remains contained.
The relatively stable gap between liquid and illiquid supply indicates equilibrium between holding behavior and active trading. However, this balance is conditional. A meaningful shift toward higher liquid supply would increase the probability of renewed volatility. Conversely, sustained illiquid dominance could help absorb price shocks and moderate downside acceleration.
Ethereum remains under structural pressure as price hovers near the $2,000 region following a sharp breakdown from the $3,200–$3,400 zone. The weekly chart shows a clear loss of bullish structure, with lower highs forming since the late-2025 peak and momentum decisively shifting to the downside.
Price is now trading below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, both of which are beginning to flatten or slope downward. This configuration typically signals weakening intermediate momentum and a transition into a corrective phase. Notably, Ethereum briefly tested levels near $1,800 before bouncing, suggesting the presence of reactive demand in that liquidity pocket. However, the recovery remains limited and has not yet reclaimed key moving averages.
The 200-week moving average, positioned lower on the chart, remains upward sloping, indicating that the broader macro trend has not fully reversed. Historically, this level has served as strong structural support during deeper cycle corrections. If downside pressure resumes, this zone could become a critical area to monitor.
Volume expanded significantly during the recent selloff, reflecting forced positioning adjustments rather than gradual distribution. Since then, activity has moderated, pointing to temporary stabilization.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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Ethereum is holding firm above the $2,750 level after retracing slightly from a local high of $2,830 set just a few hours ago. The move marks a strong show of resilience from bulls, as ETH continues to push higher despite broader market uncertainty. Momentum appears to be building, and many analysts are calling for the beginning of an altseason, led by Ethereum’s breakout from a prolonged period of range-bound trading.
According to on-chain data from Glassnode, Ethereum has just broken out of a month-long consolidation range. The Cost Basis Distribution reveals a significant amount of ETH accumulated during this phase, with 1.3 million ETH held between $2,700 and $2,740, and another 800,000 ETH around $2,760. These levels now represent a strong on-chain support base, suggesting that many investors are sitting in profit and are likely to hold rather than sell into strength.
With ETH now pressing against local resistance and solid support below, the structure is favorable for a continuation to the upside. A confirmed breakout above $2,830 could open the door to $3,000 and beyond, potentially triggering capital rotation into altcoins and fueling a full-scale altseason. All eyes are now on Ethereum’s next move.
As the U.S. and China continue trade deal negotiations, financial markets are bracing for a decisive move, and Ethereum is right at the center of attention. With major headlines shifting global risk sentiment, ETH’s price action has become a leading indicator for the broader crypto market. Ethereum is now pressing into a key resistance zone near $2,800, and analysts agree: if ETH can reclaim higher levels, it could confirm the start of a long-awaited altseason.
Despite macro uncertainty, positive sentiment continues to build. Ethereum recently broke out of a month-long consolidation range, a signal of growing strength. According to data from Glassnode, the Cost Basis Distribution reveals that 1.3 million ETH were accumulated between $2,700 and $2,740, while another 800,000 ETH were bought around $2,760. These levels now serve as a strong on-chain support base, reinforcing the bullish structure and suggesting that buyers from the consolidation phase are likely to hold rather than sell.
This backdrop puts Ethereum in a decisive position. A confirmed breakout above $2,830 could open the door to a swift rally toward $3,000 and beyond. With solid support underneath and the entire altcoin market watching, ETH is poised to lead the next phase of crypto expansion—if bulls can maintain control.
Ethereum is trading at $2,766 on the 4-hour chart after breaking out of a month-long range and briefly hitting a high of $2,794. Price has now pulled back slightly, but the structure remains bullish as ETH continues to hold above the previous resistance zone, now flipped into support around $2,700–$2,740.
This consolidation above the breakout zone is a healthy sign, suggesting bulls are in control and preparing for a continuation move. The 50, 100, and 200 simple moving averages (SMAs) — currently at $2,587, $2,588, and $2,557, respectively — have all turned upward and are stacked beneath price, further supporting the trend.
Volume surged during the breakout but has cooled slightly during the pullback, signaling no immediate signs of heavy distribution. As long as ETH holds this reclaimed range and doesn’t fall back below the 200 SMA, the bias remains bullish. A successful retest of the breakout zone could lead to another push toward the $2,850–$2,900 range.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
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BOB (Build on Bitcoin), a hybrid layer two (L2) network, has advanced its mission to position Bitcoin at the center of decentralized finance (DeFi) by integrating with Babylon, a Bitcoin staking protocol.
This collaboration enables BOB to secure transactions using Bitcoin as its anchor chain, providing a level of finality and irreversibility unique to the Bitcoin network.
The integration with Babylon equips Build on Bitcoin (BOB) with “Bitcoin finality,” ensuring that transactions recorded on its platform are permanently and irreversibly secured on Bitcoin’s blockchain. This mechanism, as a result, strengthens the security and trustworthiness of BOB’s hybrid layer two network, distinguishing it from other Bitcoin-based L2 solutions that lack Bitcoin-native security.
Babylon, recognized as the leading Bitcoin staking protocol, manages a total value locked (TVL) of approximately $6 billion. The protocol, as a result, allows Bitcoin holders to stake their BTC, contributing to the security of decentralized applications and earning rewards in return.
Introducing BOB as a Bitcoin Secured Network (BSN).
Through our integration with @babylonlabs_io, we’re bringing Bitcoin finality to the Hybrid L2 and making @build_on_bob the best place to use BTC Liquid Staking Tokens (LSTs).https://t.co/K6baJZ2TAs pic.twitter.com/YmQLiaa9r9
— BOB (@build_on_bob) December 18, 2024
Through Babylon’s protocol, BOB can use Liquid Staking Tokens (LSTs) to release Bitcoin liquidity into DeFi applications while retaining Bitcoin’s robust security.
Build on Bitcoin hybrid layer two model blends Bitcoin’s security with Ethereum’s smart contract capabilities. The network aims to create bridges to other blockchains while using Bitcoin as the final settlement layer.
With over $200 million in TVL, 320,000 users, and 100 projects, BOB has positioned itself as a prominent player in the Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem.
The integration is also part of BOB’s larger roadmap. As part of Phase 2, BOB will launch bridges that connect Bitcoin to other networks using BitVM, a new computing framework enabling Ethereum-like smart contracts on Bitcoin. The testnet release for BitVM is scheduled for early 2025, signaling BOB’s commitment to expanding Bitcoin’s DeFi potential.
To further enhance its ecosystem, BOB has announced the integration of LBTC, the largest Bitcoin LST, managed by Lombard Finance. LBTC, with a TVL of $1.6 billion, becomes the fourth LST deployment on BOB, following Ethereum, Base, and Binance Smart Chain. Approximately 80% of LBTC’s TVL is already actively deployed in DeFi applications, reflecting its importance in the staking landscape.
This addition bolsters Build on Bitcoin’s efforts to expand Bitcoin staking liquidity and amplify DeFi activity on its platform. Through partnerships with staking providers, wallets, and aggregators, BOB has simplified the process of staking Bitcoin with a one-click solution.
Subsequently, to celebrate its integration with Babylon, Build on Bitcoin has launched a 45-day campaign aimed at incentivizing Bitcoin staking and DeFi activity. Over this period, an additional 4.5 million Babylon Points will be distributed daily to eligible users.
In addition, the campaign includes additional incentives from BOB’s LST partners, such as Bedrock and PumpBTC, to encourage wider adoption. Users will be able to easily convert native Bitcoin into staking positions on Build on Bitcoin via the “BOB Stake” portal, which supports a seamless transition into DeFi applications.
Kelvin Munene Murithi
Kelvin is a distinguished writer with expertise in crypto and finance, holding a Bachelor’s degree in Actuarial Science. Known for his incisive analysis and insightful content, he possesses a strong command of English and excels in conducting thorough research and delivering timely cryptocurrency market updates.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Amazon is looking to anchor the IPO and has joined Nvidia, Apple, Intel, TSMC, and Samsung in official talks with Arm Ltd.
American multinational e-commerce giant Amazon is reportedly trying to anchor the upcoming initial public offering (IPO) of SoftBank Group Corp’s chip designer Arm Ltd. According to a Reuters report, people familiar with the matter have confirmed Amazon’s intention even though neither company has officially released a statement.
Arm is currently talking with several major tech companies as it prepares for the IPO. In addition to Amazon, Arm is in talks with Apple, TSMC, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd, Alphabet Inc, and Intel Corp. However, while engagements are ongoing, the source said the discussions are preliminary. In addition, the investment would not give any anchor investor any control or board seat. The source also noted that Arm will likely not make any related decision until August.
Last year, Nvidia confirmed its intention to buy Arm Holdings for up to $40 billion from current owner SoftBank. The company’s confirmation ended weeks of speculation about a possible acquisition and was set to give Nvidia more power in the semiconductor industry. SoftBank was to get $2 billion in cash, $21.5 billion worth of Nvidia stock, and $1.5 billion in equity compensation for Arm staff. However, the potential deal eventually collapsed following regulator concerns from the UK, EU, and US. Regulators worried that the deal would create too much monopoly in the industry.
Arm was dual-listed in New York and London before SoftBank acquired the chipmaker for $32 billion. Last year, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak tried to reopen discussions about a London listing. Reportedly, Arm CEO Rene Haas met with Sunak at the Prime Minister’s official residence to discuss a possible IPO. The meeting, which had SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son in virtual attendance, reportedly ended positively. However, SoftBank decided to go with a US-Only IPO, abandoning plans for a London listing. In a statement, Haas said the US-only option “is the best way forward for the company and its stakeholders.”
Arm is seeking an IPO valuation of up to $70 billion. The listing, expected in September, could become the biggest IPO of 2023. It could also be the tech industry’s largest since Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) in 2012 and Alibaba Group in 2014. Arm’s official filing names multiple US financial services companies, including Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Mizuho Financial Group, and JPMorgan Chase.
At the initial IPO announcement, bankers had estimated that Arm would be worth between $30 billion and $70 billion at the IPO. However, CEO Haas disagreed with the lower end. According to him, the low point was not an accurate representation of the company’s value.
Arm’s IPO could significantly benefit SoftBank following the loss announced for the quarter ended June. The company announced a surprising net loss of 477.6 billion yen ($3.3 billion), far from the 75 billion yen profit analysts expected. Nonetheless, it was a better performance than the 3.16 trillion yen loss SoftBank recorded for the same period in 2022.
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Sources familiar with the matter said that the two players have been negotiating over valuations. They also stated that SoftBank’s founder Masayoshi Son is trying to find big investors for Arm, as SoftBank has plans to liquidate its stake.
As per the latest report on Wednesday, July 12, chip manufacturing giant Nvidia has been in talks with industry peer Arm to be an anchor investor in Arm’s IPO listing on the New York Stock Exchange. As reported by the Financial Times, the listing shall happen as soon as September this year.
Thus, Nvidia joins the bandwagon as different companies are currently in talks with Arm to secure long-term staking in the chip designer ahead of the initial public offering. Over the last few months, Arm has been talking to more than 10 companies, including big names such as Intel.
As per the latest report, both Nvidia and Arm have been negotiating over Arm’s valuation. Nvidia would prefer a stake that would value Arm anywhere between $35 billion and $40 billion, as per one of the sources familiar with the matter. On the other hand, Arm is seeking a valuation of $80 billion, said the source.
Regulators rejected Nvidia’s $66 billion acquisition of Arm last year due to concerns about competition. This time, Nvidia and Arm have proposed a much smaller investment in the range of hundreds of millions of dollars. They have also reached out to regulators in advance to address any concerns and alleviate fears, as per sources familiar with the matter.
Financial Times reports that bringing anchor investors aboard is important for Arm to help support the stock as earlier backer SoftBank looks to liquidate its stake. Numerous private tech companies and their advisors are closely monitoring Arm’s IPO launch in 2023, especially after a decline in new listings over the past year.
In challenging IPO markets, it is common for companies to secure the backing of anchor investors in advance. This strategy helps ensure demand and provides reassurance to other potential investors.
Sources familiar with the matter said that SoftBank’s founder Masayoshi Son is trying to find big investors for Arm before it goes public. He wants to increase Arm’s revenue before the IPO. SoftBank declined to comment.
Nvidia is already a customer of Arm, but it wants to invest in the company to expand its business. Nvidia currently makes graphics processing units (GPUs), which are dedicated chips for accelerating specialized tasks like 3D rendering and training artificial intelligence. By investing in Arm, Nvidia could get into the market for central processing units (CPUs), which handle most other computing functions.
Nvidia, the first chipmaker to reach a $1 trillion valuation in May, recently produced its first central processing unit (CPU) using Arm’s designs. The CPU is part of a “superchip” called Grace Hopper, which is designed for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing.
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