A recent evaluation has surfaced that reveals that Bitcoin’s long-term holders are slowly easing away from their deep profits, and that this could affect prices in either way, depending on further developments.
Long-Term Holder Average Monthly SOPR Slips Under 1
In a recent QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, a pseudonymous on-chain analyst, Darkfost, reveals that Bitcoin’s long-term holders are entering a fragile phase in the current cycle. This post is based on readings obtained from the BTC: Long-Term Holders (LTH) SOPR metric, which tracks if coins moved by Long-Term Holders are done profitably, or at a loss.
A SOPR value above 1 reflects that holders of this category are, on average, realizing profits, while a reading below 1 signals that these coins are being moved at a loss. According to Darkfost, the current readings from the SOPR metric have fallen under the critical 1 level, and currently sit around 0.98
This is a sign that Bitcoin’s LTHs, which are typically the strongest investor hands in the market, are beginning to realize losses on a monthly basis. Interestingly, the scenario is somewhat different on the annual timeframe.
Annual LTH SOPR Still Positive, But Trend Is Falling — Analyst
Darkfost further highlights that, although the monthly timeframe leans towards the red zone, the annualized SOPR still sits well into positive territory, with readings at approximately 1.84. According to the analyst, this represents about 84% in average realized gains, by implication.
However, the annualized profits have taken on a downward trend and have been slowly falling. Notably, the LTH SOPR has not gone higher than 3.4 on the charts throughout the current cycle, a value that is approximately half the readings seen in the previous cycle’s peak. Interestingly, this is also less than four times the peak of the two previous cycles, suggesting a less impulsive distribution among this investor cohort.
Furthermore, Darkfost conjures historical data, showing that bear markets have formed only after the SOPR dropped towards the 0.6 region, a level that correlates with average realized losses of approximately 40%. Hence, while the current reading on the metric is below 1 every month, it is still far from the zone representing capitulation.
For now, the Long-term holders have entered what seems to be a transitional phase. In the scenario where Long-Term Holder realized profits continue to fade, selling pressure might in turn erode from this side. As of this writing, the Bitcoin price stands at a valuation of approximately $64,247, reflecting a loss of 4.85% over the past day.
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- The company lifted its 2025 operating income guidance to $40 million.
- A non-cash Bitcoin impairment of $680 million to $700 million is expected for 2025.
- Metaplanet projected a $632 million ordinary loss and $491 million net loss for 2025.
Metaplanet, a Tokyo-listed Bitcoin treasury company, has raised its revenue and operating income forecasts for 2025 and issued much higher guidance for 2026, even as it flagged a large non-cash Bitcoin write-down that is set to dominate its annual results.
In a notice released on Monday, the company said its Bitcoin income generation business is expected to deliver stronger-than-expected performance, particularly in the final quarter of the year.
However, Metaplanet also projected a steep ordinary loss and net loss for 2025, driven largely by accounting adjustments tied to Bitcoin’s valuation at year-end.
The company is scheduled to file its full-year results on Feb. 16.
Revenue upgrade driven by Bitcoin income generation
Metaplanet said it now expects 2025 revenue of 8.905 billion Japanese yen, or around $58 million, based on its updated guidance.
The company also raised its operating income forecast to $40 million, signalling improved performance at the operating level despite broader market volatility affecting its holdings.
Management said Q4 2025 revenue from its Bitcoin income generation business “is expected to significantly exceed initial projections,” which led it to lift full-year revenue guidance for that segment to about $55 million.
That compares with around $40 million previously announced, showing a sharp upgrade in the contribution from its Bitcoin-linked revenue stream.
Large impairment set to drive headline loss
Even with the stronger operating forecasts, Metaplanet expects to report a deep annual loss for 2025.
The company projected an ordinary loss of $632 million and a net loss of $491 million. These figures are largely attributed to a Bitcoin impairment loss estimated at roughly $680 million to $700 million, which is expected to be recognised in its year-end reporting.
Metaplanet explained that the impairment is a “non-cash accounting adjustment reflecting period-end price fluctuations” and said it has no direct impact on its cash flows or day-to-day operations.
The notice linked the impairment to quarter-end mark-to-market accounting treatment and referenced Bitcoin holdings valued at year-end prices, with Bitcoin shown at $87,876 in the disclosure.
BTC holdings and treasury metrics expand sharply
Metaplanet also reported rapid growth in its Bitcoin treasury business during 2025, underlining how the company has built up its exposure to Bitcoin while developing income generation activities around its holdings.
BTC holdings rose from 1,762 BTC at the end of 2024 to 35,102 BTC at the end of 2025, showing a significant increase in the company’s balance sheet allocation.
It also reported BTC yield per diluted share of 568% for the year. The company uses this metric to measure how much Bitcoin backing each diluted share has increased, offering a per-share view of its Bitcoin accumulation.
While the impairment is expected to weigh heavily on reported net results, Metaplanet’s updated figures suggest it is still expanding its treasury position and Bitcoin-linked operations at a pace.
2026 guidance rises but earnings remain uncertain
For 2026, Metaplanet forecast revenue of around $103 million and operating income of $73 million, representing a sharp step up from its 2025 targets.
The company said almost all of its 2026 revenue is expected to come from the Bitcoin income generation business, reinforcing the segment’s central role in its business model.
Metaplanet also projected selling, general and administrative expenses of about $29 million for 2026 as it ramps up operations.
However, it said it will not provide guidance for ordinary income or net income for 2026 due to the difficulty of forecasting Bitcoin prices, signalling that future reported earnings could remain volatile even if operating performance strengthens.
The company added that it publishes daily data on its BTC holdings, unrealised gains and losses, and related metrics, offering investors regular visibility into how price swings affect its treasury position.
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Bitcoin’s on-exchange supply has dropped sharply, and traders are taking note. According to Santiment, more than 403,000 BTC have left exchanges since December 7, 2024 — roughly 2% of Bitcoin’s total supply.
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That shift, measured against an on-exchange balance of about 2.11 million BTC in late November, is being seen as a sign that fewer coins are poised for quick sale.
Exchange Balances Shrink
Santiment said lower exchange balances have historically been linked with fewer sudden sell-offs, an observation many market watchers find encouraging.
The math is straightforward: when a big chunk of supply sits outside exchanges, there is less immediately available stock to meet selling pressure.
As Bitcoin’s market value hovers around $90K, crypto’s top market cap continues to see its supply moving away from exchanges. Over the past year, there has been:
A net total of -403.2K $BTC moving off exchanges
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) December 8, 2025
Institutions Step In
Based on reports from BitcoinTresuries.Net and others, exchange outflows are not only going to private cold wallets. ETFs and public firms are also accumulating.
BitBo lists ETFs holding over 1.5 million BTC and public companies holding over 1 million. Combined, those holdings represent nearly 11% of the total Bitcoin supply.
According to analysts, institutional vehicles have quietly absorbed a lot of coins, changing where Bitcoin sits and who can sell it.
Supply Moves Matter
This is more than bookkeeping. Coins locked in institutional or self-custodied vaults are not sold on a whim. That makes available supply tighter.
At the same time, coins leaving exchanges can lead to sharper price moves when demand surges because the pool of sellable coins is smaller. Some of the effects are already visible on price charts; others may show up later if buying pressure picks up.
Price Action And Macro Focus
Bitcoin traded near $90,650 with a small rise of 0.28% in recent action. Year-to-date gains stand at 11%. The market swung from a daily low of $89,540 to a high of $92,290, showing active trading around current levels.
Traders are watching a Federal Reserve meeting closely, and the outcome is expected to drive short-term volatility. Interest-rate cues often move broader markets, and crypto is no exception.
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Market Outlook And Risks
Overall, the move off exchanges looks like a bullish backdrop because it reduces immediate selling liquidity. Still, that same scarcity can make prices more sensitive to changes in demand, which raises the possibility of sharper swings.
Analysts will be watching whether ETFs and public firms continue to add to their holdings or start to slow down purchases.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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- PumpFun has surpassed Ethereum in yearly fees.
- Solana price may drop to $112 amid bearish signals.
- In the long term, SOL could hit $200-$300, buoyed by the growing Solana ecosystem.
Solana price prediction has taken centre stage as the cryptocurrency staunchly defends the $140 support level, propelled by the extraordinary success of its meme coin launchpad, PumpFun.
This platform’s recent milestone of surpassing Ethereum in yearly fees, raking in $294 million against Ethereum’s $249 million, highlights a surge in Solana’s network activity that could significantly influence SOL’s future value.
The meteoric rise of PumpFun, a platform designed for fair token launches without presales or team allocations, showcases Solana’s growing ecosystem and its appeal to traders seeking high-volume opportunities.
As Solana outpaces other blockchains in revenue generation, investors are keenly watching whether SOL can shatter its current resistance and soar to new heights.
PumpFun’s rise and its impact on Solana
By eclipsing Ethereum, PumpFun underscores Solana’s scalability and cost-effective transactions, making it a magnet for meme coin traders.
This launchpad, boasting a 24-hour transaction count of 10.41 million and a trading volume of $952.35 million according to GeckoTerminal, has emerged as a powerhouse for rapid-fire trading on the Solana network.
Top performers like LLJEFFY, stickman, and Fartcoin have fueled this momentum, achieving impressive market caps and trading volumes that reflect Solana’s bustling activity.
Beyond a passing craze, PumpFun’s success signals a deeper shift, with Solana’s infrastructure proving ideal for decentralised applications (DApps) and trading platforms.
In April alone, Solana’s DApps amassed over $162 million in revenue, a clear sign of a thriving ecosystem poised to rival giants like Ethereum.
As PumpFun continues to draw users and generate substantial fees, it cements Solana’s status as a top-tier blockchain for high-throughput applications.
This heightened adoption and investment could propel Solana’s network value, setting the stage for a bullish Solana price prediction in the months ahead.
Solana price forecast
Short-term Solana price prediction is bearish, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator hinting at a bearish crossover and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing higher lows that suggest shifting momentum.
Should SOL slip below the $140 support, a drop to $112, historically a strong buying zone, could be on the horizon.
However, the robust ecosystem growth, driven by PumpFun’s dominance and soaring revenue, lays a sturdy groundwork for a potential price recovery.
Looking further out, analysts remain upbeat about Solana’s price prediction, targeting a break above $180 as a springboard to $200 or even $300.
The weekly CMF indicator’s bullish divergence and a softening MACD selling pressure bolster this long-term optimism.
A recovery in trading volume, paired with SOL re-entering its rising parallel channel, could ignite a significant rally, outstripping other leading cryptocurrencies.
Solana’s recent fix of a confidential transfers vulnerability, resolved discreetly with zero-knowledge proofs, enhances its reputation as a resilient network.
This swift response to a critical issue, while exposing the complexities of decentralised updates, ultimately strengthens investor trust in Solana’s future.
With PumpFun’s ongoing success and potential Layer 2 innovations on the horizon, Solana price prediction leans bullish, positioning SOL as a prime contender for investors eyeing the next blockchain breakthrough.
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