Bitcoin price started a strong increase above the $70,000 zone. BTC is consolidating gains and might aim for more gains above the $71,500 zone.

• Bitcoin gained pace for a move above the $69,500 and $70,500 levels.
• The price is trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
• There was a break above a key declining channel with resistance at $68,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair might extend gains if it stays above the $70,250 and $69,500 levels.

Bitcoin Price Rallies 5%

Bitcoin price managed to climb higher above the $68,800 resistance zone. BTC gained pace for a move above the $69,500 and $70,000 levels.

Besides, there was a break above a key declining channel with resistance at $68,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The pair even rallied above the $72,000 level. A high was formed at $72,728, and the price started a downside correction. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $67,734 swing low to the $72,728 high.

Bitcoin is now trading above $70,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $70,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $72,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $72,750 level. A close above the $72,750 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $73,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $74,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $75,000.

Another Decline In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $72,750 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $70,800 level. The first major support is near the $70,250 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $67,734 swing low to the $72,728 high.

The next support is now near the $69,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $68,800 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $67,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 60 level.

Major Support Levels – $70,800, followed by $70,250.

Major Resistance Levels – $72,000 and $72,750.

Key takeaways

• BTC is down 2%, erasing the recovery earlier this week,
• US-listed spot ETF recorded an outflow of $173.73 million on Wednesday, breaking its two days of inflow this week.

Bitcoin faces continued losses amid weaker institutional demand

Bitcoin (BTC) prices continued to decline on Thursday, trading below $67,000, almost completely erasing the recovery from earlier in the week. Institutional demand also appears to be faltering, as spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) experienced a significant outflow of over $173 million on Wednesday, ending a two-day streak of inflows. 

This decline in demand coincides with a growing sense of bearish sentiment in the market, which is further amplified by US President Donald Trump’s recent remarks suggesting an escalation of the ongoing conflict.

On Wednesday, President Trump addressed the nation, warning that the ongoing conflict could drag on until late April. He stated that the US would take extreme measures over the next two to three weeks, including threats to attack Iranian power plants and send Iran back to the “stone age” if no agreement is reached.

These statements have dampened hopes for de-escalation, which in turn has reduced investor appetite for riskier assets. The US Dollar (USD) and Oil prices have risen as a result, while US equities and other risk assets have suffered, effectively erasing the gains Bitcoin saw earlier this week.

Data from CoinGlass indicates that institutional interest in Bitcoin remains uncertain. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a significant outflow of $173.73 million on Wednesday, following two days of positive inflows earlier this week. This suggests indecisiveness among institutional investors, who appear hesitant to increase exposure to risk assets amid ongoing market uncertainty.

According to Glassnode’s weekly report on Wednesday, Bitcoin remains trapped within a broad trading range of $60,000 to $70,000. While the market shows early signs of stabilization, it has not yet shown enough momentum to break decisively in either direction.

The report indicates that Bitcoin’s on-chain conditions reflect a continued period of repair, with elevated supply in loss and long-term holder capitulation still not fully resolved. However, spot demand has shown some improvement, signaling that sellers are not entirely in control of the market anymore.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC could record further losses

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as Bitcoin is trading below $66,400 on Thursday, erasing the recovery from earlier this week. The near-term bias is mildly bearish.

Bitcoin remains capped well below the clustered 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) between roughly $70,800 and $84,800, which reinforces downside pressure despite the recent bounce attempts. 

Currently, the technical indicators are bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on H4 sits at 51, just above the midline. 

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the signal line, indicating persistent selling pressure.

If the market continues its decline, sellers would meet immediate support at $65,900. Breaking this level would expose the key psychological level at $60,000.

On the flipside, if the bulls regain control of the market, they would encounter resistance at the $69,200 level, with the major resistance around $72,600. 

A daily close above $72,600 would signal a bullish break from the sideways structure and open the door toward the 100-day EMA near $76,400.

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Ethereum has reclaimed the $2,000 level after several weeks of volatile price action, offering the market a brief period of relief following sustained selling pressure across the broader crypto sector. The recovery comes as derivatives activity begins to normalize, suggesting that leverage levels may be stabilizing after months of structural shifts in the Ethereum futures market.

A recent report from CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain highlights notable developments in Ethereum’s derivatives positioning. Data from the ETH Open Interest Z-Score (30-day rolling) on Binance shows meaningful changes in market structure in recent months, particularly in how traders deploy leverage.

According to the latest reading, total open interest in Ethereum contracts on Binance has reached approximately $4.26 billion, while the 30-day moving average stands near $4.18 billion. Over the same period, the standard deviation measures roughly $285.8 million.

These figures place the Z-Score around 0.29, a moderate reading that indicates open interest currently sits close to its historical average. In practical terms, the data suggests that the market is not experiencing extreme leverage conditions.

Ethereum Derivatives Market Shows Signs of Structural Reset

The report also highlights a deeper shift unfolding in Ethereum’s derivatives market. One of the most notable signals appears in the 30-day moving average of open interest, which has declined to its lowest level since May 2025. While the headline number may look modest, the trend behind it reveals an important structural adjustment in market positioning.’

Falling open interest generally indicates that traders are closing positions faster than new ones are opening. In Ethereum’s case, the gradual decline suggests that leverage has steadily drained from the market over recent months rather than collapsing in a single liquidation event. This process often follows extended periods of volatility, when traders reduce exposure and risk appetite fades across derivatives platforms.

The change also points to a potential shift in market composition. When speculative liquidity exits futures markets, activity tends to move toward spot accumulation or lower-risk strategies. That dynamic can temporarily suppress momentum but often leaves the market structurally healthier.

In practical terms, Ethereum’s derivatives market now appears less crowded and less dependent on leveraged positioning. Historically, such resets tend to occur near transitional phases in market cycles. If new liquidity enters the market and risk appetite returns, the current reduction in leverage could provide a cleaner foundation for the next expansion in derivatives activity.

Ethereum Price Tests Critical Support After Sharp Correction

Ethereum currently trades near the $2,050 level after a sharp correction that followed the late-2025 rally. The weekly chart shows ETH recovering modestly after briefly dropping below the psychological $2,000 mark, a level that has historically acted as an important support and resistance zone during previous market cycles.

The broader structure suggests that Ethereum remains in a corrective phase after peaking near the $4,800 region in 2025. Since that high, the market has printed a sequence of lower highs and declining momentum, reflecting a shift in market sentiment as macro conditions and crypto liquidity tightened.

Technically, ETH now sits below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, which currently act as overhead resistance in the $2,800–$3,000 range. The 200-week moving average near $2,450 also represents a key structural level that the market recently lost during the sell-off. Losing that long-term support accelerated downside volatility and triggered the high-volume capitulation visible on the chart.

Despite the bearish pressure, the recent bounce near $1,900 suggests buyers are defending the lower range of the current structure. If Ethereum manages to reclaim the 200-week moving average, the market could attempt a broader recovery toward the $2,800 resistance zone.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

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After dipping below $1,800 earlier in the month, the price of Ethereum has since reclaimed the $2,000 level, which is considered a psychological support zone for many traders. Over the past week, though, the price showed mild downward pressure, struggling to hold sustainably above the $2,000 level.

Whale Activity Signals Potential Volatility Surge In Ethereum Markets

In a post on the X platform, crypto analyst Joao Wedson stated that there has been a major shift in the behavior of Ethereum’s large holders. The market pundit also pointed out that something deeper may be happening under the surface.

Whales continue to distribute and sell Ethereum.

Addresses holding between 100K and 1 million ETH have drastically reduced their reserves over the past 90 days. That is a significant and curious shift.

What stands out even more is that a large portion of this reduction is not… pic.twitter.com/UBlikDUQf3

— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) February 27, 2026

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Wedson asserted that wallet addresses holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 ETH have significantly reduced their holdings over the past 90 days, showing that big holders are selling or moving large amounts of ETH. What’s more interesting is that this shave-off is happening from non-exchange whale wallets.

Whales continue to distribute and sell Ethereum.

Addresses holding between 100K and 1 million ETH have drastically reduced their reserves over the past 90 days. That is a significant and curious shift.

What stands out even more is that a large portion of this reduction is not… pic.twitter.com/UBlikDUQf3

— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) February 27, 2026

In other words, major private ETH holders, institutions, or early investors may be actively decreasing their exposure, and this could indicate profit-taking, risk-off positioning, or preparation for volatility. All in all, Wedson noted that when this group of whales begins to unwind positions, it often means that a structural shift is occurring beneath the surface.

As of this writing, the price of Ethereum stands at around $2,010, showing an almost 5% jump in the past 24 hours.

Slumping Global Backdrop Affecting ETH Most

According to a recent on-chain observation, this strategic move by ETH large holders could be connected to the worsening macroeconomic conditions. Pseudonymous analyst Darkfost, in a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, revealed that the global economic backdrop is slowly losing momentum, and Ethereum seems to be the most impacted altcoin so far.

Starting with the risk-off global climate, Darkfost referenced the core Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation at the wholesale level. The Core PPI MoM at +0.8% confirmed persistence of inflation, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates soon, which is unfavorable for risk assets.

On top of that, the rising tension between the United States and Iran increases geopolitical uncertainty. On Saturday, the US and Israel announced military actions against Iran, which sent crypto prices tumbling on the weekend.

However, Ethereum’s Open Interest (OI) on all exchanges dropped from 7.79 million ETH to 5.8 million ETH, with about 2 million of that figure concentrated on Binance.  This exposes that traders are closing positions and leverage is being reduced, with exposure to ETH also shrinking.

Additionally, the Notional OI, which measures the total dollar value of open contracts, experienced a sharper drop as positions were closed. For instance, Binance’s Open Interest dropped from over $12.6 billion to $4.1 billion, while Bybit’s cut by two-thirds to $1.9 billion. This shows broad deleveraging across the entire market and not just one platform.

Overall, the Ethereum derivatives market is shrinking, as traders are unwinding leverage in response to macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures. Moreover, the current market condition hasn’t been particularly encouraging for investor risk appetite — as seen with the ETH whales.

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Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView