Bitcoin entrepreneur John Carvalho might be on to something. In a recent episode of the Tales from the Crypt podcast, he posed his theory on why did China shot itself in the foot by banning Bitcoin mining early in the year. We at NewsBTC have been racking our brains trying to come up with possible reasons for the bizarre decision.

Are they making way for their CBDC? Is the CPC cutting the wings of Chinese Billionaires in all areas? Were they already losing the hashpower battle? Is China having energy problems? Is this an ESG issue? Were they closing the exit ramps before the Evergrande collapse? Is Bitcoin just too dangerous? Why would they retire from a billion Dollar business that they controlled? Why? WHY?

It has been a long time since I last joined TFTC to chat.

I had a great time discussing misc Bitcoin and “good morning tweet” topics.

Check it out! https://t.co/TVbOEjHWFD

— John Carvalho (@BitcoinErrorLog) November 2, 2021

The interviewee summarizes our position with one phrase, “I refuse to believe that China is stupid.” According to Carvalho, they’ve made too much money in the mining business alone, and they also control the ASICs manufacturers. Not only that, mining machines inflate the value of chips. And they control that business too, alongside Taiwan and South Korea. Why would they shoot the goose that laid the golden eggs? It just doesn’t make sense… unless…

Carvalho’s Mind Blowin Theory

Warning: the following text is full of speculation and assumptions. “I can easily be wrong,” was one of the first things Carvalho said. He doesn’t have any proof that this is what’s happening and neither does NewsBTC. Let’s take it as a thought exercise. This is how Carvalho would “play the game,” though. And if he could come up with that plan, so did the CCP leaders. 

According to Carvalho, every cycle China manipulates the Bitcoin price to get more BTC. They sell, use the collateral to short Bitcoin, and reaccumulate when the bear market arrives. This time, though, China was facing a more mature and sophisticated market. Their FUD techniques were not working. People weren’t falling for their tricks. So, they had to turn it up a few notches.

The main ASIC manufacturer, the Chinese company Bitmain, had a new generation of miners ready. So, the CCP “decided to create a demand for the aftermaket and combine it with the FUD.” As they usually do, they sold their Bitcoin and made their shorts. Then, China banned Bitcoin mining and the whole country turned off the ASICs. The world perceived the ban as real, just “look at the hashrate.” This is the first time this happens. Then, China sold a small portion of its ASICs to the USA.

According to the latest stats, the USA now provides the biggest percentage of Bitcoin’s hashrate… or does it? “Everybody has this narrative where China has stupidly left mining and giving it to the US,” Carvalho said unconvinced. A few months after the China ban, American mining companies are suddenly on everyone’s radars. But, is this really what’s going on?

If The Theory Holds Up, China Will Come Back To The Mining Game

This is price manipulation on another scale. China figured out a way to get more Bitcoin both against traders and against buyers of ASICs in other countries. They got rid of the old equipment, and Bitmain will provide new machines soon enough. Then, China’ll buy back their Bitcoin and turn their next-gen ASICs on. According to Carvalho, maybe they already did, and they’re just not signing blocks or signing their blocks differently. If this is true, they’ll unban Bitcoin mining soon enough, and spin a “the resurrection of Asian mining” narrative.

The Tales From The Crypt host, Marty Bent, is not convinced. He argues that we have to separate CCP from the individual Chinese miners. It’s worth noting that Bitcoin mining is Bent’s field of expertise. He is himself a miner and is involved with some major Bitcoin mining companies.

According to Bent, there definitely have been mining farms that operated in mainland China and moved to the US. And sizable operations, at that. He thinks that maybe the Chinese didn’t move all the hashrate to the U.S., but they definitely moved “a material ammount.” He also believes that, even after the ban, there’s definitely hashrate still in China.

According to Carvalho, there’s anecdotal evidence that contradicts the theory, but it’s only anecdotal. “We don’t have enough information about China,” he says. Bent agrees and adds that, due to the permissionless nature of the Bitcoin network, we can never truly know what’s happening. However, “foreign buyers are getting access to new gen miners.” At least to the preorders. Take that for what it’s worth. 

BTC price chart for 11/08/2021 on Bittrex | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com

Conclusion And Other China Theories

According to Carvalho, using web traffic measuring tools, you could check that traffic to the Chinese mining pools is roughly the same as before the ban. The signing of blocks is manipulatable. “The only reason we know who mines what is because they say they mined it,” he says. What does this mean? Are the Chinese already mining? Is there an increase in unsigned blocks? Or are they just signing them as non-Chinese entities? They could’ve been planning this for a long time, setting the pieces in place. 

The TFTC host poses an alternative theory. This one’s based on his conversation with Edwar Evenson from Braiins, who lived in China. According to Evenson, this year marked the 100th anniversary of the CCP, and the theme of the celebration is “harmony.” And, sadly, they consider Bitcoin mining as unharmonious. That’s the reason they banned it. Once the anniversary passes, they’ll quietly allow it back.

Maybe, but according to Carvalho, the Chinese quietly returning to mining is exactly what would happen if any of the two theories are true. He admits that, to confirm his theory, serious research that he can’t perform needs to be done. So, he leaves it open to the public to step up and do it. NewsBTC did its part by publishing this article. It’s your turn now. 

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What is the new “China Model”? And why would that country ban an industry that made them the ultimate leaders in the most important development in recent times? The world is still scratching its head. There has to be something else to this story. Is it only control that they want? Or does China have a secret plan nobody’s been able to figure out?

We at NewsBTC have been studying the case, looking for clues, reporting on related news. After the ban, when Bitcoin’s hash rate collapsed, we posed Bitcoin Magazine’s Lucas Nuzzi’s theory that it all had to do with the Digital Yuan, China’s CBDC. Then, we found out Chinese entrepreneurs are selling small hydropower stations and wondered if decommissioning them was part of their plan. After that, the shocking reveal that China’s dominance over Bitcoin mining was already waning before the ban raised more questions than answers.

The fine people at Bloomberg might’ve found new clues by tackling a related but different question. In the article titled “The China Model: What the Country’s Tech Crackdown Is Really About,” they pose a theory about the reasons behind the government’s attack on Alibaba and DiDi. Two of China’s giant unicorn tech companies, also world leaders in their respective fields. Bloomberg thinks that, after following Silicon Valley’s footsteps for years, China is trying a new model.

Do they have a case or do China’s motives remain a mystery for us westerners? Keep reading to find out.

What Does The New China Model Consists Of?

The article starts by summarizing what happened when Uber-clone DiDi and “Alibaba’s fintech offshoot, Ant Group Co.” tried to go public in the United States. The Chinese government started actions against both companies. Alibaba’s Jack Ma disappeared from the public eye as a result.  

“Just because you are a highly successful tech company does not mean you are above the CCP,” says Michael Witt, a senior affiliate professor of strategy and international business at Insead in Singapore. “Ant Group and Jack Ma found that out for themselves last year, and it is surprising DiDi did not get the message.”

What does this “China Model” have to do with Bitcoin mining? Well, the Chinese government seems to be cracking down on everything huge and technological that isn’t aligned with their interests. And we in the industry know how much Bitcoin those immense mines were producing.

“China is actually taking the lead in setting some boundaries around the power of Big Tech,” says Thomas Tsao, co-founder of Gobi Partners, a venture capital firm based in Shanghai. “People are missing the bigger picture. They’re trying a new model.”

Is Size the Problem For The Chinese Government?

As we learned when we analyzed the “The Death Of China’s Bitcoin Mining Industry” article, individuals can still mine. China only banned industrial Bitcoin mining.

“Despite the government’s hardline approach, Ye is determined to carry on: “This industry is extremely volatile. High emotions and stress are involved, but that’s also its appeal. Companies are banned from mining Bitcoin, but individuals aren’t,” Ye said, adding that he plans to turn around his operation by purchasing old equipment and downsizing.”

The Chinese government was only worried about industrial-sized private mining operations. The question is why. What are they planning? 

The Chinese government seems to be playing a similar game when it comes to Big Tech.

Andy Tian, who led Google China’s mobile strategy in the 2000s and is now CEO at Beijing social media startup Asian Innovations Group, says it will be “positive for innovation” and “competition in China will be fiercer than in the U.S.,” because smaller companies will benefit from policies that rein in the largest competitors.

And they’re using the country’s unique characteristics to do this fast and mercilessly.

Angela Zhang, director of Hong Kong University’s Centre for Chinese Law and the author of Chinese Antitrust Exceptionalism, says the intervention will reshape the tech industry in China faster than it could happen elsewhere. “The case against Alibaba took the Chinese antitrust authority only four months to complete, whereas it will take years for U.S. and EU regulators to go after tech firms such as Facebook, Google, and Amazon, who are ready to fight tooth and nail,” she says.

BTC price chart for 08/10/2021 on Coinbase | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com

What Does The New China Model Want To Achieve?

This is where Bloomberg’s case falls flat. They have no idea what the Chinese are thinking.

If China is abandoning the Silicon Valley model, what will it replace it with? Insiders suggest it will be less founder-driven and more China-centric.

Why is China dwarfing its biggest industries and players? Is the “China Model” just concerned with scale? Or is control their focus? Are they cracking down on people and companies with too much power that work on a global scale? We wouldn’t know. However, this paragraph’s facts and assumptions could provide a clue.

Xi has called the data its tech industry collects “an essential and strategic resource” and has been pushing to tap into it for years. Following a 2015 mandate, cities from Guiyang to Shanghai have set up data exchanges that facilitate the transfer of anonymized information between corporations. This could lead to a nationalized data-sharing system that serves as a kind of digital public infrastructure, putting a massive trove of data into the central government’s hands.

Is it data they’re after? Does Bitcoin’s pseudo-anonymity scare them? Is their crackdown on Big Tech even related to their crackdown on Bitcoin mining? There’s only one thing we can know for sure: China’s making big coordinated moves when it comes to tech. And they seem to have a plan. A new “China Model,” if you will.

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