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On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed how the latest Ethereum cycle never reached a profitability threshold cleared in previous bull runs.

Ethereum Has Seen Its Profitability Profile Compress This Cycle

In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about how the share of supply carrying a gain of more than 300% is currently looking on the Ethereum blockchain. Below is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in this metric.

The value of the indicator seems to have gone down over the last few years | Source: Glassnode on X

From the graph, it’s visible that the Ethereum supply sitting at a 3x profit has declined recently and hit the 11% mark. This suggests that just over a tenth of the cryptocurrency’s supply in circulation is in a significant gain at the current spot price.

The reason behind this supply being at a low level is naturally in part due to the bearish market conditions. It alone, however, can’t explain just how low the indicator is. It’s apparent in the chart that the last time that the network saw this supply occupy a lower share was all the way back in February 2017. Both the 2019 and 2022 bear markets never saw profitability this bad.

In fact, bear market levels isn’t all that has differed in the current cycle. In the previous two cycles, the 3x profit supply crossed the 50% level during the bullish phase. This cycle never saw the metric break the 30% mark, let alone approach the 50% threshold. “ETH’s profitability profile has fundamentally compressed relative to prior cycles,” noted Glassnode.

In related news, Ethereum and other assets have faced a steep drawdown recently that has had a notable effect on short-term investor profitability. On-chain analytics firm Santiment has shared in an X post the data related to how the various top coins have compared in terms of this.

The metric cited by Santiment is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, which is a popular indicator for gauging the profit-loss status of holders as a whole. Here, the analytics firm has specifically used the version of the MVRV Ratio tracking the profitability of buyers from the last 30 days.

The trend in the 30-day MVRV Ratio for BTC, ETH, ADA, XRP, and LINK | Source: Santiment on X

As displayed in the above chart, Ethereum, Bitcoin, and other assets saw the 30-day MVRV Ratio plummet to a deep value as the market crash played out. With the rebound that has followed since then, however, the situation has improved a bit for buyers from the past month.

That said, losses continue to be significant for this group. The 30-day MVRV Ratio is currently sitting at -10% for BTC and -12% for ETH. The analytics firm explained:

When the average trader is sitting on significant losses across networks that are normally hovering at 0% (zero sum game), selling pressure often becomes exhausted as weak hands capitulate and long-term investors begin accumulating.

ETH Price

Ethereum had fallen near the $1,500 level during the weekend, but the coin has since bounced back as its value is now sitting around $1,680.

Looks like the price of the coin has bounced back a bit | Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

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CoinShares has laid out a five-year valuation framework for Ethereum that puts ETH at $14,135 by 2031 in its bull case, arguing that the asset’s long-term value now depends less on base-layer fees and more on its role as money, collateral and settlement infrastructure across the Ethereum economy.

How High And Low Could Ethereum Go By 2031?

The report, written by Luke Nolan, CoinShares’ senior research associate for Ethereum, frames ETH through a sum-of-parts model combining a cash-flow valuation, a monetary premium valuation and an additional network/speculative overlay. The headline outputs are wide: a bear case of roughly $1,443 by 2031, a base case of $4,935 and a bull case of $14,135, implying annualized returns of -9%, 16% and 43%, respectively, from current spot levels.

Ethereum is getting harder to value.

After Dencun, fees collapsed, but network usage kept growing. Our latest research by Luke Nolan (@eazygambit) introduces a 5-year sum-of-parts framework for ETH, combining cash flows, monetary premium, and network effects.

Base case: ~$4,935… pic.twitter.com/dd938gknAR

— CoinShares (@CoinSharesCo) June 2, 2026

The central premise is that Ethereum has become harder to value after Dencun. CoinShares notes that the upgrade moved execution activity away from the base layer and toward layer-2 networks, pushing user costs down and throughput higher, but also sharply reducing the fee revenue that had previously supported ETH’s “ultrasound money” narrative. Weekly fees that peaked above $200 million in early 2024 now run closer to $10 million, even as monthly active users have roughly doubled over the same period.

“Ether is not a tech stock and it is not digital gold,” the report states. “It is the native asset of a permissionless platform on which builders can deploy essentially anything, drawing on decentralised security, leading liquidity, and global access. Within that ecosystem, ether also functions as money and as collateral.”

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That distinction drives the structure of the model. CoinShares’ first framework treats Ethereum like a business selling blockspace, projecting fee revenue across DEX trading, stablecoin transfers, DeFi activity, blob transactions, ETH transfers, real-world asset settlement, staking operations and a residual “other” category. In that framework, the contribution to ETH’s 2031 price is modest: $25 in the bear case, $385 in the base case and $2,055 in the bull case.

Ethereum’s Future Depends On A Monetary Premium

The second framework carries much more weight. It treats ETH as the monetary and collateral base of the Ethereum ecosystem, modeling demand from staking, DeFi collateral, layer-2 reserves, ETF inflows, corporate treasury allocations and store-of-value buying. CoinShares says this component produces a 2031 price contribution of $1,774 in the bear case, $3,960 in the base case and $10,065 in the bull case.

Across the report, the bull case is deliberately demanding. It assumes Ethereum’s structural demand sources compound at elevated levels, rather than merely stabilize. CoinShares models fee revenue reaching $5.7 billion by 2031, supported by DEX volumes growing at a 25% CAGR and Ethereum L1 market share expanding to 35%. Stablecoin supply, in this scenario, reaches $2.8 trillion at a 50% CAGR, while tokenized real-world assets scale to $420 billion on Ethereum specifically.

ETF flows are also a major variable. In the bull case, CoinShares assumes annual ETF flows reach $40 billion by 2031, while corporate buying rises to $25 billion and store-of-value demand grows meaningfully as the asset class matures. A 3x regime multiplier is then applied to buying pressure, reflecting a market environment with fewer willing sellers and stronger price discovery.

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“The bull case requires the six demand catalysts identified in section 4 to compound at high levels, with Ethereum increasing its market share over time as opposed to maintaining it,” CoinShares wrote. “One might consider this scenario an ‘everything has worked out perfectly and more’ scenario.”

The base case is more restrained, but still constructive. It assumes Ethereum remains the dominant smart contract blockchain, DEX volumes grow at a 17% CAGR, L1 DEX share holds at 20%, stablecoin supply on Ethereum reaches around $450 billion by 2031 and DeFi TVL compounds at 25%. That path gives ETH a $4,935 implied price by 2031, or roughly 110% upside over five years.

CoinShares says the greatest probability lies somewhere between the base and bull cases. The report argues Ethereum does not need to win every category to clear the base-case target, but it does need to hold DEX share, maintain its stablecoin position, deliver scaling upgrades such as Glamsterdam, and see ETH ETF flows improve toward bitcoin-adjusted levels.

The key risk is that Ethereum’s post-Dencun economics remain unresolved. CoinShares explicitly flags weak fee revenue, uncertain blob mechanics, competitive pressure from alternative layer-1s, regulatory friction, monetary policy changes and delayed scaling milestones as variables that could force the model to be revisited.

At press time, ETH traded at $1,870.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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Ethereum (ETH) has struggled through the first quarter of the year and the opening stretch of the second, but it has managed to hold a crucial line near the $2,000 mark. 

A new report from market expert Sam Daodu breaks down three potential paths for ETH for the remainder of 2026, with each scenario tied to catalysts that could push the network’s leading altcoin back above $4,000.

Bullish Pathway For Ethereum

Daodu’s analysis starts with the price action. Ethereum, he notes, has been trending downward since the start of the year, with only a short-lived recovery. ETH began 2026 around $3,100, later sank to a low of $1,743 in February—its weakest point since early 2023. 

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After that, the token has spent much of the year moving sideways between roughly $2,000 and $2,400, suggesting consolidation rather than a clear rebound. A key driver in the report is the upcoming Glamsterdam upgrade, which Daodu says could be the deciding factor for whether ETH revisits the $4,000 level during 2026. 

In his bullish scenario, Glamsterdam is assumed to launch on schedule in June. The upgrade would cut gas fees by 78.6% and lift throughput to as much as 10,000 transactions per second. 

At the same time, the news around the upgrade is expected to accelerate Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, and the report also assumes Bitcoin (BTC) breaks above $90,000. With those conditions in place, Daodu suggests ETH could move above $4,000 in the third quarter, and finish the year between $5,000-$7,500.

ETH Could Retest The February 2026 Low

In the base case, the story is more subdued. Daodu expects Glamsterdam to ship, but with no strong immediate market reaction. ETF inflows remain positive but slow, and Bitcoin is assumed to rise above $85,000 without delivering a decisive breakout that would strongly re-ignite risk appetite. 

Under this scenario, Ethereum is still projected to clear $3,000 in the third quarter, then test $4,000 in the last stretch of 2026. The year-end outcome, however, is more restrained: ETH would close between $3,000 and $4,200. 

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The bear case is built around delays and macro pressure. Daodu assumes Glamsterdam is either pushed back until the last quarter of the year or launches with deployment bugs. 

He also adds a more risk-off environment by projecting that Bitcoin could fall below $70,000, driven by inflation data or renewed hawkishness from the Federal Reserve (Fed), along with ETF outflows returning. 

If those assumptions play out, ETH would likely fail to hold current support and break below $2,085. From there, the report suggests Ethereum could retest the February 2026 low near $1,743, and then end the year at or below today’s price. 

In this bearish scenario, the idea of Ethereum moving past $4,000 would likely shift into a 2027 discussion rather than remaining a 2026 target. For now, the leading altcoin trades at $2,134. 

Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

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