Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to reclaim a crucial level as support, which could propel its price to its local range high. A market watcher suggests that this week’s performance could set the tone for the rest of the month.

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Bitcoin Retest Eyes Massive Rally

After losing the $106,800 level last week, Bitcoin has been trying to reclaim this crucial area as support. This recently lost level served as a key support for BTC following its rally to a new all-time high (ATH), with its price hovering between $106,800 and $109,700 before the market retracement.

However, the flagship crypto dropped over 8% from its $111,980 high amid last week’s pullback, hitting a 10-day low near the $102,000 support over the weekend. This week, BTC has recovered the $105,000 range and surged above the $106,500 mark before being rejected from the crucial horizontal level on Tuesday morning.

Despite the recent performance, Bitcoin recorded its highest monthly close in history, after ending May at $104,591, and remains within its local range between $103,000 and $110,000.

Analyst Crypto Jelle noted that as the cryptocurrency tries to reclaim the $105,000-$106,000 area, the 1.618 Fibonacci level suggests the next target sits around the $130,000 barrier.

Moreover, he highlighted Bitcoin’s performance this cycle, pointing out that it is displaying a similar performance to its Q4 2024 rally. Notably, the cryptocurrency recorded a trend breakout, followed by a “post-breakout chop” before surging to new highs.

Jelle suggested that Bitcoin is in the second stage, after recently breaking out of its early 2025 downtrend line. He also affirmed that Bitcoin’s Power of 3 (Po3) setup is “still in play” despite the rally pause, targeting the $140,000-$150,000 level during the formation’s price expansion phase.

Based on this formation, the cryptocurrency only has “one last speed bump,” reclaiming the previous ATH levels, before surging to a new high.

BTC’s Direction To Be Determined Soon?

Market watcher Daan Crypto Trades affirmed that the cryptocurrency will likely have an “interesting” week and month ahead, as its sideways move has allowed for “a ton of positions that have built up on both sides.”

According to the trader, this suggests there will be “a lot of fuel when price starts trending and breaks out of this local consolidation.”

Previously, he asserted that BTC tends to set the monthly high or low during the first week of the month, followed by a reversal in the other direction and a trend continuation until the new month.

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Based on this, he considers that if Bitcoin doesn’t hold the current levels in the coming days, it could drop below the $100,000 mark, near the $98,000 support zone, before bouncing.

On the contrary, a significant price jump this week could indicate a price retest of the range lows during the rest of the month.

As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $105,889, a 1% increase in the daily timeframe.

Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

• Bitcoin’s value has risen over 400% between 2020 and 2024
• Solana has increased in value by nearly 4,500% from $1.49 to around $166 in four years
• This trajectory of positivity will continue beyond the 2024 US elections, according to Matt Hougan

Bitwise’s CIO has said while Washington can alter the trajectory of the crypto market by speeding things up or slowing them down, it can’t stop it.

In his latest client memo, Matt Hougan wrote about crypto in an election year, claiming that crypto has already won, regardless of who becomes the next President of the United States.

Comparing the state of the crypto market from November 2020 to November 2024, Hougan questioned whether things are better or worse since the last time Americans went to the polls.

Despite several lawsuits from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) – notably against Binance, Coinbase, Cumberland DRW, Kraken, and Ripple – the crypto industry has made significant progress.

A four-year difference

Looking between the two US elections, Hougan points out that Bitcoin was trading at $13,677 in November 2020. Fast-forward to November 2024 and Bitcoin is valued at around $69,492, indicating a 408% change.

Ethereum has also seen a positive increase from its humble $388 in 2020 to its now $2,492 in the runup to the 2024 US election. However, it’s Solana that has seen a major increase in price rising nearly 11,000% from $1.49 in 2020 to around $166 in 2024.

Turning to assets under management (AUM), Hougan shows that stablecoin AUM rose from $3.87 billion in November 2020 to $177.83 billion in November 2024, representing a near 4,500% change.

Decentralized finance (DeFi) total value locked (TVL) also experienced a healthy boost, jumping from $9.57 billion in 2020 to $139.3 billion in 2024.

“We focus so much in crypto on the moment-by-moment movement of prices that we often lose sight of the long-term trends,” Hougan wrote. “The presidential election provides a nice opportunity to step back and see how far we’ve come.”

What next?

So much has already happened in the crypto market over four years, but will that continue as the market goes beyond the 2024 US election?

In Hougan’s view, the answer is yes. Regardless of who becomes the next POTUS, Hougan said – among other things – that spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) inflows will continue, stablecoins will continue to grow, Wall Street will continue to embrace tokenization and real-world assets, blockchains will get faster and cheaper, and real-world applications such as Polymarket will gain mainstream adoption.

“What happens in Tuesday’s election matters, particularly in the short term,” said Hougan. “But as I see it, over the long term Tuesday will prove to be something between a speed bump and a wind gust. Neither is going to stop this train.”