Crypto market analyst Marmot has sounded the alarm on the latest Bitcoin price surge, warning that the cryptocurrency’s rally above $70,000 is a “very, very bad” signal. He argues that Bitcoin has not flipped into bullish territory, urging investors and traders not to mistake the recent rebound as a sign of sustained recovery. Based on his technical analysis, Marmot believes that Bitcoin is yet to reach its true bottom, warning that the flagship cryptocurrency could still face another sharp decline.

Why The Bitcoin Price Rebound Above $70,000 Is Bad

Marmot has called Bitcoin’s price rebound above $74,000 a trap. In a post on X, he emphasized how dire the situation surrounding BTC is, suggesting that the market could be headed for a deeper pullback to new lows once the uptrend reverses. The analyst noted that Bitcoin’s pump above $72,000 was not without reason, highlighting that the bounce was a carefully designed whale trap to attract retail buyers before a broader sell-off.

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Marmot urged investors not to mistake this relief rally as the beginning of a new bull run. He noted that similar rallies have historically lured traders into poorly timed entries, only to be flushed out. The analyst also outlined why 90% of BTC traders typically get wiped out in November 2026, when previous bear market cycles bottomed. 

According to Marmot, during a bear market, Bitcoin often experiences bull traps, in which sudden price pumps create the illusion that the downtrend has ended. This move tends to fuel hope and trigger FOMO among investors, leading many to buy into the rebound.  Once this happens, Bitcoin’s price reverses sharply to the downside, often falling back to levels it reached before the rally began, triggering heavy liquidations. 

The analyst emphasized that, beneath the recent price strength, global liquidity is drying up as institutions quietly exit the market to limit downside risk. With weaker demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions weighing heavily on market sentiment, Marmot believes Bitcoin’s bear market bottom is still very far away. 

Timeline And Target For Bitcoin’s Price Bottom

In his chart analysis, Marmot referenced past cycles, noting that Bitcoin has historically experienced long drawdowns before forming a bottom. He pointed out that in 2012, Bitcoin traded sideways for up to 405 days before it hit a bottom. In the 2026 cycle, the cryptocurrency found a price floor after about 362 days, and finally, in 2020, the market declined for roughly 376 days before reaching a bottom. 

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Based on this historical bear market pattern, Marmot estimates that Bitcoin’s capitulation phase in this cycle could occur between July and November 2026. His chart shows that BTC’s price could rise even higher above $78,000 before experiencing a final pullback below $54,000, where it may likely find its true bottom.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above the $110,500 zone. BTC is now up over 5%, traded to a new high, and extend gains above the $116,000 level.

• Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $112,500 zone.
• The price is trading above $113,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
• There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $111,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair could continue to rise if it clears the $116,800 resistance zone.

Bitcoin Price Sets New ATH

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase after it cleared the $110,500 resistance zone. BTC gained pace for a move above the $112,000 and $113,500 resistance.

Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $111,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The bulls even pumped the pair above the $115,000 resistance zone. A new all-time high was formed at $116,800 and the price is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $110,600 swing low to the $116,800 high.

Bitcoin is now trading above $113,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $116,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $116,200 level. The next resistance could be $116,800.

A close above the $116,800 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $118,000 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $118,800 level. The main target could be $120,000.

Downside Correction In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $116,800 resistance zone, it could start a downside correction. Immediate support is near the $115,300 level. The first major support is near the $113,700 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $110,600 swing low to the $116,800 high.

The next support is now near the $113,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $112,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $110,500, below which BTC might continue to move down.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $115,300, followed by $113,700.

Major Resistance Levels – $116,800 and $118,000.