Semilore is drawn to the efficiency of digital assets in terms of storing, and transferring value. He is a staunch advocate for the adoption of cryptocurrency as he believes it can improve the digitalization and transparency of the existing financial systems.

In two years of active crypto writing, Semilore has covered multiple aspects of the digital asset space including blockchains, decentralized finance (DeFi), staking, non-fungible tokens (NFT), regulations and network upgrades among others.

In his early years, Semilore honed his skills as a content writer, curating educational articles that catered to a wide audience. His pieces were particularly valuable for individuals new to the crypto space, offering insightful explanations that demystified the world of digital currencies.

Semilore also curated pieces for veteran crypto users ensuring they were up to date with the latest blockchains, decentralized applications and network updates. This foundation in educational writing has continued to inform his work, ensuring that his current work remains accessible, accurate and informative.

Currently at NewsBTC, Semilore is dedicated to reporting the latest news on cryptocurrency price action, on-chain developments and whale activity. He also covers the latest token analysis and price predictions by top market experts thus providing readers with potentially insightful and actionable information.

Through his meticulous research and engaging writing style, Semilore strives to establish himself as a trusted source in the crypto journalism field to inform and educate his audience on the latest trends and developments in the rapidly evolving world of digital assets.

Outside his work, Semilore possesses other passions like all individuals. He is a big music fan with an interest in almost every genre. He can be described as a “music nomad” always ready to listen to new artists and explore new trends.

Semilore Faleti is also a strong advocate for social justice, preaching fairness, inclusivity, and equity. He actively promotes the engagement of issues centred around systemic inequalities and all forms of discrimination.

He also promotes political participation by all persons at all levels. He believes active contribution to governmental systems and policies is the fastest and most effective way to bring about permanent positive change in any society.

In conclusion, Semilore Faleti exemplifies the convergence of expertise, passion, and advocacy in the world of crypto journalism. He is a rare individual whose work in documenting the evolution of cryptocurrency will remain relevant for years to come.

His dedication to demystifying digital assets and advocating for their adoption, combined with his commitment to social justice and political engagement, positions him as a dynamic and influential voice in the industry.

Whether through his meticulous reporting at NewsBTC or his fervent promotion of fairness and equity, Semilore continues to inform, educate, and inspire his audience, striving for a more transparent and inclusive financial future.

Key Takeaways

• The next Bitcoin halving is slated for April 2024, the fourth of Bitcoin’s existence
• Litecoin has just undergone its fourth halving, but the price effects of Litecoin halvings in the past have not been as strong
• Sample size is small meaning it is hard to conclude with confidence whether halvings have tangible price effects in the short-term
• Bitcoin is a very different proposition to Litecoin, but the price action going forward of the latter will be interesting to track as we approach Bitcoin’s next halving in April 2024

Whether Bitcoin halvings are priced in has become a fervent topic of debate among the community. We put together an analysis of this question a few weeks ago, as we now fast approach the fourth halving of Bitcoin’s young life. 

Slated for April 2024, the halving will cut the Bitcoin block subsidy from 6.25 Bitcoins to 3.125 Bitcoins per block, halving the issuance rate of newly created supply.

We will not rehash (pun intended!) our aforementioned analysis of the upcoming halving here. Instead, we will focus on another coin: Litecoin. One of the world’s first altcoins, it is a derivative of Bitcoin and, intriguingly, just underwent the fourth halving of its life. 

Can Litecoin therefore be seen as a guinea pig ahead of Bitcoin’s own halving next year? Well, not really, but we may be able to gain certain insights. 

First, let us examine Litecoin’s performance through past halvings. Price data is quite illiquid prior to 2015, so the below chart omits the first halving. 

The log scale of the chart somewhat obscures it, but the second halving in 2015 preceded strong price performance for Litecoin. On the other hand, the third halving in 2019 saw falling prices, before the trend reversed after COVID struck in 2020, when the entire crypto sector surged into the mainstream. 

It is too soon to draw conclusions regarding the fourth halving, which occured just over a week ago on August 5th. Nevertheless, Litecoin’s halvings don’t offer compelling evidence of a strong relationship thus far at least. Furthermore, like most questions in crypto, the sample size is so small that even if they did precipitate aggressive price rises immediately, that would not necessarily mean there is causation.  

Bitcoin is not Litecoin, but again, we may be able to derive clues from the pattern in ascertaining the effect of halvings on the former, even if we can’t be confident given the sample size issues. First, let us now look at Bitcoin’s price action while marking the halving events:

The pattern is clear. Typically, we have seen outsized volatility in the months leading up to a halving, before strong outperformance on the other side. The outperformance has also grown smaller with each halving, perhaps unsurprising given the market cap has grown so much in the four years between each event.  

So, why has the effect of halvings on Bitcoin been, at least optically, larger than the same events on Litecoin? The first theory takes us to the heart of the debate on whether halvings are really priced in: while previous events have preceded steep inclines for Bitcoin, they have also lined up well with global liquidity cycles. 

The below chart from Fidelity shows this well. There is perhaps no greater influence on the valuations of risk assets than central bank balance sheets, and the halvings have lined up incredibly well with the expansion of those same balance sheets. 

The thing is, the next halving could well line up with an expansion in liquidity again. The previous eighteen months have seen one of the fastest rate-hiking cycles in recent history, with the Fed funds rate now above 5%. Now, looking at probabilities implied by the futures market, the market is anticipating that the hikes are coming to a close (if they haven’t done so already). 

Looking further forward towards the time period around the halving (April), futures imply that rate cuts could come into play. Not to mention, when we look at the yield curve, it is currently at the deepest level of inversion since the early 80s. The bottom line is this: the fourth halving, through sheer chance, could again line up miraculously well with global liquidity cycles. 

Of course, the macro situation has been changing incessantly, and there is every chance that forecasts around the liquidity cycle could flip, and the halving won’t line up as well as it has done in the past. 

This is where Litecoin may come in. With its halvings landing at different dates to Bitcoin in the past, yet not boosting prices as much as the orange coin saw, perhaps it is just a timing thing, whether macro-related or other? Looking at Litecoin’s price action compared to Bitcoin, the duo are tightly correlated, like many altcoins in the space. If Litecoin’s halving does not cause a slight outperformance this time compared to Bitcoin or other coins, what would be the explanation? 

Ultimately, like we keep saying, the sample size is small. Bitcoin has only experienced three halvings, and one could even argue that it was only the recent event in 2020 that occurred while the asset was trading with sufficient liquidity. 

Litecoin’s less explosive price action after its own halvings do perhaps throw further doubt on the theory that a 50% cut to the new supply issuance will inevitably kick up the price. And yet, Litecoin is not Bitcoin, so the debate will rage on. 

Either way, revisiting Litecoin’s price performance around the time of Bitcoin halving will be interesting, because by then it will have had around eight months post-halving and may present a more relevant reference point.

Bitcoin is still stuck in the $38,000 area with sideways movement during the past week. The first crypto by market cap has displayed resilience as traditional finances take a bearish turn.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Holders Trigger Largest Capitulation In Its History, Bearish Horizon For BTC?

At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $38,400 with 1.1% losses in the last 24-hours.

Tomorrow, the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) branch Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold a meeting. Market participants expect the financial institution to announce a more aggressive shift in their monetary policy.

Two months ago, the FED hinted at an increase in interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). Tomorrow the increase could be set higher at 50 basis points (bps).

This will be the first 50 bps hike in over two decades, according to trading firm QCP Capital. The firm believes that Bitcoin and the crypto market have been suffering because of several factors.

These include a dropped in equities, with the NASDAQ Index and the S&P 500 recording 13% and 9% losses in 30 days. Bitcoin has been moving in tandem with big tech stocks. Therefore, the crash was expected, but not the subsequent strength.

The latter has been underestimated by market participants. The general sentiment in the crypto market seems bearish despite Bitcoin’s capacity to hold critical support at its current levels.

In addition to the macro-outlook, QCP Capital believes there has been an increase in negative headlines which contributed to the losses. Several DeFi protocols suffered exploits over the past week, and other networks experienced outages.

However, the trading firm noted the following:

In spite of the overall bearishness, we’ve actually been seeing decent upside demand both in the front-end as well as out to September and December.

In the options market, QCP Capital records an increase in demand for calls for Bitcoin at $40,000 in May. Thus, the cryptocurrency could rally in the coming days as the FED’s announcement seems to be priced in.

Bitcoin Shows Some Bullish Signals, But Doom Is Still In The Cards

Analysts from Material Indicators seem to support the short-term bullish thesis. This could provide Bitcoin with support to get back into the $40,000 levels.

As one analyst recorded, for the first time in a while, exchanges’ order books show that big players have been stepping up and buying into BTC’s current price action. In past months, the cryptocurrency has been able to bounce, but any rally has been rejected at critical resistance.

#FireCharts CVD is showing #BTC Whales and Mega Whales have been market buying in this range and a rounding bottom pattern is forming. A relief rally may be coming. Doesn’t mean the macro bottom is in. #NFA #Crypto #tradingpsychology https://t.co/VzE3V2kA8Q pic.twitter.com/MmIyleHGer

— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) May 3, 2022

Related Reading | TA: Bitcoin Bears Keep Pushing, Why Upsides Remain Limited

Another analyst claims the U.S. dollar could present some losses as it trends downwards into “weak” support at $0.95 in the EUR/USD chart. The analyst said the following hinting at the possibility of another “dead cat” bounce and more downside price action for BTC:

Last time it hit one of these was in the first March week. BTC rallied afterwards. So, now that it hit another level, maybe BTC will give us another exit pump before doom?

After it failed to acquire regulatory approval in Singapore, World’s largest crypto exchange platform, Binance CEO, Changpeng Zhao was spotted in Dubai, attending a meeting with the authorities. The Chinese Journalist, Colin Wu tweeted today, that many exchanges including China’s largest exchange, Huobi have been approaching Dubai to set up shop. Following Wu Blockchain’s lead, it can be speculated that like Huobi, Binance is also seeking to set up its Headquarters in Dubai.

Binance held a meetup in DuBai. Due to the difficulty of applying for a work visa in Singapore, many exchanges began to transfer to DuBai, such as huobi. https://t.co/AyehNkNiix

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 11, 2021

Last month, in lieu of regulatory pressure, Binance announced the suspension of spot trading, fiat purchase channels, liquid swap, and fiat deposit functions in Singapore, effective from 26th October. Furthermore, the exchange also appealed to its Singapore users to withdraw their tokens and cease their trades by the effective date.

“As the market leader, Binance constantly evaluates its product and service offerings. We will be restricting Singapore users in respect of the Regulated Payments Services in-line with our commitment to compliance. Users in Singapore are advised to cease all related trades, withdraw fiat assets and redeem tokens by Wednesday, 2021-10-26 04:00 AM UTC (12:00 PM UTC+8) to avoid potential trading disputes.”

Binance Regulatory Crackdown and Compliance

Binance has suffered the regulators’ wrath by the Securities Commission of Singapore, which began its crackdown on the exchange by enlisting Binance.com in Investor Alert List. Furthermore, multiple regulatory authorities globally, banned or warned the exchange of its unregistered status. From Singapore, UK, Hong Kong, Japan, to Cayman Islands, South Africa, and many more, Binance lost to regulatory isolation and finally opted to compliance

Binance has now announced working towards centralizing its operations by restoring its relationship with the regulators after facing a global regulatory crackdown. Towards the end of the bearish third quarter, Binance revealed that it is conducting conversations with multiple regulators, in lieu of acquiring their approvals. Binance confirmed that it will be building a centralized headquartered financial institution, and further giving up the decentralized method of operations.

“As the largest player in the industry, we need to prepare ourselves for the shift. We are making changes to make it easier to work with regulators,”, Zhao told the South China Morning Post.