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Global investment management firm VanEck believes the first three months of 2026 could favour a risk-on environment, as investors regain something markets have lacked for years: clearer direction on key policy forces.
In a Q1 2026 outlook published on Tuesday, the firm pointed to improving visibility around US fiscal conditions, monetary policy expectations, and major investment themes.
That set-up is typically supportive for riskier corners of the market, such as AI and tech stocks, as well as crypto.
However, VanEck said Bitcoin is sending a different message, with short-term signals becoming harder to trust after a break in its usual cycle behaviour.
VanEck said markets are entering 2026 with “visibility,” framing it as a more stable phase compared to the uncertainty that dominated previous years.
The firm’s base case is that investors will face fewer shocks linked to fiscal and monetary decisions, creating a backdrop where risk assets can perform more confidently.
It added that improved clarity around policy direction is part of what makes the first quarter attractive for risk-taking.
At the same time, VanEck stressed that its views are medium-term in nature, rather than based on short-lived market events.
Despite expecting supportive conditions for risk assets, VanEck said bitcoin’s typical four-year cycle “broke in 2025,” making it difficult to rely on traditional timing signals.
The firm said this has contributed to a more cautious stance over the next three to six months.
VanEck also noted that not everyone inside the company shares the same level of caution, with some executives still taking a more constructive view on bitcoin’s immediate cycle.
The split highlights how unclear the near-term set-up has become, even as broader macro direction appears easier to read.
VanEck also flagged that bitcoin has decoupled from stock and gold markets in recent months.
The move followed a major deleveraging event in October, which changed how bitcoin has traded relative to both equities and traditional safe-haven assets.
This matters because bitcoin’s correlation with other markets has often shaped how investors position it in a broader portfolio.
If those relationships weaken, it becomes harder to treat bitcoin as a simple extension of risk sentiment, particularly when leverage conditions shift.
Crypto investor Will Clemente said the current mix of market and geopolitical conditions is closely aligned with what Bitcoin was built for.
He pointed to pressure on the Fed chair, rising metals as countries diversify reserves, record highs in stocks and risk assets, and increasing geopolitical risk.
Meanwhile, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said he expects Bitcoin to reclaim six figures before the end of January.
He noted there has been no dip below the 21-day moving average, with buyers stepping in to accumulate around these levels.
He added that a clear move above $92,000 could push BTC to $100,000 within a maximum of 10 days.
The cryptocurrency market showed renewed vigor recently, with Bitcoin pushing towards $94,000, although the rally encountered some friction Wednesday following cautious remarks from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding the timeline for a comprehensive US-China trade deal.
Despite this, strong institutional inflows and a potential divergence from traditional risk assets are fueling speculation about Bitcoin’s next major move.
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed 2.6% over the preceding 24 hours and logged a 12.2% gain over the past seven days, reaching levels near $93,600 – territory not seen since early March.
While Bitcoin led the charge, broader crypto market strength was evident.
The CoinDesk 20 index, tracking top digital assets (excluding stablecoins, memecoins, and exchange tokens), rose 4.2% over 24 hours.
Altcoins like Sui (SUI) posted impressive 24% gains, with Cardano (ADA) and Chainlink (LINK) also advancing around 7%.
Crypto-related equities, after a strong start, saw gains moderate throughout the day.
Mining firms Bitdeer (BTDR) and Core Scientific (CORZ) pared back double-digit advances to close up roughly 4%, while Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR) finished with gains of 2.1% and 1.4%, respectively.
The backdrop for this rally included seemingly conflicting signals on the trade front. Earlier in the week, President Donald Trump suggested tariffs on China would “come down substantially” post-deal.
However, Secretary Bessent tempered expectations on Wednesday, stating no unilateral offer to cut tariffs had been made and predicting a full resolution would likely take “two to three years to achieve.”
This persistent trade uncertainty, paradoxically, might be contributing to Bitcoin’s strength relative to traditional markets. Some analysts believe the market may be moving past the initial shock of tariff threats.
“Markets priced in the initial tough stances and tariff threats, which kept a lid on risk appetite over the past two months,” Paul Howard, director at crypto trading firm Wincent, told CoinDesk.
“History suggests that once the opening volleys pass, more constructive developments and easing volatility typically follow,” he added, suggesting this environment could ultimately support risk assets like crypto.
The narrative of Bitcoin acting as “digital gold” – a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty and potential currency debasement – appears to be gaining traction.
Underscoring the renewed interest, particularly from larger players, has been the significant turnaround in flows for US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs.
According to SoSoValue data, these funds have attracted nearly $1.3 billion in net inflows so far this week alone, marking their strongest daily inflow on Tuesday since mid-January.
“This [crypto] rally isn’t retail-driven hype—it’s institutional capital positioning ahead of what many see as a new monetary and political regime,” asserted Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at digital asset manager 21Shares.
“More investors are turning to it not just as a speculative asset, but as a flight to safety amid rising uncertainty across traditional markets.”
Adding another layer to the bullish case is the recent performance of traditional gold.
After a remarkable run that saw it surge 35% over four months to breach $3,500 per ounce, gold prices pulled back Wednesday, down roughly 2.5% to around $3,290.
Some analysts interpret this stalling action in gold, following its massive rally, as potentially bullish for Bitcoin.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, highlighted this dynamic.
Posting a chart on X (formerly Twitter), he noted that historically, Bitcoin’s major upward moves have often followed significant gold rallies, albeit with a lag of a few months.
“Bitcoin is showing significant strength,” Edwards stated.
“We have decoupled from risk assets and the market is now starting to front-run the fact that bitcoin is digital gold. If risk assets were to decay further from here, BTC is the ultimate QE [quantitative easing] hedge.”
Despite the strong price action and positive indicators, technical hurdles remain.
Matt Mena from 21Shares cautioned that Bitcoin faces near-term resistance around the critical $95,000 level.
He suggested a potential pullback could occur before a decisive breakout above this zone. Successfully clearing $95,000 is seen by many traders as key to unlocking further significant upside potential.
The combination of renewed institutional demand, the compelling “digital gold” narrative gaining traction as traditional gold pauses, and supportive historical patterns suggests Bitcoin may be gearing up for its next major leg higher, with the $95,000 level serving as the immediate gateway.
Crypto News Today Live Updates December and Latest News: (27 December 2022) The global digital asset market cap is marginally down over the past day. However, the traders interest in the crypto market has also dropped to a new low.
The largest cryptos like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) prices are up by 1% and 2% over the past 7 days. The cumulative market cap is down by 0.09% over the past day to stand at $813 billion.
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2022-12-27T13:45:00+5:30
Two of the most important NFT projects based on Solana announced that they will be migrating to other chains.
DeGods announced that it will be bridging to Ethereum (ETH) most probably in the first quarter of 2023.
Since the announcement DeGods’ daily volume spiked by more than 187%. As per Nansen, its average price went up from 426 Solana to 566 Solana which is a surge of 33%. Read More Here..
2022-12-27T13:00:00+5:30
The Shiba Inu community anticipates the launch of the Layer-2 blockchain solution Shibarium in January 2023. The move comes after Shiba Inu’s lead developer Shytoshi Kusama’s latest pinned tweet hinting at the Shibarium launch coming “very soon.” However, it will not come until the New Year.
ShibArmy noted that Shytoshi Kusama has also updated his profile with “We Are Not Alone” and “With a new fren…Guess Who”. Some members speculate that the development of Shibarium has been completed and is just waiting for the right time to deploy.
2022-12-27T12:20:00+5:30
Memecoins are coins developed based on internet memes and viral images. During the recent cryptocurrency boom, Dogecoin and Shiba Inu are among the top crypto to achieve meme coin status and this extends to lesser-known currencies such as Baby Doge and Dogelon Mars.
Among all the meme coins, Dogecoin is the oldest and largest of them all and its origin is an interesting story. DOGE creator used a popular meme at the time—a Shiba Inu dog with a purposely misspelled “doge” in the title.
2022-12-27T11:30:00+5:30
XRP price has registered a surge of over 3% in the last 24 hours. XRP is trading at an average price of $0.362, at the press time. Its 24 hour trading volume has skyrocketed by 140% to stand at $906.4 million. This surge has come when the biggest crypto like Bitcoin and Ethereum as struggling to keep up.
2022-12-27T11:00:00+5:30
As per the data, the total trading volume of the digital asset market fell below $20 billion on December 25. It is being recorded to be the lowest since March 3, 2019. However, as of December 27, 24 hour trading volume is down by 2% over the past day to stand at around $22 billion.
2022-12-27T10:30:00+5:30
The global digital asset market cap is marginally down over the past day. However, the traders interest in the crypto market has also dropped to a new low.
The largest cryptos like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) prices are up by 1% and 2% over the past 7 days. The cumulative market cap is down by 0.09% over the past day to stand at $813 billion.
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The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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