• Bitcoin is on track to close September with a rare positive gain of 4.5 percent.
• Historically, a green September has preceded an average Q4 rally of over 50 percent.
• If the pattern holds, Bitcoin could be eyeing the 170,000 dollar region by year-end.

In a powerful and rare defiance of its own grim history, Bitcoin is on the verge of closing the books on a positive September.

This is no small feat. The month has long been the cruelest on the crypto calendar, a consistent sea of red that has earned it the ominous nickname “Red September.”

But this year, a 4.5 percent gain has flipped the script, and in doing so, it may have just lit the fuse for an explosive rally into the final quarter of the year.

A prophecy written in the charts

History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. And in the world of Bitcoin, the rhyme of a green September is a powerful and bullish prophecy.

According to historical data, on the rare occasions that Bitcoin has managed to close September in positive territory—in 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024—the final quarter of the year has produced spectacular results, with average returns soaring to more than 53 percent.

In those instances, the fourth quarter returns have ranged from a powerful 45 percent to a stunning 66 percent.

If that historical pattern were to play out again this year, Bitcoin could be eyeing the 170,000 dollar region before the calendar flips to 2026.

The data shows that October typically acts as the launchpad for these powerful moves, with an average gain of 21.8 percent, while November continues the ascent.

This seasonal effect has been particularly profitable in the years following a Bitcoin halving, as a potent cocktail of capital inflows and bullish market positioning combine to push the asset into a fresh phase of price discovery.

The view from the blockchain: a bullish tide is turning

This bullish seasonal setup is not just a statistical anomaly; it is being actively confirmed by the deep undercurrents of the blockchain itself.

Key on-chain metrics are now flashing green, signaling a fundamental and powerful shift in market momentum.

The Spot Taker Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), a crucial indicator that tracks the difference between market buy and market sell volumes, has flipped positive on a 90-day basis for the first time since mid-July.

This is a clear and direct signal that a “Taker Buy Dominant Phase” is underway, a period where buying pressure is now decisively outweighing selling activity.

At the same time, the Coinbase premium index has been highlighting consistent and aggressive accumulation by US investors throughout the third quarter.

The powerful alignment of these two key on-chain metrics reinforces the view that a new wave of buying momentum is not just coming—it’s already here.

The stage is set, the signals are aligning, and the final quarter of the year could once again prove to be a decisive and explosive one for the world’s leading digital asset.

XRP holders just got reminded that they may miss out on a major token giveaway if they do not act promptly. A reminder from the crypto community has made it clear that only a short time remains before the current claim window closes. If eligible holders fail to take part, they risk losing millions of dollars in value from the free distribution. The project team has stated that the claim process is open, but it will not remain so indefinitely. After the first phase concludes, fewer opportunities will be available, leaving many with limited or no options.

Rick McCracken Warns XRP Holders Of Imminent Deadline

Cardano community member Rick McCracken is now urging XRP and Cardano holders to pay attention. He reminded users that only 10 days remain to claim their free Midnight (NIGHT) tokens. The first phase of the airdrop, known as the Glacier Drop, will officially close on October 4 at 12:00 p.m. UTC, after which any holder who has not claimed their share will no longer be able to receive it in this phase.

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This reminder has raised an alarm because many XRP holders are yet to act. The risk is clear: failing to claim means missing out on tokens that could be worth millions in the future. Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has also given updates on the claim process. He explained that tens of thousands of addresses have already taken their share of NIGHT tokens. 

Millions At Stake As Midnight Airdrop Enters Final Phase

The claim portal for NIGHT tokens opened on August 5, allowing 33.6 million addresses across eight major blockchains to participate. The supported networks include Cardano, XRP, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche, Basic Attention Token, and BNB. From the very beginning, the distribution was to allocate half of the supply to Cardano users, 20% to Bitcoin holders, and the remaining 30% to other chains.

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So far, more than 70,000 users have claimed over 1.6 billion NIGHT tokens. XRP holders, however, account for only 5.72% of the claims so far, indicating that many have yet to take action. It leaves a considerable amount of unclaimed value still on the table. With only days left in the Glacier Drop, the clock is ticking for XRP holders to protect their stake.

After the Glacier Drop ends, the Scavenger Mine will begin. In this next phase, users can collect unclaimed NIGHT by completing basic computer tasks.

Later, the Lost and Found phase will open for those who missed the first round. However, any tokens remaining after these steps will be allocated to the project’s treasury and will be permanently lost. That is why XRP holders face the real risk of losing millions in value if they fail to act before October 4.

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com