In a new interview, Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments shared his Bitcoin theses for 2023. Looking back at the past few months, the renowned expert said those have put the market in a position where Bitcoin offers “a great position for long-term investors.”

As Edwards noted, almost every sentiment metric imaginable fell into the “biggest or second-biggest bearish” range in macro, equities, and crypto. “Pretty much anyone would have said on Twitter last year that we are in a recession or it’s coming to a recession,” the analyst continued.

While Edwards acknowledged that the risk of a recession is far from gone, many key metrics have come back quite a bit. Among them is the housing market, which is slowing and often leads the overall economy.

“So there are a number of metrics which suggest things are slowing down a bit. You got all the big tech names laying off employees and you see this in crypto as well. 10% to 20% cuts have not been unusual in the last months,” the founder of Capriole Investments asserted.

Furthermore, he pointed out an interesting fact: every time inflation peaked above 5% and then fell by more than 20%, the U.S. central bank pivoted. This observation holds true for the last 60 years. “So I think there is a high probability the Fed stops raising rates or reducing rates,” Edwards concluded and further said:

And then we have this deep value situation in crypto which has been playing out the last 3 or 4 months. […] And all that sets up a great opportunity for long-term investors in crypto and equities, as well, risk assets in general.

Fed Pivot Will Propel Bitcoin Upwards Within 6 Months

In general, it is difficult to predict when there will be a regime change at the Fed. However, Edwards believes it will happen within the next 3-6 months. After the forced liquidations in the Bitcoin market over the past 12 months, there is currently no longer any significant selling pressure.

Therefore, according to the Capriole Investments founder, there will be a liquidity crisis on the sell side once larger amounts of Bitcoin buyers return to the market, leading to a squeeze to the upside. “And we saw that kind of short-squeeze play out in the first weeks of January.”

As for the Fed pivot, investors should keep an eye on specific data. While the consensus now seems to be that the Fed will change monetary policy, there are still some risks. Edwards pointed to history in this regard, warning that inflation could rise again.

In the 1970s inflation went through a roller coaster ride and that could be the case for the next 5 to 10 years as well. But I do think the base case for me is at least a rate pause this year, at some point in the coming months.

Moreover, investors should be cautious when employment remains very high. This is “probably the single most important factor leading to recessions.” While this data point is still incredibly strong currently, it could change “any month now” given the layoffs in the big tech sector, according to Edwards.

Equities are also worth considering, he said. If they hit new highs, or if earnings are very strong, if manufacturing picks up and inflation is still at 5% to 6%, then the Fed might think it can keep going because everything is still fine. However, Edwards’s base case looks different:

I think 2023 will generally be a positive year because the Bitcoin price will probably be higher at the end of the year […], but there will be a lot of volatility.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $23.115.

Featured image from iStock, Chart from TradingView.com

Twitter user @ShiLLin_ViLLian posted details of a Cardano NFT that sold for 180,000 ADA, or $64,300 at today’s price.

This Cardano NFT sold for 180,000 ADA pic.twitter.com/9u449BL2sV

— Alex (@ShiLLin_ViLLian) October 18, 2022

The “Ford Edwards” belongs to The Ape Society Collection, recently launched by anonymous developers Cardman, Congo, and Matasa.

The holder’s husband posted a video of the sale going through, including his reaction when a bug prevented confirmation of the sale. After discovering the issue, a representative from jpg. store said engineers will “squash the bug.”

So this was me selling my wife’s NFT, King Ford Edwards ⁦for 180,000 $ADA

⁦@the_ape_society⁩ is the Top #NFT project on #Cardano

Watch til the end to see my reaction when I thought I accepted the wrong offer, I was so nervous

⁦@kpetric2017⁩ pic.twitter.com/Y2Y2eqUTeK

— [email protected] (@PetricVince) October 19, 2022

The Ape Society

Inspired by Ethereum’s Bored Ape Yacht Club, The Ape Society also intends to develop a community via holder access to “unique benefits, events, and more,” including rights in the community-run Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO).

“The Ape Society is a collection of 7,000 unique NFTs generated on the Cardano blockchain. Claim an ape by minting or purchasing through a secondary marketplace, and stake your place in our exclusive community.”

Each Ape Society NFT is derived from a “design generated” set of traits. The 13 trait categories include Hat, Ears, Weapon, and Class.

The Class trait is integral to the collection’s background story, which details a fictional tale set “long ago” in a world of “unrefined, barbaric apes.” In this chaotic world, an ape who called himself Giambuono de’ Medici wanted unity and cooperation between apes.

“He split his following into 7 classes — nobles, royal advisors, military officers, merchants, explorers, artists, and craftsmen — each of which was necessary for the society to survive and prosper.”

The Ape Society is available to buy on Cardano’s secondary NFT marketplace jpg.store. Per the site landing page, the collection price floor is currently 8,250 ADA ($2,600).

Is Cardano the next NFT gold rush?

NFT collector @FFVV1211 recently commented that he missed out on the Solana NFT pump. He added that Cardano NFTs are now pumping, and he won’t repeat that mistake.

They told me to stay away from SOL NFTs when SOL NFTs and the community were pumping, I listened and missed out on some great plays

Same thing is now happening with Cardano NFTs.. not making that mistake again

— FFV (@FFVV1211) October 18, 2022

Similarly, @HommiesDrey spoke of an NFT paradigm shift that moves along different blockchains over time. He believes Cardano is set to benefit from a shift from Solana.

The reason why u r losing money in NFTs is because u r Chain biased.

U don’t follow d paradigm shifts. ETH has already minted out all its top project, Sol is facing decline only rug pulls r coming in Cardano is d current hot cake of NFTs, d next will b Polygon. pic.twitter.com/D8dFzaMHsv

— #NFT Guru (@HommiesDrey) October 19, 2022

Data from opencnft.io showed no discernable pattern with Cardano NFT volume. The market peak of 3.7 million ADA was achieved on June 7, leading to a sharp decline that bottomed at 366k ADA on September 13.

Since then, the volume has trended upward, but a noticeable spike occurred on October 17, possibly signaling the start of the Cardano NFT paradigm shift @HommiesDrey referred to.