Stock and crypto market participants globally are closely watching the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, a preferred metric for the Fed’s interest rate decisions. With the US dollar index rising towards 98 on Friday, the upcoming release is critical as all assets including stocks, gold, Bitcoin are getting hammered amid rising market uncertainty.
The post US PCE Inflation Estimates by JPMorgan, BofA, & Other Wall Street Banks appeared first on CoinGape.
]]>The US PCE inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is set for release today. Wall Street estimates the September PCE and Core PCE prints similar to the prior month, with a slight rise in headline PCE to 2.8%. This marks the last piece of data the FED sees before making its rate decision
The post US PCE Inflation: Wall Street Estimates, Expert Insights, What Crypto Market Can Expect? appeared first on CoinGape.
]]>Metaplanet, Japan’s largest Bitcoin holder, reported a 42% jump for its Bitcoin Income Generation business during the second quarter. The company’s aggressive BTC acquisition strategy has helped it surpass the Q2 revenue estimates by the S&P 500. With 13,350 BTC in its treasury, the company is already the fifth-largest public firm holding Bitcoins. Metaplanet Bitcoin
The post Metaplanet Beats S&P 500 Q2 Revenue Estimates as Bitcoin Income Soars 42% appeared first on CoinGape.
]]>The much-awaited US PPI data today showed that inflation has advanced 3.5% in January, marking its highest increase since February 2023. This gloomy data, after the recent hotter-than-anticipated US CPI inflation figures, has further added pressure on the crypto market traders. However, with an unexpected twist, Bitcoin price has surged crossing the brief $96K mark.
Bitcoin Rises After US PPI Release
The latest US PPI Inflation data by the Labor Department has fueled concerns over a potential Bitcoin price crash ahead. However, it appears that the investors have shrugged off the inflationary concerns, as evidenced by the recent surge in BTC.
Meanwhile, the latest data showed that the US PPI advanced 3.5% on a year-over-year basis (YoY) in January, up from 3.3% in the prior month. The inflation on a monthly basis came in at 0.4%, up from the prior month’s figure of 0.2%. Notably, the latest data exceeds Wall Street expectations.
Simultaneously, the Core PPI, which excludes the food and energy prices, came in at 3.4% as compared to December’s figure of 3.3%. On the other hand, the Core PPI on a MoM basis rises to 0.3% from 0.1% recorded in the previous month. The market was expecting the Core PPI to come in at 3.3% and 0.2%, respectively.
Bitcoin Price Soars 2% Reflecting Bullish Market Sentiment
Bitcoin price today recorded a surge of over 2% despite the gloomy data and soared past the brief $96K mark after the US PPI release. This latest advancement in the crypto’s price indicates that the investors have shrugged off the inflationary concerns while focusing on the long-term potential of the coin. Besides, it also indicates that BTC has emerged as a safer haven amid inflationary and global macroeconomic concerns.
Meanwhile, BTC price reacted immediately and slipped after the US CPI exceeded Wall Street expectations yesterday. Notably, these hotter-than-expected figures are likely to give more space to the Federal Reserve to move with their hawkish rate cut plans.
Notably, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reiterated his stance on interest rate cuts, saying that the central bank would consider the economic condition before coming to a decision. Having said that, these recent sets of data have cemented bets over no Fed rate cut before the first half of the year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the US central bank is going to maintain the policy rates at their upcoming gathering in March.
Crypto Market Rallies Amid Cautious Stance
The broader digital assets space also rallied today, with the global crypto market cap rising 2.1% to $3.18 trillion. Top altcoins like Ethereum, XRP, Cardano, and others, also followed Bitcoin price movements, witnessing gains of over 2% following the US PPI release.
However, despite the immediate bullish response, market watchers are keeping close track of the flagship crypto’s performance. Recently, top analysts highlighted key support levels for BTC price, which the crypto should break to continue its upward run. Besides, an expert also predicted that a close below the $92K level could trigger a massive selloff in the market, potentially dragging down the Bitcoin price to the $70,000 level.
Meanwhile, the US 10-year Bond Yield also slipped 1.2% to 4.577 while the US Dollar Index fell 0.12% to $107.690.
Rupam Roy
Rupam is a seasoned professional with three years of experience in the financial market, where he has developed a reputation as a meticulous research analyst and insightful journalist. He thrives on exploring the dynamic nuances of the financial landscape. Currently serving as a sub-editor at Coingape, Rupam’s expertise extends beyond conventional boundaries. His role involves breaking stories, analyzing AI-related developments, providing real-time updates on the crypto market, and presenting insightful economic news.
Rupam’s career is characterized by a deep passion for unraveling the complexities of finance and delivering impactful stories that resonate with a diverse audience.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
DTX Exchange (DTX) Surpasses Estimates By Raising $670K in Days, Cardano (ADA) and Polygon (MATIC) Investors … Crypto Reporter
Source link ]]>
Crypto traders await cues from the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core CPI data to determine whether it’s time for Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high or concerns still prevail. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release CPI inflation data for May hours before the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday, June 12. The data is crucial after a higher-than-expected US jobs data last week that scaled back bets on Fed rate cuts.
Wall Street giants including JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, UBS, Nomura, RBC, and Barclays estimate CPI to come in line at 3.4%. Meanwhile, BNP Paribas, TD Bank, and Wells Fargo forecast CPI inflation cooling to 3.3%.
As per economists, the annual CPI inflation to come in line at 3.4%, similar to last month. The monthly rate seen slowing to 0.1% from 0.3% last month. Also, the annual Core CPI is expected to fall to 3.5% from 3.6% last month and month-on-month core inflation to hold steady at 0.3%, after a major drop last month.
Both inflation data estimates by Wall Street and economists signal an overall positive numbers and sentiment for an uptick in the market. US stock futures steadied today as investors braced for double macro event of CPI and FOMC. Meanwhile, China announced its inflation rate falling below estimates.
Bitcoin Traders Eyes Fed Rate Cuts in September
Banks have predicted Fed rate cuts starting in September. A cooling CPI inflation and PCE inflation to confirm September as an official pivot by the Fed. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains bullish on the state of the US economy, still expecting three rate cuts, despite two indicated by Fed swaps.
The US dollar index (DXY) dropped ahead of CPI and Fed rate decision. It’s moving around 105.22, likely to drop below 105 after the key macro events. CPI in line with market estimates could raise bets for a rate cut in September, potentially lifting Bitcoin price.
Moreover, US 10-Year Treasury yields (US10Y) pared gains this week amid positive sentiment for market recovery, fading concerns raised after last week’s jobs data. Bitcoin price moves in the opposite direction to the US treasury yields and traders eyeing a further drop with slowing monetary policy tightening.
Also Read: Why The World’s Largest Bank Called Ethereum (ETH) Digital Oil
Bitcoin Price Rebound Post CPI To Bring Crypto Market Recovery
Bitcoin tends to dump into FOMC and CPI as the crypto market overreacts, which should reverse after these events. BTC price is creating a healthy market structure on the bigger timeframe and a buy-the-dip opportunity, said analysts. It has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern in the lower timeframe, which could bring a recovery in the broader crypto market as BTC rises.
Open interests are increasing once again to hit all-time highs, but met a rough patch due to macro events. Total BTC futures open interest is at $35.47 billion, with fresh hints of buying from the bottom, as per Coinglass data.
Options market data indicate a rebound above $67,500 today and to surpass $69,000 on expiry day on Friday. Options traders have bet Bitcoin to hit highs of $75K and even $80K by the end of June. Traders are bullish after this heavy macro week, as per Deribit.
Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a $200 million outflow amid macro concerns. Fidelity, Bitwise, ARK 21Shares, VanEck, and GBTC Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows on Tuesday.
BTC price is trading at $67,265, down 0.57% in the last 24 hours. The support level is at $66K, a drop below this will negate the bullish scenario in the short term. Furthermore, the trading volume has increased slightly in the last 24 hours, indicating a rise in interest among traders.
Also Read:
The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Shiba Inu Team Estimates When SHIB Could Hit $0.01 Watcher Guru
Source link ]]>
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is the most influential data for the U.S. Federal Reserve to likely settle the debate around the timing of Fed rate cuts. However, Wallet Street banks estimate a rise in inflation before it starts to cool again. The latest data indicated the resilience of the United States economy and the Fed could still hold rate cuts for longer.
Bitcoin witnessing headwinds such as the high US dollar, 10-year Treasury yields, and regulatory tightening, with halving jitter and inflation concerns at the top. Experts believe higher inflation could turn the tables for Bitcoin rally to $100k.
Wall Street Banks Anticipate Hotter Inflation
JPMorgan, Citi, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, HSBC, UBS, BMO, and Citadel estimate the inflation to remain elevated for the coming months. Most banks anticipate CPI inflation to come in hotter at 3.4%.
While Bank of America estimates headline CPI inflation at 3.3%, Wells Fargo and Scotiabank anticipate even higher CPI inflation at 3.5%. The annual CPI inflation for February came in hotter at 3.2%. Also, the PPI and PCE inflation data were high in recent release.
Prediction market Kalshi’s forecasts are for 3.4%, while traders believe inflation will end up higher. US inflation has a 43% chance of falling to 2-2.9% this year, as per Kalshi.
What’s your prediction? Check out our inflation markets and make a trade.https://t.co/sOkoJtSDlQ pic.twitter.com/8XZaFsVu4t
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) April 9, 2024
Rate Cuts Starting in September
CoinGape reported that Fed swaps indicate rate cuts in June and July are off the table and the U.S. Federal Reserve can start rate cuts in September.
On the other hand, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 51% probability of 25 bps rate cuts in June and 49% in July by the Federal Reserve. September data indicates a 40% chance of further 25 bps cuts in interest rates.
JPMorgan chief executive officer (CEO) Jamie Dimon in a dire warning earlier this week, said interest rate as high as 8% is still on the table amid persistent inflationary pressures driven by fiscal deficits and military conflict among other factors
The US dollar index (DXY) has dropped near 104 today from a high of 105 in early April. Federal Reserve officials, including Neel Kashkari and Jerome Powell emphasized the need for more inflation data before considering any rate cuts, with the Fed officials slowly turning cautious.
Moreover, the US 10-year Treasury yield also decreased to 4.35% from its highest level since November. Bitcoin moves in the opposite direction to DXY and the 10-year treasury yield. Fed can remain patient if CPI inflation comes in higher than 3.2%.
Bitcoin to Fall Below $60,000 After CPI?
While analysts remain bearish on Bitcoin due to halving related volatility, Markus Thielen predicted BTC price to fall back to $62,000 and ETH price to $3,100 amid a lack of trading volumes. Traders must keep an eye on major levels for Bitcoin at $68,330 and Ethereum at $3,460.
Experts including Benjamin Cowen and Peter Brandt have also predicted a Bitcoin price correction to below $60,000 if BTC repeats a historical pattern seen during spot Bitcoin ETF and past halving events.
Moreover, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes expressed concerns over constrained US dollar liquidity, contributing to heightened selling pressure on crypto assets.
BTC price fell 3% in the past 24 hours, with BTC open interest falling more than 3% in the past 24 hours. CME BTC Futures Open Interest down 4% over the last 24 hours.
Also Read:
The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Crypto traders got clear cues from the latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data, allowing Bitcoin (BTC) price to gain above $63,000. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge PCE. The data is crucial because of the recent hotter-than-expected CPI that pulled Fed rate cuts off the table.
Wall Street giants including JPMorgan, Bank of America, UBS, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Nomura, RBC, Barclays, Goldman Sachs, TD Securities, and Wells Fargo remained split on PCE after the CPI scare, but most anticipated inflation to cool further.
The annual PCE inflation is further cool to 2.4% from last month’s 2.6%, with the monthly rate seen rising 0.3%. Also, the Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge to measure inflation, rise 0.4% month-on-month while the annual rate cool to 2.8%, from last month’s 2.9%. Both inflation data comes in line with market estimates
Also Read: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Faces Rejection At $64,000 As US Govt. Moves $1 Billion in BTC
Fed Rate Cuts in September or June?
Fed Chair Jerome Powell called for three rate cuts in 2024 while Fed officials remain cautious after CPI, experts predicted rate cuts are starting in September. The market currently has a 65% chance of Fed rate cuts in June, with March and May off the table. Moreover, the CME FedWatch shows a 54% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in June.
The US dollar index (DXY) moves around 103.8 on Thursday after facing heightened volatility in the previous session. A stronger-than-expected PCE could reduce bets for a rate cut in the first half even further, potentially lifting the dollar and impacting Bitcoin price.
Moreover, US 10-Year Treasury yields (US10Y) pares gains after PCE, as per CNBC. Bitcoin price moves in the opposite direction to US treasury yield.
Also Read: MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Bet Unlocks Massive Shareholder Value, MSTR at $1000
Bitcoin Price to Face Resistance or ATH Next?
Popular analyst Michael van de Poppe recommends going for longs between $46K-$53K if a correction happens. Matrixport warns investors of a potential 15% market correction following Bitcoin’s recent surge past $60,000, despite no major resistance before ATH level of $68.7K.
Spot Bitcoin ETF and FOMO are driving the rally, with Bitcoin ETFs recording the largest inflow of $673 million on Wednesday.
BTC price skyrocketed over $63,000, less than 9% away from the $68.7K. The 24-hour low and high are $57,093 and $63,913, respectively. Furthermore, the trading volume has increased by 150% in the last 24 hours, indicating a rise in interest among traders.
Futures and options open interests (OI) rose to record levels, with total options OI rising over 8% to $33.79 billion, as per Coinglass data. FOMO continues to push Bitcoin price to $100K prediction by multiple experts despite sky-high funding rates.
Also Read: Ripple Alum Spearheads Support Drive For XRP Attorney John Deaton’s Senate Run
The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Crypto and stock market investors keenly await the consumer price index (CPI) inflation data for January by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for further cues on Fed rate cuts. Bitcoin price trades above $50,000 after a massive buying in spot Bitcoin ETFs, triggering a substantial crypto market rally.
CPI and Core CPI Expectations by Wall Street Giants
Wall Street giants expect a major fall in both CPI and core CPI inflation, especially after the recent CPI revision. While Fed officials are cautious on rate cuts in March, the upcoming economic data will guide better on the monetary policy outlook.
JPMorgan, Bank of America, UBS, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Nomura, and RBC estimate headline CPI inflation cooling to 2.9% from 3.4%. However, Barclays, Goldman Sachs, TD Securities, and Wells Fargo anticipate a decline to 3%.
Whereas for core CPI, experts from banks including Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and UBS estimate a drop to 3.7% from 3.9%. Moreover, Bank of America, Barclays, TD Securities and Nomura anticipate 3.8%, and Goldman Sachs expects a higher annual core rate of 3.9%.
Thus, the market estimated annual inflation rate cooling to 2.9% in January, which would be the lowest reading since March 2021. Also, annual core inflation is expected to slow to 3.7%, the lowest reading since April 2021. The estimates for monthly rates for both CPI and core CPI remain steady at 0.2% and 0.3%.
Bitcoin Price to $55,000?
The cooling CPI inflation will give the U.S. Federal Reserve proof to consider rate cuts in the months ahead. The CME FedWatch Tool shows an almost 50% probability of 25 bps rate cuts in May, with a high probability in June.
Macro data shows volatility these days, making it crucial for traders to keep a watch. The US dollar index (DXY) is falling from 104.25 to 104. A drop below 104 is what crypto traders expect for further upside move in BTC price to $55,000.
Moreover, the 10-year treasury yield (US10Y) is falling but remains above 4%. The recent treasury bills’ auctions and Fed officials’ cautious outlook on rate cuts.
The derivatives market looks strong as futures and options traders made fresh bets to further upside in BTC price. Bitcoin futures open interest rises over 7% to $47.32 billion, with futures volume rising 70% in the last 24 hours.
Total options open interest jump 4% to $24.29 billion after a massive 7.20% rise in CME BTC Futures open interest and massive inflow in spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Options traders making higher bets for $56K, $60K, and even $70K for February. It indicates BTC price likely staying above $50,000 after the CPI release.
BTC price jumped 4% in the past 24 hours, with the price currently trading at $50,100. The 24-hour low and high are $47,745 and $50,358, respectively. Furthermore, the trading volume shoots to almost 100% in the last 24 hours, indicating a rise in interest among traders.
Also Read:
The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
✓ Share: