According to a well-known crypto analyst, Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-standing four-year cycle can no longer dictate the direction of the crypto market. For months, both Bitcoin and major altcoins have struggled to regain their previous highs, while traditional markets have flourished. This difference in performance has sparked discussions about whether the old cycle rule still applies and what could come next for the broader market.

Analyst Declares Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Dead 

A popular crypto analyst with over 227,000 followers on X, @theunipcs, has announced that the Bitcoin four-year cycle is dead. He stated that this market cycle is now unable to determine the behavior of BTC and many major altcoins. 

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Traditionally, crypto’s four-year cycles have relied on the Bitcoin halving to reduce supply and trigger price surges. However, based on Unipcs’ analysis, these mechanisms no longer govern the market, especially as factors such as monetary policy, Spot ETFs, liquidity flows, macroeconomic factors, and dramatic liquidation events have significantly altered it. 

Unipcs emphasized that the market has been in a long phase of consolidation and accumulation, showing little of the explosive activity historically expected after halving events. He pointed out that the price of Bitcoin and leading altcoins have remained depressed for months, trading roughly 30% or more below their all-time highs. 

This decline stands in stark contrast to other major asset classes, which continue to climb. The analyst noted that Silver has been hitting record levels almost daily, while Gold continues to climb to new peaks. Additionally, major US stock indexes, such as the S&P 500, are hitting fresh highs, while crypto remains stagnant and underperforming. 

Notably, this extended period of weakness is highlighted by Bitcoin’s crash below $85,000 earlier this month after peaking above $126,000 during the first week of October. Many altcoins, including Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and others, have followed a similar trajectory, surging explosively before plunging to new lows. 

Technical indicators, such as the Fear & Greed Index, indicate that investor sentiment remains deeply negative, while analyst insights point to a bearish market structure. Overall, Unipcs’ analysis signals the possible end of the historically repetitive 4-year cycle, though he suggests it could mark the beginning of a new bullish phase for crypto. 

What’s Next For BTC And The Crypto Market? 

Despite the prolonged slump, Unipcs believes that the ongoing accumulation trend could end soon, triggering an aggressive rally in the crypto market. He believes that once this happens, Bitcoin and major altcoins could surge explosively to new all-time highs once the dormant market transitions into a new bullish phase. 

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While the timing of his optimistic outlook remains uncertain, the analyst is confident in the market’s potential for a decisive breakout and recovery. Unipcs has stated that the crypto market will eventually catch up and potentially outperform all asset classes soon. 

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

A famous trader is betting on a significant XRP price crash amid this recent market downtrend. The altcoin continues to struggle despite the recent launch of Canary’s XRP ETF, with popular analyst Ali Martinez suggesting it could soon drop below the psychological $2 level. 

Famous Trader Opens $27 Million Short Position On XRP

In an X post, the on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain revealed that a famous trader is shorting the market again, opening a 20x short on XRP worth $27.4 million. The trader has also opened short positions of 40x and 10x on Bitcoin and ZEC, respectively, worth $148.5 million and $20.4 million. 

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This comes as the XRP price continues to struggle, putting it at risk of a further decline, especially with concerns that Bitcoin may already be in a bear market. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez also predicted that XRP could drop to as low as $1.73 if it loses the $2.15 support level. 

Meanwhile, XRP continues to face significant selling pressure despite increased institutional adoption through the launch of Canary’s XRP fund, with more XRP ETFs also set to launch. Santiment data shows that whales holding between 1 million and 10 million coins recently sold almost 200 million coins in the space of 48 hours. 

This may just be the start of a larger sell-off following Glassnode’s recent revelation. The on-chain analytics platform revealed that the share of XRP supply in profit has fallen to 58.5%, which is the lowest since November 2024, when the price was trading at around $0.53. Glassnode further noted that despite XRP trading 4x higher now, 41.5% of its supply (around 26.5 billion) sits in loss, which it claimed is a “sign of a top-heavy and structurally fragile market”.

Macro Structure Points To A Decline To $2.03

Crypto analyst CasiTrades stated that XRP is still likely making its way down to the macro .5 fib support at $2.03. She claimed that the move is playing out perfectly as Wave 2s are corrective and that the choppiness is exactly how the market should behave. The analyst further revealed that the only invalidation of the drop to the $2.03 support is a decisive break above the macro .382 level at $2.41. 

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CasiTrades explained that this $2.41 level remains the line in the sand and that, as long as XRP stays below it, the structure points to a final sweep of $2.03. She also raised the possibility of a drop to the “still-valid” macro target at $1.65, which is the .618 fib level. The analyst noted that Wave 2 corrections commonly reach the .618 and that the longer XRP ranges without breaking resistance, the more probable a drop to that level becomes. 

CasiTrades stated that a move to $1.65 would not be bearish, as it would build the kind of momentum needed for a powerful macro Wave 3 to new all-time highs (ATHs). She has predicted that XRP could rally to a new ATH of as high as $10. 

At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $2.15, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com