Ethereum is trading above the $3,200 level as bulls attempt to push the price back toward higher resistance zones, but market sentiment remains fragile. Fear and uncertainty continue to dominate as several analysts warn that the broader trend may still point toward a potential bear market. Yet, beneath the volatile price action, key on-chain data is revealing a development that could shape Ethereum’s next major phase.

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According to a new report from CryptoQuant, a historic signal tied to the realized price of whales holding more than 100,000 ETH has emerged once again. This metric, which tracks the average cost basis of the largest holders, has only been tested a handful of times over the past five years.

Each instance occurred during decisive turning points in Ethereum’s macro trend. Whenever ETH approached or traded near this realized price, it signaled either the exhaustion of a deep downtrend or the beginning of a strong recovery phase.

Today, Ethereum is once again hovering near this critical threshold. With analysts divided and sentiment weakening, the whale realized price has become one of the most important indicators to monitor. Whether ETH bounces or breaks here may determine the direction of the next major trend cycle.

Whale Realized Price as a Cycle-Defining Threshold

The CryptoQuant report highlights the significance of Ethereum’s proximity to the realized price of whales holding at least 100,000 ETH. According to the analysis, ETH has traded very close to this level only four times in the last five years.

Two of those instances occurred during the capitulation phase of the 2022 bear market, when selling pressure peaked, and long-term confidence was severely tested. The other two have happened this year, underscoring how unusual and cycle-defining the current environment has become.

What makes this metric particularly important is its historical reliability. In the past five years, Ethereum has never traded below the realized price of these mega-whales. This level has consistently acted as a structural floor, signaling areas where the largest and most sophisticated holders refuse to sell at a loss. Their behavior often marks moments of deep undervaluation or macro exhaustion within the market.

Today, that realized price sits near the $2,500 range, placing Ethereum within striking distance of a level that has repeatedly separated long-term accumulation zones from full-scale trend reversals. If ETH holds above this threshold, it would reinforce the idea that large holders still see long-term value—despite fear dominating broader market sentiment.

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With the Bitcoin halving event now completed, analysts and market experts turn their attention to a much-anticipated bull run based on historical trends in the BTC market. In particular, a crypto analyst with the X handle ecoinometrics has tipped the maiden cryptocurrency to at least achieve a six-figure in the current bull cycle.

How High Can Bitcoin Rise Post Halving? 

In an X post on Saturday, econometrics shared a strong bullish prediction of Bitcoin price following the fourth halving event on April 19. The crypto analyst stated that if  BTC produced a similar growth pattern seen in previous bull cycles, its market price would likely range between $140,000 – $4,500,000. 

For context, the bull run, which forms the latter part of the Bitcoin bull cycle, occurs in the months following the halving event, according to BTC’s price history. During this period, the market leader is known to record massive price gains, as seen after previous halvings in 2012 (7,592.30%), 2016 (1,818.8%), and 2020.

Price range for Bitcoin in the 4th halving cycle:

upper bound ~ $4,500,000
lower bound ~ $140,000

That is *if* Bitcoin ends up following a growth trajectory in the range of the previous cycles. pic.twitter.com/s93yldJEI0

— ecoinometrics (@ecoinometrics) April 20, 2024

Econometrics stated that a repeat of such positive performance could see Bitcoin trade as high as $ 4,500,000 per unit. However, other speculators have attacked this prediction, believing BTC will likely soon experience some level of diminishing returns. Thus, such a high price level seems unfeasible.

In response, econometrics stated that Bitcoin currently operates similarly to “megacap tech stocks”, which have shown notable defiance to this economic theory. However, the analyst acknowledged that $4,500,000 may be an unrealistic price target for BTC, but there is much confidence that the digital asset will achieve a mid-six-figure value.

Bitcoin Price Overview

Bitcoin is currently trading at $65,043, with a modest 2.21% gain over the last 24 hours. However, its daily trading volume has declined massively, falling by 52.88% to a substantial $21.62 billion, underscoring decreased market activity and investor interest. 

Over the past week, Bitcoin has also shown fair improvement resulting in a total gain of 1.86%. However, despite these recent gains, the monthly chart reflects a decline of 4.16%, following some significant price dips and massive liquidations in the past week. 

On a larger scale, Bitcoin remains quite impressive, with its year-to-date growth percentage of 131.69%. With a market cap value of  $1.28 trillion, the premier cryptocurrency remains the largest digital asset in the world.

BTC trading at $65,270.47 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on Tradingiew.com

Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

The long-awaited fourth Bitcoin halving finally occurred after BTC posted its 840,000th block. This event is significant as it is expected to have several implications for the Bitcoin ecosystem and the crypto market going forward. 

What To Expect Following The Bitcoin Halving

The Bitcoin halving slashed miners’ rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC for each block mined. This means that Bitcoin miners are set to earn a reduced income of 450 BTC instead of the 900 BTC they earned before the fourth halving. This development is expected to have a dire effect on their operations, as NewsBTC reported that they could lose a whopping $10 billion following the halving.  

While the effects of the halving are not so pleasant for BTC miners, the halving is deemed necessary for the growth of the Bitcoin ecosystem. It makes Bitcoin (BTC) deflationary by reducing the rate at which more tokens come into circulation. This could make the flagship crypto more scarce and ultimately drive up its value, as it has done in the past three halvings. 

In anticipation of history repeating itself, crypto analysts and experts have made several predictions about how high Bitcoin could rise this time post-halving. So far, the most bullish price prediction remains by Samson Mow, the CEO of Jan3 and Bitcoiner, who predicts that the flagship crypto could rise to $1 million this year. 

He added that this unprecedented price surge was possible considering that BTC’s demand is expected to continue outpacing the supply, with more institutional investors recently getting on board through the Spot Bitcoin ETFs. The imbalance between Bitcoin’s supply and demand is also why crypto analyst MacronautBTC believes Bitcoin could rise to $237,000. 

Billionaire Tim Draper also agrees that Bitcoin could attain such heights based on his prediction that the flagship crypto will hit $250,000 in 2025. 

Implications On The Broader Crypto Market

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe recently predicted a narrative shift post-halving. He expects Bitcoin to take months to consolidate while altcoins significantly move to the upside during this period. This is plausible, considering Bitcoin doesn’t experience that parabolic price surge until about six months after the halving. 

During this period, altcoins like XRP and Cardano (ADA), which have underperformed up until now, will be closely monitored as investors wait to see if they will show any sign of bullish momentum in them. Ethereum (ETH) will also be the focus of many in the crypto community as they watch how the second-largest crypto token by market cap will perform while Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates. 

Interestingly, Van de Poppe expects the narrative to shift to Ethereum and projects in the Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) and Real World Assets (RWA) sector. Therefore, such projects are also worth keeping an eye on. 

BTC bulls hold price above $63,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Cointribune, chart from Tradingview.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.