According to reports, Fundstrat analysts are sending mixed signals about Bitcoin’s path in 2026. One line of work inside the firm sees a noticeable pullback early next year, while another predicts new highs arriving soon after.
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Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, is reported to have told clients that a “base case” would see Bitcoin move down toward the $60,000–$65,000 range in the first half of 2026.
The same internal material attributes fallbacks for other major tokens — ETH toward about $1.8K–$2K and SOL near $50–$75 — which were framed as potential buying opportunities should markets correct.
Risk Models And Shorter Time Horizons
Farrell’s note, which has circulated as screenshots on social media and among clients, stresses risk management and the possibility of a meaningful drawdown before any sustained rally.
Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, Sean Farrell, says $BTC to $60k as base case, 1H 2026.
Fundstrat’s head, Tom Lee, says $BTC to ATH’s, even up to $200k, by end of Jan 2026.
Is this normal for funds to contradict each other within?
Honest question. pic.twitter.com/KETNygLEtu
— Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) December 20, 2025
The language in those client slides points to cautious positioning and to taking advantage of lower price levels if they arrive.
Tom Lee’s Bullish Outlook Remains Publicly Strong
By contrast, Tom Lee — Fundstrat’s co-founder and a longstanding voice on Bitcoin — has publicly said he expects new all-time highs in early 2026, with some media summaries quoting optimistic ranges as high as $200,000 by late January 2026.
Well stated @ConvexDispatch
https://t.co/8kWrgcl6ml
— Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FSInsight.com (@fundstrat) December 20, 2025
He has emphasized macro drivers, institutional flows, and cycle dynamics as reasons for continued upside in the coming months.
Different Roles, Different Time Frames
Reports have disclosed that the two views reflect different analytical roles inside the firm: one focused on portfolio-level downside planning and the other on longer-term macro scenarios.
Several clients and observers on X (formerly Twitter) have pushed back on the idea that these are contradictory; instead, they say the notes reflect distinct mandates and time frames.
Market Reaction and What Investors Are Hearing Now
Markets reacted to the story with a mix of skepticism and quick profit-taking. Some traders flagged how fast sentiment can change when internal notes leak, while others said the range of outcomes — from roughly $60,000 to $200,000 — only underlines how uncertain forecasts remain for 2026.
Trading desks are reported to be treating the internal slides as one input among many, not as an official firm forecast.
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Public Takeaway
According to the coverage, Fundstrat has not issued a unified, public forecast that collapses the two views into one number.
Instead, clients and the market are being asked to weigh a downside scenario presented by the digital-assets team against a bullish macro scenario voiced by leadership.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee drew a crowd at Korea Blockchain Week 2025 with a bold call: Bitcoin could reach as high as $250,000 by year-end, and Ethereum could climb toward $12,000.
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According to reports, Lee gave a range for Bitcoin of $200,000 to $250,000 and said Ethereum might hit $10,000 to $12,000, with upside to $12,000 to $15,000 under favorable conditions.
His case rested on macro tailwinds and growing institutional interest in crypto assets.
Market Drivers And Timeline
Reports have disclosed Lee’s timing is tied to a mix of factors. He pointed to a possible shift in US monetary policy from a hawkish stance to one that is less aggressive, which he thinks would be positive for risk assets.
BitMine Chairman and Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee said Ethereum is a “truly neutral chain” poised to be Wall Street and the White House’s top choice, predicting a 10–15 year “super cycle.” He expects Bitcoin to reach $200K–$250K and Ethereum $10K–$12K by year-end, with ETH…
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) September 24, 2025
He also mentioned that fourth quarters have traditionally had high performance for Bitcoin. Lee explained Ethereum as embarking on a “super cycle” of 10 to 15 years based on its function in tokenized systems and possible interest from institutions and developers.
Lee’s View On Ethereum
Ethereum’s long-term attractiveness, Lee said, extends beyond the short-term volatility of price movements. He contended the network’s neutrality and widespread developer base position it well for future use in AI, finance, and tokenized real-world assets.
That argument underpins his higher price scenario for ETH, where steady flows and adoption could push the token toward the upper end of his range.
Skeptics Point To Fees And Competition
Not everyone agrees with that outlook. Some industry figures have pushed back. For instance, critics say Ethereum has not seen fee growth that would match the scale Lee predicts, and that some institutional activity is migrating to alternative chains and layer-2 solutions.
Those voices warn that competition, scaling challenges, and shifts in developer activity could limit upside for ETH in the near term.
Macro Risks And What Could Break The Call
Lee’s predictions assume markets stay friendly. A sudden return to tighter US policy, an unexpected economic shock, or harsh regulatory moves could derail a rapid move to $200,000 or higher.
Liquidity matters here. For prices to hit Lee’s top targets by year-end, demand would need to be broad and sustained across spot markets, exchanges, and institutional channels.
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What To Watch Next
According to market coverage, a few clear signals to track: central bank guidance from the US Federal Reserve, trading flows into spot Bitcoin products, large on-chain movements, and institutional custody announcements.
Each of these could either support rapid gains or cool investor appetite quickly, analysts say.
Featured image from BCB Group, chart from TradingView
Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee says Bitcoin price could surpass $150K before the end of the year despite a shoddy end to February. The investor pins his projection on rising institutional adoptions and previous dizzying rallies that characterize Bitcoin’s price actions.
Bitcoin Price Will Exceed The $150K Mark, Says Tom Lee
Despite BTC slipping under $80K, Tom Lee says the asset price is poised to break $150K before the end of the year. The Fundstrat co-founder shared his views on CNBC’s Squawk Box, citing a raft of positive fundamentals for Bitcoin price.
Lee noted that rising institutional adoption for Bitcoin will fuel a massive price rally, sending the top crypto beyond $150K. The executive particularly mentioned incoming Citadel’s cryptocurrency trading services expecting to broaden adoption metrics for Bitcoin.
He argues that Bitcoin price correlates with its adoption figures and recent influx of institutional investors will drive up its value to new highs.
“I think its going to do better than $150K this year,” said Lee. “It’s becoming more widely held. If Citadel starts trading it, its starts to have more broad acceptance.”
Bitcoin Had No Negative Headlines But Prices Took A Massive Hit
Lee attempted to rationalize BTC’s price crash at the tail end of February, pointing out that the asset had no negative headline to drive prices down. He eliminates the prospects of a fundamental-induced price crash as BTC tumbled to a 120-day low to $78k.
For Lee, falling Bitcoin prices are due to a cyclical downturn that could have pushed prices toward $60K. While investors gobbled up the dip, a cross-section of pessimist theorized that the correction marked the end of the bull run.
However, US President Donald Trump’s decision to proceed with a Crypto Strategic Reserve has sent Bitcoin price soaring past $90K. Pundits say the executive order may be the trigger for the march toward $150K for Bitcoin.
Aliyu Pokima
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee has emphasized that Bitcoin’s recent surge could mark the beginning of a sustained rally. With Bitcoin’s price climbing 34% in November and currently trading near $91,395, Tom Lee outlined several factors suggesting the cryptocurrency’s upward momentum may persist.
Tom Lee Highlights Why Bitcoin Price Rally May Continue
Speaking in an interview with CNBC, Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee noted that Bitcoin’s recent price gains are supported by strong market demand and improving technical indicators.
He pointed out that Bitcoin price has entered a consolidation phase near $90,000, which is supported by a series of bullish factors, including increased investor interest and the cryptocurrency’s historical performance during similar market conditions.
According to Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, the current price rally aligns with broader trends in risk assets, with Bitcoin showing resilience amid market corrections. He stated, “Most major indices, including the NASDAQ and S&P 500, have pulled back to key support levels, which often provides a foundation for renewed growth. Bitcoin’s technical setup appears similar, suggesting the possibility of further gains.”
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee also connected Bitcoin’s performance to broader market trends, particularly the “Trump trade.” He remarked that policies like ‘D.O.G.E’ emphasizing deregulation, lower taxes, and reduced government spending could benefit risk assets, including Bitcoin price.
He added that sectors like small-cap stocks and financials are also seeing renewed interest as investors anticipate policy clarity following recent political developments. This optimism is bolstered by expectations that the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening cycle is nearing its end, which could drive demand for both traditional and digital assets.
Bitcoin as a Strategic Asset Amid Economic Concerns
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee also highlighted Bitcoin’s potential role as a strategic asset in addressing economic challenges. While he did not directly revisit his earlier suggestion that Bitcoin could serve as a “treasury reserve asset,” Lee emphasized its appeal as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty.
He explained that ongoing discussions about U.S. monetary policy, including the Federal Reserve’s potential slowdown in interest rate hikes, are contributing to a favorable environment for Bitcoin.
“When uncertainty clears around monetary policy, demand for Bitcoin and other risk assets could increase further,” he noted.
During the interview, Tom Lee addressed the ongoing discussions surrounding the U.S. Treasury Secretary position under the Biden administration. Among the names under consideration hinted at by Elon Musk is Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick, an advocated for Bitcoin’s recognition as a commodity akin to gold and oil.
Institutional and Retail Momentum Behind Bitcoin’s Growth
Institutional and retail participation has played a key role in Bitcoin price recent surge. Data from CryptoQuant indicates a spike in Coinbase’s premium index earlier in the rally, signaling heightened interest from U.S. retail investors. However, the index has since cooled, suggesting that retail activity has slowed in the short term.
Technical analyst Coosh Alemzadeh has observed patterns in Bitcoin’s chart that indicate the potential for further growth. According to Alemzadeh, Bitcoin is currently in the fifth wave of an Elliott Wave cycle, which typically signals the steepest part of a price rally. His projection suggests Bitcoin’s price could reach between $130,000 and $145,000 by late 2024.
Despite the optimistic outlook, experts caution that Bitcoin’s volatility remains high. The success rate for bullish patterns like the one currently forming is only around 54%, highlighting the need for measured optimism among traders.
Kelvin Munene Murithi
Kelvin is a distinguished writer with expertise in crypto and finance, holding a Bachelor’s degree in Actuarial Science. Known for his incisive analysis and insightful content, he possesses a strong command of English and excels in conducting thorough research and delivering timely cryptocurrency market updates.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Fundstrat’s head of research, Tom Lee has doubled down on his initial Bitcoin prediction, strongly emphasizing that the pioneer cryptocurrency will surge to $150,000. The Wall Street strategist highlighted Bitcoin’s strong bullish outlook, believing that the cryptocurrency will eventually pull out of bearish trends soon.
Bitcoin To Hit $150,000 In 2024
In a recent interview with CNBC Television, Lee expressed bullish optimism over Bitcoin’s future outlook, reaffirming his previous prediction that the cryptocurrency would reach new all-time highs of $150,000 by the end of 2024.
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Earlier in May, Lee made a bullish forecast for Bitcoin, anticipating a dramatic surge to $150,000 before the year ends. At the time, the Fundstrat head of research attributed his ambitious forecast to the cooling down of inflation in the United States (US) and a subsequent increase in the demand for BTC. However, now Lee adds that BTC could witness a sharp rebound following the conclusion of Mt Gox’s Bitcoin repayment process to creditors.
During the interview, Lee suggested that the upcoming Bitcoin redistribution by Mt Gox might be driving the bearish pressure on Bitcoin’s price. Earlier in June, Mt Gox disclosed that it would officially start its $9 billion worth of BTC and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) repayment plans in July. The redistribution will see creditors being refunded and compensated for the Bitcoin exchange’s hack attack in 2014.
With $9 billion worth of BTC and BCH set to flood the market, speculations are rising concerning potential sell-offs from creditors. This sentiment has led to BTC’s downward spiral, triggering stronger selling pressures from investors.
Bitcoin’s price also fell below $60,000 at some point, recording even more declines as miners sold off their holdings to purchase more effective mining tools. Lee believes that following any Gox’s repayment process, Bitcoin may have a “pretty sharp rebound” in the second half of the year.
Bearish Trends May Be Over For BTC
Bitcoin price has successfully crossed the $60,000 threshold and is now trading at $62,523, as of writing. Since early June, the cryptocurrency has experienced a sharp downward trend, crashing by up to 20% due to the substantial outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs.
However, Bitcoin may be getting ready for a fresh upside as analysts foresee a major rebound as miners’ selling pressure cool off and the broader crypto market stabilizes.
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Particularly, on-chain market intelligence platform, CryptoQuant has projected a potential upside for Bitcoin in the third quarter of 2024 (Q3). Furthermore, crypto analyst Ali Martinez has expressed bullish sentiment for BTC’s price prospects.
In an X (formerly Twitter) post, Martinez highlighted Bitcoin’s underperformance in the previous month, describing this bearish event as a “negative June.” Despite the downtrend, the analyst foresees a strong rebound for Bitcoin in July, with an average return of 7.98% and a possible price increase to $63,200 or $63,800.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
American investor and financial analyst Tom Lee expects Bitcoin price to skyrocket in the coming future, if things go as expected with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings for exchange-traded funds (ETF). The Fundstrat analyst’s comment comes at a time when the top cryptocurrency continues to maintain almost sideways pattern from the last week of June 2023.
Also Read: Cardano Price Prediction 2023, 2025, 2030: ADA signals for upcoming surge
Starting from March 2023, the S&P 500 Index, which is most closely correlated with Bitcoin among all major US stock indices, is on a steady upward trajectory, in line with BTC price. Also, the traders have been largely resilient in terms of confidence in investing in the crypto market in the same period, during which the highlight was the mass Bitcoin ETF filings from several top financial companies.
What If Spot ETFs Are Approved?
Speaking to CNBC on August 16, 2023, Tom Lee said BTC’s clearing price would be above $150,000 if things go as anticipated around the ETF filings. However, if in case the ETF does not get approved in the United States, it could still go up thanks to the Bitcoin Halving event expected in the first half of 2024, he explained. In that case, the Halving alone could propel the BTC price but not above the $100,000 mark, Lee predicted.
“If the Spot Bitcoin ETF gets approved, the demand would be greater than the supply of Bitcoin, so I think the clearing price of $BTC could be above $150,000 or even $180,000.”
Meanwhile, Michael Saylor-founded MicroStrategy, which is the largest institutional Bitcoin investor in the world, continues to believe in the potential of the top cryptocurrency. Earlier, CoinGape reported that the company held as many as 152,800 BTC as of July 31, 2023, with potential for more purchasing in the upcoming quarters.
Also Read: Ripple Vs SEC: US Supreme Court To Interfere If SEC Appeal Judge Torres’ Ruling
The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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