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Amid strong fund inflows within a month of launching the spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, financial players from other markets are exploring similar opportunities. Last week on January 26, one of China’s largest fund companies – Harvest Hong Kong – applied for a spot Bitcoin ETF approval from the Securities and Futures Commission.
Harvest Fund Initiates Milestone Move With Bitcoin ETF Application
In a significant development, Harvest Fund Hong Kong Company has taken the lead in submitting an application for a Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) to the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Tencent News “First Line” exclusively obtained this information, marking the first instance of such an application in the region.
Sources from Tencent News “First Line” reveal that the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission is actively working towards expediting the approval process for the first Hong Kong Bitcoin spot ETF. The envisioned timeline aims to have the inaugural Hong Kong spot Bitcoin ETF listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange post the Spring Festival.
This move comes just two weeks after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission granted approval for the first batch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 11. The accelerated pace of progress in Hong Kong follows the regulatory green light given to similar ETFs in the United States, signaling a proactive approach by the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission in embracing digital currencies.
Hong Kong Gearing Up To Follow US Footprint
Recent data analysis reveals that within the landscape of 27 Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) holds a substantial market share at $20.2 billion. Other notable players in the U.S. market include BlackRock’s IBIT ($1.8 billion), Proshare’s BITO ($1.78 billion), and Fidelity Fund’s FBTC ($1.6 billion).
Tencent News “First Line” has gathered insights suggesting that the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission may adopt a similar approach to the United States, approving multiple institutions simultaneously. But Harvest Fund is not the sole player in the race for a spot Bitcoin ETF. Other financial players like Venture Smart Financial Holdings Ltd. are also eyeing a similar product launch.
Analysts from Hong Kong’s fund sector opine that mirroring the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF landscape may result in similar performance outcomes. Larger institutions, such as BlackRock and Fidelity, could potentially experience more rapid growth due to their extensive investor base and broader customer acquisition channels.
Family office investor managers in Hong Kong express heightened interest in subscribing to local spot ETFs, despite acknowledging potential discrepancies in scale compared to the U.S. market. Notably, Hong Kong’s spot ETFs may introduce the option for direct Bitcoin subscriptions, in addition to legal currency subscriptions.
The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Bitcoin has declined below $21k during the past day as on-chain data shows signs of long-term holders harvesting profits.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR Has Spiked Up In Recent Days
As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, profit-taking from long-term holders has previously been followed by local tops in the price of the crypto.
The relevant indicator here is the “Spent Output Profit Ratio,” which tells us whether the average Bitcoin investor is selling at a profit or at a loss right now.
When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the holders as a whole are realizing some amount of profits right now.
On the other hand, SOPR values below the threshold suggest the overall market is selling at a loss at the moment.
Naturally, values of the indicator exactly equal to one imply BTC investors are just breaking even on their selling.
Now, there is a Bitcoin cohort called the “long-term holders” (LTHs), which include all investors who have been holding onto their coins since at least 155 days ago, without having moved or sold them.
Here is a chart that shows the trend in the SOPR specifically for this BTC holder group over the last couple of weeks:
Looks like the EMA 16 value of the metric has been quite high recently | Source: CryptoQuant
As you can see in the above graph, the LTH SOPR has sharply spiked up above 1 over the last couple of days, suggesting that these holders have been taking some profits.
The chart also highlights previous instances of high values of the indicator during the last two weeks. It seems like whenever the indicator has spiked up to very high levels in this period, the price of the crypto has observed a local top either at the same time, or shortly after.
Since the LTH SOPR values have again risen recently, a local top formation could take place for BTC, if the same trend as before follows now as well.
And the decline may have already started, as Bitcoin has today slipped below the $21k level after maintaining above it during the weekend.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $20.7k, up 1% in the last week. Over the past month, the crypto has gained 3% in value.
The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days.
The value of the crypto seems to have come down a bit over the last 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Andy Holmes on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
The stars are older than all of us, and older than history itself. Yet bring up astrology with the Bitcoin crowd, and for the most part the response is skepticism or even mockery. Both the study and the cryptocurrency itself share several similarities, such as a mathematical foundation, cyclical behaviors, and unusual financial applications.
If you are the type to believe, or are just curious, a notable full moon is passing, leading into the autumnal equinox tomorrow. How might this seasonal shift impact the cryptocurrency market trend, and how does math apply to what many believe to be pure myth?
September Harvest Moon Could Bring Bounty For Hard Summer Work
Planets all revolve around the sun. Their position at the time each person is born and there forth is believed to instill certain influences at distinct moments. Depending on the rotation and layout of the planets, it can have all kinds of seasonal impacts. The Farmer’s Almanac uses such cycles to predict how much snow each winter holds, for example.
Certain conjunctions are said to bring about famine, drought, or worse. For example, historians believe that a a triple conjunction of Saturn, Jupiter and Mars caused the Black Death plague.
Related Reading | Interview: Crypto Damus On Successfully Combining Bitcoin TA With Financial Astrology
The late WD Gann used planetary influences along with math to predict tops and bottoms with “legendary” precision. He taught no one his tricks, but left all kinds of bizarre mathematical tools behind that few know how to take advantage of.
So how does this all impact Bitcoin?
The Harvest full moon hasn't appeared on the chart yet its so fresh | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
The new moon and full moon chart alone shows significant correlation with Bitcoin price action. Just last night as BTC plunged near $40,000, the full Harvest moon and last full moon of the summer was passing. The moon was named for the fact that farmers used the moon’s light to work late into the night on annual harvests ahead of colder months.
It has been a long, arduous summer for crypto holders, but this moon could be a sign that its time to reap the fruit of one’s labors as the autumn equinox hits.
Could The Fall And Golden Ratio Be The Key To The Next Bitcoin Peak?
The equinox signals change is coming. Change in the season; change in the way humans behave based on those seasons. Seasonality in finance is real, hence the phrase “sell in May, and go away.” The opposite idea is called the Halloween Effect, where investors buy up assets big time to sell around the holidays when enthusiasm is highest.
Seasonality and equinoxes don’t always work with the first ever cryptocurrency, but when combined with the power of the Harvest full moon and other favorable mathematical positioning, there is a recipe for something special.
After holding above the golden ratio, the final leg up comes in the autumn | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Each final leg up in each Bitcoin bull run has begun at the autumnal equinox, driving to new all-time highs until the winter equinox arrives. Since fall arrives each year, but the same effect doesn’t occur, the necessary ingredient for liftoff is a pullback to the golden ratio.
Related Reading | Mercury in Retrograde: Why Bitcoin Traders Fear The Astrological Event
Bitcoin price has always retraced back to the golden ratio, before blasting off to the end of the cycle. Below it has never been filled no matter the cycle. If the same scenario plays out, anyone that has survived the summer’s bearish heat, will have a very happy holiday season.
To be fully clear, everything written here is pure conjecture based on correlation and past cycles and performance. These aren’t a guarantee of future results. But when the math adds up and Fibonacci is everywhere in nature, why wouldn’t the sum of the full moon, autumnal equinox, and Bitcoin be something very interesting.
In closing, we’ll leave you with the JP Morgan quote:
Millionaires don’t use Astrology, billionaires do.
Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or via the TonyTradesBTC Telegram. Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.
Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
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