Bitcoin is testing a key demand zone after breaking down from a symmetrical triangle, putting the market at a critical turning point. While buyers may attempt to defend this support and trigger a rebound, a failure to hold could open the door to further downside in the near term. 

Bearish Triangle Breakdown Sends Bitcoin Toward Key Liquidity Zone

Minga highlighted that the market has experienced a bearish breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern, and the price is trending toward the 50% wick fill region of the previous weekly candle, an area containing significant untested liquidity and a long limit order that was previously front-ran. While he expects this long position to be filled, the risk on this trade is minimal at 0.25%, effectively serving as a risk-free hedge against his existing short position.

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Minga maintains a bullish bias for the remainder of the month, but he emphasizes that this outlook requires technical confirmation, specifically a bounce from the $60,700 level. Losing this key support likely invites further downside, bringing the $58,900 level into focus. Given that the daily trend is showing clear signs of exhaustion, Minga views the $60,700–$58,900 range as a high-probability zone for a potential recovery.

However, the analyst cautions that exhaustion does not inherently guarantee a reversal. Market conditions can often result in a slow, grinding decline as the asset hunts for liquidity on both sides, leading to highly choppy price action. This behavior is historically common near major market turning points.

Given that the market is potentially nearing a macro bottom, the possibility of a prolonged, choppy descent cannot be ignored. Should this scenario materialize and the current support zones fail to hold, Minga identifies the $54,500–$49,000 region as the next critical downside target. 

$60,800 Remains BTC’s Most Important Battleground

According to analyst @wangtuai888, whose track record includes eight consecutive accurate trend predictions, the market is currently hovering at a decisive juncture. As long as the $60,800 support holds, the asset remains within an uptrend. However, should the price break and close a 1-hour solid candle below $60,800, which marks a critical Point of Control (POC) and a vacuum zone, the analyst anticipates a sharp, immediate decline.

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If the $60,800 support holds, @wangtuai888 expects an initial rebound toward $62,400 to break the previous minor high and shift the local market structure. This would be followed by a pullback to the $61,800 POC, which the analyst identifies as a favorable entry point for long positions.

The strategy then pivots toward a tactical shorting opportunity. The analyst intends to initiate a short position near the 63,000 level, noting that even if a stop-loss is triggered, the high reward-to-risk ratio makes this a worthwhile trade. 

Ultimately, the analyst emphasizes that this expected rebound should not be mistaken for a full market reversal. The broader direction remains firmly in a downtrend, and the ultimate price target for this bearish cycle is $55,500.

Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

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On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed how the latest Ethereum cycle never reached a profitability threshold cleared in previous bull runs.

Ethereum Has Seen Its Profitability Profile Compress This Cycle

In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about how the share of supply carrying a gain of more than 300% is currently looking on the Ethereum blockchain. Below is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in this metric.

The value of the indicator seems to have gone down over the last few years | Source: Glassnode on X

From the graph, it’s visible that the Ethereum supply sitting at a 3x profit has declined recently and hit the 11% mark. This suggests that just over a tenth of the cryptocurrency’s supply in circulation is in a significant gain at the current spot price.

The reason behind this supply being at a low level is naturally in part due to the bearish market conditions. It alone, however, can’t explain just how low the indicator is. It’s apparent in the chart that the last time that the network saw this supply occupy a lower share was all the way back in February 2017. Both the 2019 and 2022 bear markets never saw profitability this bad.

In fact, bear market levels isn’t all that has differed in the current cycle. In the previous two cycles, the 3x profit supply crossed the 50% level during the bullish phase. This cycle never saw the metric break the 30% mark, let alone approach the 50% threshold. “ETH’s profitability profile has fundamentally compressed relative to prior cycles,” noted Glassnode.

In related news, Ethereum and other assets have faced a steep drawdown recently that has had a notable effect on short-term investor profitability. On-chain analytics firm Santiment has shared in an X post the data related to how the various top coins have compared in terms of this.

The metric cited by Santiment is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, which is a popular indicator for gauging the profit-loss status of holders as a whole. Here, the analytics firm has specifically used the version of the MVRV Ratio tracking the profitability of buyers from the last 30 days.

The trend in the 30-day MVRV Ratio for BTC, ETH, ADA, XRP, and LINK | Source: Santiment on X

As displayed in the above chart, Ethereum, Bitcoin, and other assets saw the 30-day MVRV Ratio plummet to a deep value as the market crash played out. With the rebound that has followed since then, however, the situation has improved a bit for buyers from the past month.

That said, losses continue to be significant for this group. The 30-day MVRV Ratio is currently sitting at -10% for BTC and -12% for ETH. The analytics firm explained:

When the average trader is sitting on significant losses across networks that are normally hovering at 0% (zero sum game), selling pressure often becomes exhausted as weak hands capitulate and long-term investors begin accumulating.

ETH Price

Ethereum had fallen near the $1,500 level during the weekend, but the coin has since bounced back as its value is now sitting around $1,680.

Looks like the price of the coin has bounced back a bit | Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

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