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Bitcoin has been faced with a challenging start to 2025 with a rejection at the $100,000 mark. Notably, Bitcoin has been unable to hold substantially above the $100,000 price level since it first broke through in early December, and multiple breakouts have been followed by rejections. The most recent rejection came last week when the price peaked at $102,000 on Monday, only to reverse sharply and fall to $92,000 by Thursday.
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This continued tug-of-war has brought the bearish case for BTC into sharper focus, with technical analysis highlighting a 50/50 chance of a further drop or a bounce.
$90,000: A Pivotal Support Zone Under Threat
Recent Bitcoin price action has significantly put the $90,000 price point as the most notable support level for the bulls. Although the crypto has largely held above the $90,000 support level even during the recent corrections, the bearish outlook hinges on its ability to defend this level.
According to technical analysis by crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO, Bitcoin has made five different attempts to test a support trendline around $90,000, which further reveals the importance of the level. This repeated retest increases the chance of weakening the support strength and is gradually making Bitcoin more vulnerable to a sharp decline.
With this in mind, the major task for Bitcoin bulls would be to hold above the $90,000 and break resistance levels above $100,000 in order to invalidate a bearish outlook. Should Bitcoin fall below $90,000, it could cascade to a further price drop to the $87,000 range or even lower. A fall below $87,000 could, in turn, cause a quick fall through a $12,000 gap to reach $75,000.
Resistance Levels To Break: $103,000 To $108,500
As noted by EGRAG CRYPTO, Bitcoin could continue to pose a bearish threat until it closes above a few resistance levels. These resistance levels are situated at $103,000, $106,400, and $108,500, and consistent daily closes above these thresholds are required to confirm a bullish trend. The third resistance of $108,500 is the most notable, as a break above it would see Bitcoin trading at new all-time highs.
According to EGRAG CRYPTO, current technical indicators suggest that the chances of a pump are low at the moment. For instance, Bitcoin has now lost the support of the 21 EMA on the daily candlestick timeframe, and sentiment is now in a neutral zone on the Fear and Greed Index.
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As it stands, the biggest factor that could see bullish momentum return to Bitcoin is the upcoming inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20th and the anticipated crypto-positive policies that during the new administration. EGRAG CRYPTO notes that the event could either trigger a short-term rally or exacerbate the ongoing decline. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $94,400.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
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Now that Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been approved by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the crypto space anticipates more ETFs to enter the market, particularly Spot Ethereum ETFs.
Despite this, analysts at JP Morgan, an American multinational financial service firm, have revealed a less than optimistic outlook for the potential approval of Ethereum Spot ETFs.
Ethereum Spot ETF Approval Prospects
In a note to clients issued on Thursday, January 18, JP Morgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the Managing Director at the financial service firm, expressed their reservations regarding the anticipated approval of Spot Ethereum ETFs by the SEC.
The analysts cited regulatory and judicial reasons as the basis for their prediction, asserting that the likelihood of Ethereum Spot ETF approval is no higher than 50%.
“While we are sympathetic to the above arguments, we are skeptical that the SEC will classify ether as a commodity as soon as May,” analysts at JP Morgan stated.
Just last week, the SEC delayed the approval of Fidelity’s Ethereum Spot ETF. The regulator postponed its decision date to March 5, 2024, stating it needed more time to evaluate Fidelity’s application. Additionally, the deadline for the SEC’s final decision on the Spot Ethereum ETF applications extends from late January to August 2024.
The most decisive date that would give the crypto space a better outlook on the potential launch of these ETFs is January 25, the deadline for Grayscale’s Ethereum Spot ETF application.
Earlier in June 2022, Grayscale took legal action against the SEC for its rejection of its Spot Bitcoin ETF. In August 2023, the asset management company emerged victorious in its lawsuit, after the US Columbia Court of Appeal ruled that the SEC was wrong to reject Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETF application.
With the SEC’s recent approval of Spot Bitcoin ETF after months of legal and regulatory challenges, many crypto enthusiasts anticipate a lengthy regulatory process before the potential approval of Spot Ethereum ETFs. If Ethereum Spot ETFs are accepted by the SEC, then it would offer investors an unprecedented opportunity to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency without the need to own it.
ETH bulls lose control to bears | Source: ETHUSD on Tradingview.com
Why ETH Spot ETF Approval Hovers At 50%
Presently, the regulatory framework surrounding cryptocurrencies in the United States is still shrouded in uncertainty. This includes XRP, which suffered a lawsuit from the SEC after the regulator labeled it a security in 2020. Additionally, there have been many other cryptocurrencies the SEC has identified as a security.
The potential approval of Ethereum Spot ETFs generally hinges on the SEC’s classification of the digital asset, whether it is a commodity or a security. In January 2024, the regulatory agency approved Ethereum futures ETFs, ‘implicitly’ accepting Ethereum as a commodity.
If the SEC identifies Ethereum as a commodity, then the potential approval of an ETF application may be in sight. However, as JP Morgan analysts have stated, it may take a considerable amount of time before the SEC makes that decision.
The regulatory agency has continually taken an aggressive approach in its regulation of cryptocurrencies in the US. Following the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler publicly declared that the agency still does not approve or endorse Bitcoin, labeling all cryptocurrencies as investment contracts subject to federal securities laws.
Featured image from Forbes, chart from Tradingview.com
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Following notable changes to the ARK 21Shares Spot Bitcoin ETF application, Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have predicted that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could approve a fund as early as next year.
90% Chance Of Approval
In a post shared on his X (formerly Twitter) platform, Seyffart highlighted his team’s prediction of the 90% chance that a Spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved by Ark Invest’s January 10 deadline. January 10 is the day the SEC is expected to make a final decision (approval or denial) on ARK Invest’s Spot Bitcoin ETF application.
Their latest prediction comes amid the recent amendment ARK Invest and 21Shares made to their Spot Bitcoin ETF prospectus. These updates include further context to the fund and additional risk disclosures. These analysts believe that this sort of amendment only happens when a fund is on its way to being approved.
These Bloomberg analysts had earlier predicted (following Grayscale’s victory) that there was a 75% chance that the pending Spot Bitcoin ETF applications could be approved this year and that the odds would rise to 95% by the end of next year if these funds weren’t approved by then.
Eric Balchunas noted on his X platform that Invesco Galaxy had also amended its Spot Bitcoin ETF prospectus following the ARK 21Shares amendment. He stated that he expects other applicants to update their applications soon. This suggests that the SEC could approve all applications simultaneously, similar to what it did with the Ethereum futures ETFs.
BTC price looking weak | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Given Huge Boost Following SEC’s Decision
Meanwhile, these Spot Bitcoin ETF applications were given a huge boost following the SEC’s decision not to appeal the court’s ruling in its case against Grayscale. The SEC had until October 13 to appeal the Court of Appeal’s ruling that it had acted arbitrarily and capriciously in disapproving Grayscale’s application to convert its GBTC fund into a Spot Bitcoin ETF.
Following its decision not to file an en banc application or appeal to the Supreme Court, Reuters reported that the appeals court is expected to issue a mandate laying out how the SEC could carry out its order, including the Commission reviewing Grayscale’s application again.
James Seyffart also noted that dialogue between Grayscale and SEC should begin next week. However, it remains uncertain if or when the SEC will approve these applications, especially considering that it has delayed its decision on all Spot Bitcoin ETFs till next year.
Bitcoin has reacted positively to the news of the SEC’s decision not to file an appeal, currently trading at around $26,849.76, up in the last twenty-four hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Featured image from Forbes, chart from Tradingview.com
Dogecoin DOGE/USD is trading for $0.05979, a 1.28% gain in the past day and 0.75 % in the last week. The uptick could be due to Dogechain, a smart contract platform inspired by the canine-themed token.
Dogechain DC/USD is up 25% in the past day and 200% in the last week. DC, though distinct from Dogecoin, could also be behind DOGE trading volumes. The volumes increased 37% to $216,705,178 in the period. Elsewhere, although the excitement around Dogecoin seems to have died, Elon Musk’s Twitter deal could revive the blockchain.
The takeover bid, which has been marred with legal tussles, is expected to rejuvenate DOGE. Earlier in the undertaking, Musk had hinted at the possibility of using DOGE in Twitter transactions.
Lastly, the Dogecoin mining hash rate is up again. It peaked at a seven-month high last week. The metric, which is the computing power for minting crypto, was reported at 815 TH/s, according to Coinwarz. The trajectory is poised to pump the price of the digital asset. Besides the positive sentiment, DOGE is at the lower end of consolidation.
Doge holds onto support amid consolidation
Source: Tradingview
From the daily chart above, DOGE/USD has bounced off the support but remains in a consolidation. The pattern of a high of $0.065 and a low of $0.0.0578 has remained so since September 6. The speed and price change momentum indicator, RSI, is close to the neutral level at 46. Similarly, the MACD shows a weak signal, almost close to neutral.
Concluding thoughts
Despite the meme token holding on to the support, there is a minimal chance of a bullish reversal. The key indicators support the argument – all show a low momentum. The sentiment can, however, change at any price above the resistance. Even so, the momentum indicators should turn bullish to welcome any buy entry.
Where to buy DOGE
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