Bitcoin traded as high as $73,000 following a 9% price rally in the past week. However, the broader market suggests the leading cryptocurrency is still stuck in a bear phase that’s been dragging on for more than six months. Interestingly, historical data suggest that recent price movement could trigger a significant bullish rebound, providing investors with a mid-term to long-term relief period.
Bitcoin Nears Key Support Level As Bulls Eye Historical Recovery Run
In an X post on April 11, renowned analyst Ali Martinez shares a positive observation of the Bitcoin price chart, highlighting a cyclical price rally. Notably, this price surge is triggered by a retest of a particular long-standing ascending trendline during an extended correction period, as is being observed. Martinez names this ascending trendline the “Parabolic Guard,” describing it as probably the most consistent technical level in Bitcoin history. Over the last 10 years, a price retest of this support line has consistently preceded a massive rebound. In 2017, Bitcoin’s contact with this trendline produced a staggering 961% gain in the following months.
This is perhaps the most respected technical line in Bitcoin $BTC history. For nearly ten years, this ascending trendline has acted as the "Parabolic Guard." Every touch has historically preceded a massive expansion:
• 2017: +963% • 2018: +261%• 2020: +1,126% • 2022:… https://t.co/uIDjVPVIyx pic.twitter.com/QloO6k66OO
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) April 11, 2026
A similar event was observed in 2018; however, it resulted in a lower yield of 261%. In 2020, Bitcoin’s retest of the Parabolic Guard triggered 1,126% price increase, before the 2022 bear market commenced. The bullish condition was met again later in 2022, resulting in a 660% gain observed over the last four years. According to Martinez, the historic ascending trend line currently runs between $56,000 and $60,000, about 20% below the current market price. Interestingly, the present cycle low lies around $60,000, which Bitcoin formed amid an intense market sell-off in early February.
According to Martinez’s latest post, the market would likely need a return to this market bottom to end the bear market and initiate a long-term recovery. The prominent analyst also explains that Bitcoin’s contact with the Parabolic Guard would slow smart money’s accumulation in anticipation of the next price surge.
Bitcoin Market Overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was valued at $71,508, following a 1.81% loss in the last day. Meanwhile, daily trading volume has dropped by 27.35% and is valued at $26.35 billion. According to CoinCodex data, the overall market sentiment is heavily bearish, while the Fear & Greed Index remains in extreme fear territory. Nevertheless, CoinCodex analysts expect Bitcoin’s market bounce, driven by the easing geopolitical tensions, to persist for the time being, with price predictions of a $79,729 in the next five days.
Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview
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The price of Bitcoin has shown no significant movement in the last day rising by only 0.78% according to data from CoinMarketCap. Following a widescale crash in the global financial markets, the crypto market leader pulled off a strong recovery in the past week, gaining by 16% to reach a peak of $62,000. As Bitcoin currently retains a sideways movement, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe has revealed a likely condition for the token’s next bullish run.
Bitcoin Poised For Bullish Breakout If This Price Action Happens, Analyst Says
In an X post on August 10, van de Poppe shared an interesting prediction on Bitcoin’s price trajectory stating that if the digital asset closed its monthly candle around the $60,000 price zone, it could indicate the asset is consolidating for a breakout. According to the crypto veteran, it is likely that such consolidation could finally propel Bitcoin to embark on a bullish run reaching a price target of $250,000, which represents a potential 350% gain on the token’s current price.
It's still early in the month, but if the monthly candle of $BTC is going to close around $60K, it seems like it's consolidation before the big bull breakout.
Very likely that we'll be at the start of;– The big run of Bitcoin to $250K+– The surge of #Altcoins pic.twitter.com/Tk7wz3lm95
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) August 10, 2024
Following the Bitcoin halving event in April, investors and market experts remain highly expectant of a bullish price run by the premier cryptocurrency as seen in previous years. However, Bitcoin has only shown a consistent range-bound movement moving between $55,000 to $70,000 over the last four months.
Albeit, these price actions draw no cause for alarm as Bitcoin is known to historically commence its bullish run approximately six months after the halving event, which falls close to van de Poppe’s prediction. Interestingly, the current bull cycle is particularly surrounded by high levels of optimism as illustrated by multiple six-figure price predictions by top analysts. This is driven by many factors, most prominently the Bitcoin spot ETFs.
Interestingly, these Bitcoin ETFs currently valued at $17 billion, may be set for monumental inflow levels after American banking giant Morgan Stanley sanctioned 15,000 advisers to officially offer these funds as portfolio additions. Furthermore, the digital asset industry has recently made an unexpected foray into the US political scene as party and candidate opinions on crypto policy now look pivotal in upcoming elections in November.
It appears this nascent industry may finally receive sufficient support from the US government in terms of regulations and legitimacy, which can boost the performance of various cryptocurrencies especially Bitcoin over 12 – 18 months.
BTC Price Overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin continues to trade at $60,944 with a 0.44% increase in the last seven days. Meanwhile, the token’s daily trading volume is down by 52.88% and valued at $15.7 billion.
Related Reading: Morgan Stanley Authorizes Advisors To Offer Bitcoin ETF Products, Report
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Crypto asset management firm Hashdex met with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the required changes to the Hashdex spot Bitcoin ETF application, according to the latest memorandum. The move comes as the SEC is obliged to consider approving the United States’ first spot Bitcoin ETF tracking BTC price.
Hashdex Met With the SEC Before Deadline
After a constructive meeting between the U.S. SEC and spot Bitcoin ETF issuers last week to make the required changes, Hashdex met again with the SEC on Tuesday, December 26.
However, it seems the meeting was different from recent meetings as Hashdex met with SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s office, raising speculation within the markets. Bitcoin ETF issuers have had meetings and calls with the SEC’s trading and markets division and corporate finance division.
Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart also noted Hashdex executives meeting Samantha Ostrom from the SEC Office of Chair. Ostrom met with Hashdex chief investment officer Samir Kerbage, Tidal Financial Group’s Michael Venuto, K&L Gates’ Richard Kerr and Peter Shea, and Neel Maitra from law firm Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati.
The discussion was regarding NYSE Arca’s proposed rule change to list and trade shares of Hashdex Bitcoin ETF under the Rule 8.500-E.
Also Read: Grayscale Makes Amended Bitcoin ETF Filing After Silbert’s Exit
Spot Bitcoin ETF Gains Ground
Stock and crypto markets await approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the US SEC amid constructive talks. Spot Bitcoin ETF issues are making final changes to the prospectus regarding ‘cash creates’, with the SEC likely to approve only cash-only redemptions.
Meanwhile, Grayscale has made another amended S-3 filing with the securities regulator to convert GBTC to spot Bitcoin ETF. It follows Grayscale Investments chairman Barry Silbert stepping down from the position.
BlackRock, Pando Asset, and Hashdex recently submitted updated S-1 filings with the SEC. Hashdex has named BitGo as Bitcoin ETF custodian.
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The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Representatives from investment manager Blackrock have held a meeting with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) yet again on Tuesday, December 20, 2023, in what could be one of the last steps the Commission would take before the potential approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF filings before the January 10, 2024 deadline.
Also Read: CFTC Nod to Bitnomial Clearinghouse License Sparks Vertical Integration Debate
Blackrock Meets US SEC Yet Again
According to reports, the Blackrock representatives met with the agency officials regarding its iShares Bitcoin Trust approval. This meeting makes it the firm’s third such meeting in a span of just a week, ahead of the much anticipated deadline window of January 8-10, 2024, when the US SEC is expected to give its nod for the first ever spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States.
Considering the stature and financial prowess Blackrock enjoys in the mainstream financial world, it appears that the US SEC is more likely to be in the direction of approval. However, analysts are warning about the likelihood of yet another delay in decision making before January 10.
Approval Unlikely Before January 10?
James Seyffart, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, said the frequent meetings between US SEC and Blackrock does not impact the timeline for possible decision making before the deadline. Seyffart has been arguing that the agency could most likely give approval to either all the filers at once or at least in a few batches, so that a single company would not gain the first mover advantage. He said,
“Doesn’t change dates in my/our view. Still watching that January 8-10 window. (Yes technically some filers could be approved before that — just don’t think its likely)”
MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor, however is confident of the spot ETF approval in January and a subsequent demand shock for Bitcoin. He said the approval could be the biggest market event in the last 30 years. Meanwhile, Mike Alfred, an entrepreneur, predicted a 98.7% chance of Bitcoin ETF approval before January 10. It remains to be seen if the Bitcoin (BTC) price shows increased volatility in the lead up to the deadline.
Also Read: Ripple President Foresees End to “Speculative Hype Cycles” in 2024
The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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