The Bitcoin price has continued its horrendous run of form in the final quarter of 2025, ending the year pretty much as it began. Having lost the psychological $100,000 level on Thursday, November 13, the premier cryptocurrency appears to be free-falling under significant bearish pressure.

Theories and debates continue to swirl around whether the Bitcoin price is merely feeling the effect of a naturally volatile crypto market or the bear season is slowly kicking in. A specific hypothesis explains that a loss of a certain technical level could spell a longer period of correction for BTC.

Factors Behind The Bitcoin Price Collapse

In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, XWIN Research hypothesized and proposed how long the current Bitcoin price downturn could last. Before diving into its theory, the digital asset research firm first highlighted some of the factors behind the current decline in BTC’s price.

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XWIN Research revealed that the decreased expectations for a December rate cut are one of the reasons behind the recent decline. The shift in the Federal Reserve’s stance dragged the Bitcoin price below the key $100,000 level. 

Secondly, the crypto analytics firm noted that capital flows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs)  have reversed sharply, with the investment products seeing nearly $1.1 billion in outflows in recent days. These massive withdrawals signal a waning institutional demand and general market sentiment. 

Finally, XWIN Research revealed that the excessive leverage in the market unwound violently. “Once major supports broke, cascading liquidations triggered more than 600 million USD in forced long closures within hours. Added to this were exchange-related rumors and DeFi security incidents, pushing sentiment into extreme fear,” the analytics firm wrote.

How Long Could This Decline Continue?

After outlining the factors behind this Bitcoin price decline, XWIN Research put forward a theory and a potential timeline for the future trajectory of the flagship cryptocurrency. With the $92,000 – $94,000 region being pinpointed as the next critical support, a breach of this zone could see the price of BTC fall to around $85,000.

XWIN Research wrote in its Quicktake post that this $92,000 breakdown could see the Bitcoin price correction linger until early or mid-2026. However, the DeFi analytics firm noted that recent on-chain data offers a more optimistic outlook for the market leader.

For instance, the cost basis of 6-to-12-month holders stands around $94,000, serving as a strong structural support. So long as the Bitcoin price stays above this band, the long-term bullish case for the premier cryptocurrency remains intact.

XWIN Research added:

Several catalysts could drive the next recovery. The most important is an improvement in macro conditions: a shift toward rate cuts or broader liquidity expansion in 2026 would draw capital back into risk assets. 

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $94,930, reflecting a nearly 4% decline in the past 24 hours.

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView