The latest on-chain data shows that the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum, may be currently undervalued. Having witnessed a strong resurgence in the past week, the altcoin could be on the verge of an extended rally over the next few weeks.
Ethereum’s NVT Ratio Hits New Record Low
In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, crypto analyst CryptoOnchain reported that there has been a disproportionate increase in transaction volume concerning ETH compared to its market capitalization.
The relevant indicator here is the Ethereum NVT (Network Value to Transactions ratio) (30-day SMA), which measures the ratio of Ethereum’s market capitalization to its daily transaction volume over the span of 30 days.
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CryptoOnchain revealed that the 30-day moving average NVT recently hit its lowest point ever recorded. As explained by the on-chain analyst, this could suggest two things: firstly, that the Ethereum token is undervalued.
For context, a low NVT reflects very high transaction volume compared to a relatively low market capitalization. What this means is that the Ethereum network is being heavily used, but the price isn’t showing its worth as much as its usage suggests. Following this logic, one could conclude the market is currently undervaluing Ethereum’s utility.
The second indication from the historically low NVT is that the increase in transaction volume could be due to “temporary factors such as DeFi, NFT events, or large capital movements.” According to the analyst, these temporary factors do not necessarily mean sustainable growth for the ETH price.
What To Expect
CryptoOnchain cited historical occurrences to explain the typical case where an NVT bottom is a result of market undervaluation. In this case, it has been observed that sharp NVT bottoms precede bullish phases.
However, in what was a caveat, the online pundit mentioned that there have been cases where very low NVT levels were accompanied by further price declines.
Seeing that the Ethereum NVT is not just at a mere low level, but at its all-time low, it seems more likely that the market is undervaluing the token’s worth. It is therefore not out of the question to expect a more upward swing in the price of the cryptocurrency.
Related Reading: Ethereum To $6,800 By Year End? CME Futures Data Shows Record Institutional Demand
Nevertheless, with the possibility that a bullish phase might not necessarily follow in mind, investors might want to tread cautiously. As of this writing, the Ethereum token is valued at approximately $4,670, reflecting an over 4% price increase in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView
On May 22, Bitcoin registered a new all-time high at $111,970. Since then, market prices have retraced to around $108,000, largely influenced by macroeconomic pressures. Following this development, prominent crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci backs the premier cryptocurrency to soon return and surpass this current all-time high, based on recent on-chain data.
Bitcoin Advanced NVT Holds Above Key Level: Bullish Continuation Remains In Play
The Advanced Network Value to Transactions (NVT) metric is an on-chain valuation model that compares Bitcoin’s market cap to its daily USD transaction volume. It is used to evaluate whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued relative to usage.
Generally, higher Advanced NVT values indicate heightened investor speculation, while sustained levels above key thresholds have often coincided with major bull runs. According to Burak Kesmeci in an X post on May 24, the Bitcoin Advanced NVT signal has recently crossed above the +2 standard deviation (+2xSD), a historically significant boundary that signals a period of bullish market strength and robust investor confidence.
As seen in Q4 2023 and Q4 2024, an advanced NVT crossover above the +2xSD highlighted in orange in the image below has previously served as a launchpad for bullish continuations, resulting in extended periods of upward momentum.
Although the Advanced NVT signal is presently turned downward, Kesmeci explains that as long as this metric remains above the +2xSD level, Bitcoin is likely to maintain its uptrend, indicating there is strong potential for the cryptocurrency to enter new price territory in the coming weeks.
With Bitcoin surpassing its former all-time high in the past week, the premier cryptocurrency continues to look likely to attain the lofty price targets being set by several market analysts. However, macroeconomic factors, most notably US trade policy, remain a major influence capable of inducing significant setbacks as seen since the start of 2025.
Bitcoin Market Overview
At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $107,835 following price gains of 4.02% and 15.37% in the past seven and thirty days, respectively. Meanwhile, the market’s daily trading volume is down by 31.58% and valued at $45.94 billion.
According to data from blockchain analytics firm Sentora, the Bitcoin network experienced a 51.03% increase in network fees, signaling a significant rise in transactions and user activities.
Meanwhile, exchange inflows were valued at $184 million, which Sentora has described as “mild” relative to previous weeks. This development indicates that many investors opted against selling their BTC holdings despite a new all-time high, signaling long-term market confidence.
With a market cap of $2.13 trillion, Bitcoin continues to rank as the largest cryptocurrency and the fifth-largest asset in the world.
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According to the latest on-chain data, the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross has fallen into a crucial region. What could this mean for the price of the premier cryptocurrency?
What Does The Falling NVT Golden Cross Mean For Price?
In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, an analyst with the pseudonym Burakkesmeci revealed that the price of Bitcoin might have reached a “local bottom.” This exciting prognosis is based on the latest movement by the “NVT Golden Cross” metric.
For context, the “Network Value to Transactions” ratio is an on-chain indicator that estimates the difference between the Bitcoin market capitalization and transaction volume. Typically, a high NVT value signals that an asset’s price is high compared to the network’s transaction volume, suggesting that the coin is overvalued.
Conversely, when the value of the NVT metric is low, it implies that the coin’s market value is small relative to the transaction volume. Usually, this indicates that the asset is undervalued and its price could still have room for upside movement.
Now, the Golden Cross indicator is a modified iteration of the NVT ratio, and it helps to mark gradual buy and sell zones in short-term trends. According to Burakkesmeci explained that when the NVT GC exceeds 2.2 (the red zone), it means that the price in a short-term trend is overheating (and the formation of a potential local top).
On the other hand, the NVT Golden Cross dipping below -1.6 suggests that the price decline is wearing out, signaling a potential bottom. Burakkesmeci noted that these local tops and bottoms are regions rather than just precise levels.
As shown in the chart above, the NVT Golden Cross has crossed beneath -1.6 and is currently around -3.3, suggesting that the Bitcoin price is at a local bottom. According to the CryptoQuant analyst, this could represent a “gradual buying opportunity” for investors looking to get into the market.
Bitcoin Market In Extreme Greed
Investors will want to proceed with caution especially as the Bitcoin market seems to be overheating in the long term. According to another CryptoQuant analyst, the Fear & Greed Index has flagged extreme greed for the premier cryptocurrency.
Typically, when the Fear & Greed Index moves toward one end, there is a potential for market reversal depending on the sentiment. In this case, where the market is in extreme greed, the Bitcoin price may be about to witness a correction.
As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just beneath $91,000, reflecting a 3% increase in the past day. According to CoinGecko data, the market leader is up by an impressive 19% in the last seven days.
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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has entered into the overbought region, something that could be bearish for the price.
Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Has Been Going Up Recently
As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the most recent touch of this zone led to a drop in the price of the cryptocurrency. The “Network Value to Transactions” (NVT) is an indicator that measures the ratio between the market cap of Bitcoin and its transaction volume (both in USD).
What this metric tells is whether the asset is overpriced or underpriced right now, based on how the value of the network (the market cap) compares with its ability to transact coins (the transaction volume).
High values of the indicator suggest the cryptocurrency’s cap is inflated compared to its volume, and hence, the coin’s price may be overvalued currently. Similarly, low values can imply the asset may be undervalued at the moment.
Now, a metric derived from the NVT is the “NVT Golden Cross,” which compares the 30-day moving average (MA) of the NVT with its 10-day MA. By taking the ratio of the long-term and short-term trends like this, the indicator can help point out the tops and bottoms in the NVT.
Here is a chart that displays how the value of the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has changed over the past year:
The value of the metric seems to have been climbing in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant
As shown in the above graph, the quant has marked the historical regions where the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has signaled underbought and overbought conditions for the asset.
It looks like the values of the metric above 2.2 have been a sign that the cryptocurrency is undersold, while those below the -1.6 level have implied an oversold condition.
From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator touched the underpriced region last month, and the price reacted by observing some bullish momentum. Since then, the metric has seen an overall uptrend.
A week or so ago, when Bitcoin was floating around the $30,000 level, the NVT Golden Cross entered inside the overpriced region. Following this formation, the price faced some severe drawdown as it plunged to the low $27,000 level.
The metric cooled down for a while following this selloff, but in the past couple of days, it has once again risen to touch the red zone. This would mean that the asset may be becoming overbought again.
Over the past day, however, Bitcoin has actually only observed some strong upwards momentum, as the coin’s value has now recovered to levels above $29,000 again.
In the past, tops haven’t always been immediately formed whenever the NVT Golden Cross has surged to this area, so this wouldn’t exactly be unprecedented. However, considering that the surge may have only made the coin more overpriced, a local top may be hit soon for the asset, if this metric’s pattern is anything to go by.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $29,400, up 1% in the last week.
Looks like BTC has sharply surged over the last 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from mana5280 on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
On-chain data shows signs aren’t looking good for Bitcoin as the NVT ratio is indicating that the crypto is still overvalued right now.
Bitcoin NVT Ratio Continues To Be At High Values
As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, BTC is currently overvalued from an on-chain perspective. The “Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio” is an indicator that measures the ratio between the market cap of Bitcoin and its transaction volume (both in USD).
This ratio judges whether the current value of Bitcoin (that is, the market cap) is fair or not, by comparing it against the network’s ability to transact coins right now (the transaction volume). When the metric has a high value, it means the price of BTC is high compared to the volume, and thus the coin could be inside a bubble at the moment. On the other hand, low values suggest BTC may be undervalued as the chain has a high ability to transact coins (in comparison to the market cap) right now.
Here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVT ratio over the past year:
Looks like the metric's value has been pretty high during recent weeks | Source: CryptoQuant
As the above graph highlights, the Bitcoin NVT ratio jumped up following the LUNA collapse back in May of this year and has since mostly stayed at similar or higher levels. This means that despite the price observing multiple crashes in the period, the coin’s value still became increasingly overvalued as volumes across the market sharply dropped.
Even after the FTX crash, which has delivered another solid blow to the crypto’s market cap, the metric has only climbed higher as it has registered a new high for the year recently. BTC has only been getting more and more overpriced as the bear has gotten deeper, suggesting the dire state of the market in terms of trading volumes.
The quant also notes that the number of UTXOs in loss (basically the amount of wallets/investors in loss), has been consistently rising throughout the bear.
The metric continues to ride on a constant uptrend | Source: CryptoQuant
Both these signs are certainly not in the favor of Bitcoin and may imply there is further pain ahead for investors. “A more extended bear market could be seen as a potential risk that could add selling pressure,” explains the analyst.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $16,800, down 5% in the last week.
The price action in the asset seems to have been stale in the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Maxim Hopman on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com