As Bitcoin (BTC) enters the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, bullish sentiment is growing, fueled by historical post-halving patterns that have repeatedly marked the beginning of explosive market moves. A crypto analyst now points to recurring trends observed in past cycles, where Q3 has often acted as a launchpad for significant price rallies in BTC following each halving year. 

Bitcoin Post-Halving Years Point To Explosive Q3

Luca, a crypto market expert on X (formerly Twitter), has doubled down on expectations for a major Bitcoin price rally in the coming quarter. He argues that expectations of an extended consolidation in Bitcoin, based on the fractals and market behavior seen in 2023 and early 2024, fail to account for a critical factor: 2025 is a post-halving year. 

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The analyst points to a consistent pattern observed in every post-halving year throughout Bitcoin’s history. In his chart analysis published on June 26, Luca notes that Q3 in these years have consistently demonstrated strength, with no historical precedent for weakness, reinforcing the case for a bullish breakout. 

The chart compares Q3 performance during the post-halving years of 2013, 2017, and 2021. In each case, Bitcoin entered the third quarter with moderate or corrective price action, only to rally significantly in the weeks that followed. 

The left panel of the chart shows the 2013 post-halving year, where Bitcoin went from under $100 in July to over $680 in November. In 2017, the middle panel highlighted a similar trajectory, where BTC broke out from under $2,800 in early Q3 to over $16,000 by year-end.

The most recent cycle in 2021, shown in the right panel of the chart, saw a Q3 recovery rally that took Bitcoin from under $39,000 in July to a former all-time high above $69,000 in November.  

Notably, Luca maintains that this consistent historical behavior is not coincidental, predicting that a similar rally could unfold in the current cycle, within the next few months. While he acknowledges the possibility of a short-term pullback, he emphasizes that Bitcoin’s broader market structure remains firmly bullish, with momentum still favoring further upside. 

Analyst Predicts $140,000 – $160,000 Bitcoin Cycle Top

Moving forward, Luca’s chart reveals technical factors that align with his bullish thesis. Based on key Fibonacci Extension levels, the analyst projects that BTC’s next cycle top falls between $140,000 and $160,000, a target he believes could be attained toward the end of Q3. 

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While acknowledging that the exact target could shift depending on how technical confluences evolve, the expectation remains that a Bitcoin rally is imminent. With BTC now trading around $107,423 after rebounding from a previous dip below $100,000, a potential move to $140,000 or even $160,000 would mark a substantial gain of approximately 30.35% and 48.97%, respectively. 

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

After a lackluster 2024, Ethereum has started 2025 with a bang, surging over 13% since the year began. This impressive performance has reignited optimism among investors who are anticipating a bullish year for ETH and the broader altcoin market. Ethereum’s early strength has raised the critical question: Can it outperform Bitcoin in this post-halving year?

Top analyst Daan recently shared insightful data highlighting ETH’s early lead over BTC, driven by positive sentiment and historical patterns of strong seasonality. In his analysis, Daan pointed out that ETH often performs well during the first quarter, particularly in post-halving years, setting the stage for a potential altseason. This historical trend has many investors eyeing ETH as a promising contender for market dominance in 2025.

While Bitcoin remains the market leader, Ethereum’s early momentum could pave the way for it to challenge BTC’s dominance this year. The combination of favorable market conditions, improving sentiment, and Ethereum’s strong start suggests that the altcoin leader is ready to reclaim its position as a top-performing asset. As the market gears up for what could be a historic year, all eyes are on ETH to see if it can maintain its momentum and outshine Bitcoin.

Ethereum Shows Strength But Faces Key Challenges 

Ethereum has entered the new year on a bullish note, sparking optimism among analysts and investors alike. However, for ETH to confirm a sustained uptrend, it must reclaim and hold last year’s highs. The early signs are promising, with ETH showing a 13% gain since the start of the year. Post-halving years are historically favorable for altcoins, and 2025 appears to be following the trend.

Top analyst Daan shared insightful data on X, highlighting Ethereum’s strong start compared to Bitcoin. He noted that ETH is taking an early lead against BTC, supported by positive sentiment and strong seasonality patterns. Historically, ETH has performed well in the first quarter of post-halving years, setting the stage for a potential altseason. This historical context gives investors confidence that Ethereum could outperform in the months ahead.

Daan emphasized that while Ethereum is gaining momentum, the race between ETH and BTC will be one to watch closely. He believes both assets will emerge as winners this year, each offering unique opportunities for growth. For ETH, reclaiming key levels and maintaining its early momentum is critical to ensuring it lives up to these high expectations.

The coming weeks will be crucial as ETH seeks to capitalize on its early lead. With market conditions appearing favorable and a history of strong first-quarter performance, Ethereum is positioned for a potentially groundbreaking 2025. However, it will need to navigate market challenges and prove its resilience to sustain the bullish outlook.

ETH Tests Key Support 

Ethereum is currently trading at $3,636, testing the critical 4-hour 200 moving average as support. This level is crucial for determining the next phase of ETH’s price action. If the price holds above this moving average in the coming hours, it could signal a strong foundation for a rebound toward higher supply zones, setting the stage for further bullish momentum.

However, a brief deviation into lower supply zones could still be a healthy move for ETH. If such a dip occurs, it is essential that the price recovers quickly—ideally within a few days—to maintain the bullish outlook. A sustained decline could introduce uncertainty and test investor confidence in Ethereum’s upward trajectory.

For the bullish trend to remain intact, ETH must hold firmly above the $3,500 level. This mark serves as a critical support zone, and losing it would risk deeper corrections. On the other hand, reclaiming the $3,900 level is equally important, as it would reinforce the bullish structure and open the door to a larger rally.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

• The last Bitcoin halving took place in April when the block reward dropped from 6.25 Bitcoin to 3.125 Bitcoin
• Jesse Myers said Bitcoin’s price needs to go higher for a “supply-demand price” balance to happen
• When that occurs, the market will “flywheel into mania and a bubble,” which happened in the 2012, 2016, and 2020 Bitcoin halving events

Donald Trump’s re-election into the White House isn’t “the main story” for Bitcoin’s recent price rally, says Onramp Bitcoin’s co-founder.

In a post on X, Jesse Myers said the main reason is that the market is at the “6+ months post-halving” mark.

Taking place every four years, the last Bitcoin halving occurred in April when the block reward dropped from 6.25 Bitcoin to 3.125. As a result, each new block becomes harder to solve with a lower reward.

A reduction in Bitcoin supply typically means an increase in the price of Bitcoin. The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur sometime in 2028.

According to Myers, a “supply shock has accumulated,” meaning “there’s not enough supply available at current prices to satisfy demand,” adding that a “supply-demand price equilibrium must be restored.”

However, the only way Myers believes this will happen “is for the price to go higher, which will flywheel into mania and a bubble, but that’s how this thing works.”

Post-halving bubbles

Supplying a chart, Myers indicated that the market is currently at the start of the post-halving bubble. Based on his data, Bitcoin’s price will continue its upward trajectory before peaking to new highs and dropping to current levels.

“It sounds crazy to say there will be a reliable, predictable bubble every 4 years,” said Myers. “But then, there’s never been an asset in the world where new supply creation is halved every 4 years.”

Post-halving bubbles happened in the 2012, 2016, and 2020 Bitcoin halvings, said Myers.

The recent Bitcoin price rally comes amid Trump’s re-election into the White House. Based on his campaign trail in the lead-up to election day, Trump came across as pro-crypto compared to current Vice President Kamala Harris.

Last week, Senator Cynthia Lummis also reaffirmed plans that the US is going to build a strategic Bitcoin reserve. If passed, the senator’s Bitcoin Act would propose directing the US Treasury to buy one million over the next five years.

Bitcoin (BTC) price is inching closer to reclaiming its post-halving reaccumulation range, setting the market abuzz with anticipation. Amid critical weekly close, traders and investors are keenly watching the $60,600 level. As of now, BTC price is slightly above this threshold at $60,700.

Stock Market Rally To Fuel Bitcoin Price Surge

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital expects BTC to enter the post-Halving reaccumulation phase if it closes above $60,600 this week. Bitcoin price is currently well above $60,600. However, since there are six days left for the week to end, the uncertainty remains.

Nonetheless, one of the significant factors catalyzing Bitcoin’s upward momentum is the ongoing stock market rally. According to QCP Capital’s analysis released today, momentum traders and trend-followers are re-leveraging their positions.

This activity has been amplified by August’s lower liquidity, which typically sees reduced trading volumes as major financial institutions and traders take summer vacations. Adding fuel to this rally, corporate share buybacks have surged. Companies buying back a staggering $1.15 trillion worth of shares this year.

This trend has been particularly pronounced among clients of Goldman Sachs’ trading unit. It has reported record demand for buying dips in the market. Hence, QCP Capital noted this surge in share buybacks reflects corporate confidence and could have a spillover effect on other risk assets, including Bitcoin.

The risk-on sentiment evident in the equities market could extend to cryptocurrencies and precious metals like gold. Bitcoin, in particular, stands to benefit from this environment as demand for topside call options on BTC increases. This growing interest in bullish options suggests that traders are betting on further Bitcoin price appreciation.

U.S. Election Dynamics

However, the upcoming U.S. 2024 elections remain a critical focal point for market participants. QCP Capital notes a skew in Bitcoin options favoring puts ahead of the election, indicating some caution among traders. There is a significant six-point volatility spread between pre and post-election expiries. This reflects uncertainty about the election’s outcome and its potential impact on Bitcoin price.

Meanwhile, Democrats are losing the crypto community’s support as the Democratic platform shunned crypto. Whilst, the Republicans have pledged to end what they describe as an “unlawful and un-American crypto crackdown.”

Zach Pandl, Grayscale Investments’ Managing Director of Research, recently expressed a bullish outlook on Bitcoin’s near-term prospects. In a recent interview, Pandl suggested that BTC is poised to rally, regardless of the outcome of the upcoming U.S. election. Furthermore, the Grayscale exec emphasized Bitcoin’s long-term potential, particularly as a hedge against looming depreciation of the U.S. dollar.

Short Liquidations & ETF Flows Impact On BTC Price

Another key factor contributing to recent Bitcoin price movements is the liquidation of short positions. According to data from Coinglass, Bitcoin short liquidations totaled $25.90 million, significantly outpacing the $5.23 million in long liquidations.

When short positions are liquidated, traders are forced to buy back Bitcoin to minimize their losses, which can drive the price higher. In addition to short liquidations, spot Bitcoin ETF flows have been positive, further supporting the price recovery.

On Monday, August 19, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $62.1 million. This surge has likely played a role in Bitcoin’s recovery from $58,000 to its current level of $60,900. BlackRock led the charge with $92.7 million in inflows, followed by Fidelity with $3.9 million.

However, not all funds experienced positive flows; Bitwise recorded outflows of $25.7 million, and Invesco saw $8.8 million in outflows. Nevertheless, institutions, including Morgan Stanley showed increased confidence in Bitcoin.

Currently, 60% of the top 25 hedge funds in the U.S., including Citadel Investment Group and Millennium Management, expanded their BTC exposure to. These hedge funds have increased their holdings of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the second quarter of FY24.

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Kritika Mehta

Kritika boasts over 2 years of experience in the financial news sector. Currently working as a crypto journalist at Coingape, she has consistently shown a knack for blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies. Kritika combines insightful analysis with a deep understanding of market trends. With a keen interest in technical analysis, she brings a nuanced perspective to her reporting, exploring the intersection of finance, technology, and emerging trends in the crypto space.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.