XRP’s legal victory over the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has removed a major regulatory hurdle, sparking optimism for institutional adoption and even a potential spot XRP ETF.

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Daily trading volumes soared 208% to $12.4 billion after the settlement, with analysts estimating a 95% chance of ETF approval by October 2025.

However, price action suggests the euphoria may be cooling. In the 24 hours ending August 12, XRP slipped 4% from $3.19 to $3.13, despite hitting an intraday peak of $3.32.

Heavy selling during the 19:00 hour, totaling 73.87 million in volume, indicates large holders are locking in profits. While support has held at $3.12, resistance remains firm at $3.27–$3.32.

Bearish Fractal Signals Potential 45% Drop

Technical analysts are eyeing a concerning development on XRP’s two-week chart: a bearish divergence where price makes higher highs but the relative strength index (RSI) prints lower highs. This setup mirrors conditions from the 2017–2018 market peak, which preceded a brutal multi-month selloff.

If the pattern repeats, XRP could slide toward its 50-period exponential moving average near $1.64, roughly 45% below current prices, before finding meaningful support. Interim demand may emerge around $1.90–$2.00, but the bearish fractal suggests momentum is fading.

Such a correction wouldn’t necessarily end the broader bull market but could shake out overleveraged traders, reset sentiment, and set the stage for a more sustainable uptrend later.

XRP's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: XRPUSD on Tradingview 

Can Bulls Invalidate the Bearish XRP Setup?

Bulls see a different path. XRP is testing the $3.55 resistance level, which capped the 2018 rally, and has broken out of a multi-year symmetrical triangle.

Clearing $3.55 with strong volume could open the door to $4.41 and potentially $5.68, especially if U.S. regulators approve an XRP ETF and whales shift from distribution to accumulation.

Ripple’s focus on long-term infrastructure, CBDC partnerships, and real-world asset tokenization could underpin fundamental demand even if short-term price action turns choppy.

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Still, macroeconomic uncertainty, whale selling patterns, and technical resistance remain hurdles that traders must watch closely. For now, XRP sits at a crossroads, either confirming the ominous fractal for a steep drop or breaking through resistance to extend the post-SEC rally.

Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD chart from Tradingview

Earlier in August, the XRP community got some positive news when the court ruled that Ripple Labs should pay a $125 million fine to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for selling unregistered securities. However, the regulator has been unhappy with this decision, leading to an appeal of the court’s decision. Naturally, the appeal has pushed back the finish line for the 4-year battle, but the end could still be very bullish for the XRP price.

The XRP Crash Before The Surge

While the SEC and Ripple continue to battle it out in court, a pseudonymous crypto analyst on the TradingView website who goes by the name AnalysisParalysis has shared their expectation for the XRP price. In this case, the crypto analyst expects that the altcoin’s price will rally. But not without first suffering a decline due to the SEC appeal.

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According to the analyst, the SEC appeal is expected to come sometime before October 6, 2024, during which time they expect the XRP price to struggle. “I believe this will be the catalyst this time around that causes XRP to crash just before its going to go on a massive upward movement,” the analyst said.

The initial crash here is expected to cross 30%, pushing the price as low as $0.33. However, after this, fireworks are expected to follow as the XRP price begins its uptrend. From here, the altcoin is expected to clear the $1 easily, moving toward new all-time highs in the process.

As for how high the XRP price could go, the crypto analyst believes that it could rise as high as $8.80. If this happens, it would mean a 2,566% increase from the $0.33 lows expected after the price crash. The analyst speculates that the timeframe for the altcoin’s price to touch this new all-time high is sometime in summer 2025. So, somewhere between June and September 2025.

The State Of The Ripple Vs. SEC Lawsuit

Currently, the battle between Ripple and the SEC rages on as the regulator has appealed the court’s decision that secondary programmatic sales of XRP tokens do not count as a securities offering. The outcome of the appeal is still heavily debated but securities lawyer Marc Fagel has offered various possibilities.

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On an X (formerly Twitter) post, Fagel stated;

“The Court of Appeals could conclude the district court erred in stating that XRP is not itself a security; and if it is, then the holding on programmatic sales gets reversed. But they could also reverse the programmatic sales without addressing the question of XRP being a security per se (as seems more likely).”

However, way the appeal does play out, the consensus remains that a final end to the battle between the crypto firm and the regulator would be good for the XRP price. Projections following the outcome have ranged from a price tag of $1 to as high as $100.

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com