In a move that dashed high-flying expectations, US President Donald J. Trump ended his first day in office without issuing any crypto-related executive orders or referencing the much-touted Strategic Bitcoin Reserve he had teased during the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville. Bitcoin’s price, which had surged to nearly $110,000 on hopes of a landmark announcement, retreated swiftly once it became clear the inauguration address would offer no explicit nod to digital assets.
What Next For The Bitcoin Price?
Now, with BTC hovering in what analysts describe as no-man’s land, the market looks to the White House for any indication that Trump’s earlier pro-Bitcoin rhetoric might translate into action. Crypto analyst CRG (@MacroCRG) encapsulated the uneasy sentiment on X , claiming that “crypto feeling a bit directionless” could quickly change if Trump simply mentions Bitcoin.
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CRG argued, “but all its gonna take is 1 mention from Trump and it sends IMO. Trump’s team bought 9 figs of crypto yday, won’t be long until they start blasting hopium.”
Some observers maintain that Bitcoin’s overarching technical indicators remain favorable. Markus Thielen, a researcher at Matrixport, commented on X that “since mid-November, Bitcoin has been trading within a narrowing wedge,” stifled by conflicting signals—ranging from higher inflation data to hopes of a supportive White House.
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According to Thielen, Trump’s inauguration served as a catalyst for Bitcoin to break out of that wedge, but whether this breakout can hold depends on BTC maintaining support around the upper boundary. “Bitcoin is now retesting the breakout level, which corresponds to the upper boundary of the wedge. If Bitcoin holds above this key support, the short-term outlook remains highly bullish, with the breakout signaling renewed upward momentum,” Thielen writes.
Renowned analyst Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) pointed out on X that Bitcoin managed to retest key levels, notably at $101,000. While the market saw a harsh rejection from its range high, Rekt Capital emphasizes that this retest of both the “red diagonal” and the “black Range Low” is a strong sign that BTC might consolidate in the $101,000-$106,000 corridor before potentially marching higher again.
Meanwhile, trader Crypto Chase (@Crypto_Chase) hinted at a willingness to go long if Bitcoin dips to around $99,500. He noted: “I’d take a long from 99.5K~ if offered. I think gray box needs to hold for local bullishness and sweeping all the Trump leadup / news PA makes sense. I’d also accept a sweep of the 97K low, but that’s farthest it should go. Any good amount of time spent past 96-97K and my plan / read is likely off. Inval low 90’s, aiming for new ATH’s. 3R~ trade.”
Despite Wednesday’s disappointment, many believe the president’s pro-Bitcoin stance remains intact. David Bailey, CEO of BTC Inc. and a key figure in Trump’s shift toward a more Bitcoin and crypto-friendly position, took to X today, revealing: “Got confirmation tonight that our EOs are among the first 200. I have no idea what made it in, but good news cometh.” Bailey also stated these include “EOs related to Bitcoin or crypto,” leaving open the possibility of a sudden policy bombshell.
Should such an order materialize, markets could quickly pivot back into bullish territory. For now, however, traders and investors remain in limbo, awaiting that elusive official statement or executive order—from the White House that might reignite Bitcoin’s momentum.
At press time, BTC traded at $103,182.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The 2024 US presidential election is decided. Donald Trump will get a second term, defeating Kamala Harris. In the midst of election night, the Bitcoin price rose to a new all-time high of $75,407 on Binance.
The euphoria is driven by Trump’s big election promises. He wants to establish Bitcoin as a national strategic stockpile, fire Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler and generally enforce a crypto-friendly policy. While a Harris victory would have meant a short-term setback for Bitcoin according to most experts, the predictions by the majority of experts are extremely bullish thanks to the Trump victory.
However, renowned economist Henrik Zeberg offers a cautionary perspective. Zeberg warns that Trump’s proposed economic policies could precipitate a US recession, leading to a “blow-off top” scenario for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Central to his argument is Trump’s plan to replace certain taxes with tariffs to stimulate domestic economic growth.
Is A Bitcoin Blow-Off Top Scenario Looming?
Drawing parallels with historical events, Zeberg suggests that Trump’s tariff strategy could echo the economic missteps of the 1920s and 1930s. In a post on X, he shared a link to the Wikipedia page for the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. He stated: “Now everything is lined up for history to repeat itself. US Tariffs implemented into a Recession—reinforcing the downturn and popping the Greatest Bubble ever.”
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The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act is widely regarded as a catalyst that deepened the Great Depression. By substantially increasing US tariffs on imported goods, the act prompted retaliatory tariffs from other nations, leading to a severe contraction in international trade. This protectionist spiral exacerbated global economic decline, resulting in heightened unemployment and prolonged hardship worldwide.
Amid these economic concerns, Zeberg has projected a significant, yet potentially short-lived, surge in Bitcoin’s price. “Making it Simple! BTC target 115-123K,” he asserted via X a few days ago. His analysis is grounded in Fibonacci extension levels—a technical analysis tool used to predict future price movements based on historical price patterns.
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According to Zeberg’s analysis, the critical level to monitor is the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, calculated at $114,916.16. He suggests that this level is “very likely the top,” indicating that Bitcoin could reach this price point before experiencing a significant reversal.
The analysis also notes other key Fibonacci levels that may serve as resistance points during Bitcoin’s ascent. The 0.382 level at $77,437.88 marks a significant initial resistance following the breakout from the previous all-time high.
The 0.618 level at $85,205.47 could act as minor resistance as the price climbs. Additionally, the 1.0 level at $107,435.71 represents a crucial psychological and technical threshold, while the 1.27 level at $123,148.19 indicates a possible overshoot beyond the primary target zone.
An annotation on Zeberg’s chart poses the question, “58% in less than 3 months into the top?” This suggests he anticipates a rapid price increase within a relatively short time frame, consistent with historical patterns.
At press time, BTC traded at $73,742.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com