Wall Street’s appetite for companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets is cooling, and investors are starting to show it, according to the New York Digital Investment Group.
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Greg Cipolaro, the firm’s global head of research, said the disparity between share prices and net asset value (NAV) for major buyers is narrowing even as Bitcoin reached highs earlier this year.
He pointed to several forces pushing those premiums down, from looming supply unlocks to increased share issuance.
Premiums On The Slide
Investor worry over future token unlocks is weighing on prices. Cipolaro listed other drivers: shifting corporate aims among digital-asset treasuries, fresh share sales, investor profit-taking, and a lack of clear differences between companies that simply hold Bitcoin.
Companies often used as proxies for Bitcoin gains — names like Metaplanet and Strategy — have seen that gap compress. In plain terms, stocks that once traded at a healthy premium to the coins they own are now much closer to their NAVs.
Buying Activity Slows Sharply
Reports have disclosed that the combined holdings of publicly disclosed Bitcoin-buying companies peaked at 840,000 BTC this year.
Strategy accounts for a third of that total, or about 637,000 BTC, while the rest is spread across 30 other entities.
Data shows a clear slowdown in purchase size. Strategy’s average buy in August fell to 1,200 BTC from a 2025 peak of 14,000 BTC. Other companies bought 86% less than their March 2025 high of 2,400 BTC per transaction.
Monthly growth has cooled too: Strategy’s monthly increase slid to 5% last month from 40% at the end of 2024, and other firms went from 160% in March to 7% in August.
Share Prices And Fundraising Values Are Coming Under Pressure
A number of treasury companies are trading at or below the prices of recent fundraises. That gap creates risk. If newly issued shares begin trading freely and owners decide to cash out, a wave of selling could follow.
Cipolaro warned a rough patch may be ahead and advised companies to consider measures that support their share price.
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Stocks May Face A Bumpy Ride
One straightforward move suggested was stock buybacks. According to Cipolaro, crypto focused companies should set aside some capital raised to buy back shares if needed. That approach can lift prices by shrinking the number of outstanding shares.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin itself has not been immune to swings. Based on CoinMarketCap quotes, BTC was trading around $111,550, down about 7% from a mid-August peak above $124,000.
The price move tightens the margin for error for treasury firms: their fortunes are linked to the coin, but their stock prices can move independently and sometimes more harshly.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
As the deadline for SEC action on Bitcoin ETF applications approaches, Reggie Browne, GTS’s Head of ETF Trading, predicts a potential premium of 8% above Net Asset Value (NAV) for a Spot Bitcoin ETF. Meanwhile, Browne emphasizes the complexity arising from U.S. broker-dealers unable to trade Bitcoin directly, potentially causing trading hurdles.
However, despite expectations of liquidity maintaining competitive spreads, Browne anticipates challenges in keeping ETF prices aligned with underlying Bitcoin values.
Premiums On Spot Bitcoin ETFs
As the deadline approaches for the SEC to make crucial decisions on Spot Bitcoin ETF applications, industry expert Reggie Browne, head of ETF trading at GTS, provides a glimpse into the potential challenges investors may face. Browne predicts that if approved, these ETFs could trade at an 8% premium above Net Asset Value (NAV), driven by the regulatory limitations imposed on U.S. broker-dealers trading spot Bitcoin, Bloomberg reported.
Meanwhile, one key hurdle is the SEC’s reluctance to permit direct spot Bitcoin trading by broker-dealers, forcing them to rely on Bitcoin futures for hedging. This added layer of complexity raises concerns about maintaining the ETF’s price alignment with underlying Bitcoin prices, potentially resulting in a substantial premium to NAV.
In addition, Browne acknowledges the industry’s excitement but emphasizes the intricacies involved, stating, “While we’re going to celebrate today, I think the morning after will come with all the details.” He anticipates that investors may inject a significant $2 billion into Spot Bitcoin ETFs within the first 30 days of trading, with a projected total inflow of $10 billion to $20 billion for the year.
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What’s Next?
Despite the potential premium challenges, Browne assures that there’s enough liquidity in the market to keep the spread competitive and tight. In addition, the market-making community is poised to offer substantial liquidity, mitigating concerns about spread width, he added.
Meanwhile, as the crypto community awaits the SEC’s decision, the spotlight remains on industry giants like Ark Invest, BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, WisdomTree, Franklin Templeton, and Valkyrie, all vying for approval. Notably, the immense market potential is underscored by Grayscale Investments’ flagship GBTC fund, which, on a single day, traded nearly half a billion dollars—highlighting the substantial market impact these Spot Bitcoin ETFs could unleash.
Also Read: US CFTC Releases Report on DeFi Citing Regulatory Concerns
The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Bitcoin futures premiums have been consistently trending in the low for some time now. There have been instances where they have broken out of this trend of low performance, but they seem to fall right back in. This does not spell all bad news for the futures premiums as it hints at exhaustion coming. This is attributed to the premiums trading close to yearly lows indicating that it is nearly a point of exhaustion across the board.
Bitcoin Futures Premiums Down
The reason behind the bitcoin futures premiums being down can be attributed to sell-offs that have rocked the digital asset in recent times. Not only have the sell-offs been apparent in investors who are directly exposed to the cryptocurrency but those who have exposure through traditional markets vehicles like ETFs have been selling off too. The most prominent of these have been the high outflows recorded from the ProShares BITO ETF, which is said to be one of the major drivers behind the low basis.
BTC futures premium down | Source: Arcane Research
Across crypto exchanges FTX and Binance, the bitcoin three-month basis has been trending around 25 to 3%, one of the lowest ever recorded. The last time the basis had touched this low had been in February when bitcoin’s price had been struggling. The value of the digital asset had promptly recovered following a short squeeze that fueled a $6,000 recovery for the cryptocurrency, seeing it touch a peak of $44,000.
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However, after this has come more low momentum on the futures premium basis front. It is now trading even lower than it did in February, lagging behind its offshore venue peers at a premium of 1.34%. This is seen as a direct indicator of how investors are feeling toward the digital asset. Since Bitcoin had lost its footing above $40,000, sentiment has turned generally bearish and this has translated to muted futures premiums at rarely seen low levels.
BTC trading north of $41,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
A light at the end of the tunnel looks to be coming up though given the history of performance that has followed low futures premiums such as this. They are historically known to be short-lived, usually followed by a surge in the price of the digital asset, as was recorded in late February.
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If this is the case and bitcoin follows historical patterns, then another $6,000 rally would put the digital asset at the $47,000 mark. And if sell-off exhaustion does kick in, sentiment could quickly turn back into the positive, leading to more surge in the price of the cryptocurrency.
Featured image from MARCA, chart from TradingView.com
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