Bitcoin has now spent four consecutive months under the $100,000 mark for the first time since it crossed the milestone back in 2024. This move signaled a return to the bear market, and the trend has persisted since then. Even now, sellers are more than likely still dominating the market, despite the market recovery. One crypto analyst notes an interesting trend concerning Bitcoin, suggesting that participation from smaller investors might be dying out.

Retail Investors Are Gone, And Bitcoin Could Be In Trouble

The recent Bitcoin downtrend has suggested a drying up of liquidity in the crypto market, and this is represented by the data showing a decline in participation from retail trades. In a chart shared by crypto analyst Crypto Tice, it showed that retail investment has plummeted since Bitcoin price hit its all-time high.

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The analyst highlights that transactions below $10,000 specifically have accounted for the majority of the decline. This means that retail investors, or smaller investors who are not institutions, are no longer putting money into the digital asset at the rate at which they were before.

This trend, the analyst explains, is a demand destruction and is often a predecessor of major Bitcoin bear markets in history. The trend has always been similar: first, retail leaves, and next, the volume begins dropping, and these are bear market signals.

If the analyst is right, then it means that the Bitcoin decline is far from over. As the crypto analyst explained, the data is “screaming” right now that a bear market is coming. Crypto Tice warns that this is the time to be cautious and not the time for “blind optimism”.

When Will The Bull Market Return?

Bull markets are often driven by an influx of liquidity, triggering a buying spree, and this is no different. Naturally, retail investors play a huge role in this, meaning their absence from the market often spells doom. As the analyst explains, until these retail investors return, then the Bitcoin price recoveries are likely to remain capped, meaning it has limited upside in the meantime.

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Going by the shared chart, retail investment will have to rise above 10% again in order to trigger another sustained run. In the last year, the highest level has been 30% at the start of 2025, which was a precursor to the Bitcoin price hitting multiple all-time highs. Thus, a return to this level could trigger the next major run, possibly move $100,000.

Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

With the second deadline for the US SEC’s spot Bitcoin ETF scheduled for the third week of October 2023, the onus in now on other major events like the XRP Property Party being hosted by Ripple.

Also Read: Chainlink Price Prediction As ETH Whale Makes Huge LINK Transfer

Events To Watch Out For

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler is scheduled to testify at a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee on the oversight of the agency on September 27, 2023 at 10 am eastern time. Members of the committee have a history of strongly opposing Gensler’s views especially on the crypto regulatory framework. In an April 2023 hearing, Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry asked the Commission Chair if Ethereum (ETH) was a security or a commodity.

This could yet again be the subject of debate during the upcoming hearing in the context of the XRP lawsuit ruling, which categorized the token sale to retail buyers as not securities. On September 29, 2023, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for August.

Ripple will be hosting “The Proper Party” on September 29, 2023 in New York City. It will be a community celebration of freedom from legal troubles thanks to the recent partial victory in the SEC lawsuit. While the event does not have any direct impact on the XRP demand and supply, it could potentially have an effect on trader sentiment. Also, the company may not make any big announcements in the event, it is expected.

Bitcoin Price: Upside Potential

While Bitcoin price closed last week with around 2% downside, it is likely that the latest dip is a corrective phase before recovering the upside momentum. Crypto analyst CrediBULL believes the downward path may be a bear trap before regaining upside direction. He believes the $27,000 level is there to be recovered going forward. “This latest push down looks to be manipulation to the downside prior to expansion to the upside. 27k incoming,” the analyst said.

Last week, a team of Ripple executives led by chief executive officer Brad Garlinghouse met US Congressmen in  Washington D.C. to discuss regulatory framework around crypto assets.

Also Read: Long-term Bitcoin Hodlers Now Own Over Half the Circulating Supply: Report

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Anvesh reports major crypto updates around U.S. regulation and market moving trends. Published over 1,200 articles so far on crypto and blockchain. A proud dropout of University of Massachusetts, Lowell. Can be reached at anvesh@coingape.com or twitter.com/BitcoinReddy or linkedin.com/in/anveshreddybtc/

The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.