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As the market regains bullish momentum, the Ethereum price flipped toward the upside direction, drawing closer to the $2,200 level. Looking at recent on-chain data, this positive performance is starting to reflect on the ETH network, with transactions executed on chain spiking to significant levels.

Daily Transaction Count On Ethereum Climbs

Ethereum’s price action is moving in tandem with the network performance, raising speculation whether ETH is gathering momentum underneath for a potential rally. While the price of Ethereum is currently breaking key resistance points, the network is reaching levels not seen in months.

In an X post, CW, a data analyst on CryptoQuant and investor, has published that activity on the Ethereum network is spiking at a notable pace. According to the analyst, daily transaction counts on the network are increasing exponentially, which points to a sharp rise in user engagement.

Furthermore, this surge in daily transaction count implies that more participants are interacting with decentralized applications, transfers, and on-chain services. All of these crucial factors reflect renewed demand and growing utility across the broader ecosystem, which could translate into sustained market momentum.

Although the price of ETH has fallen this year, activity across the leading network has remained at an all-time high level. At this point, CW claims that the rising daily transaction count is not a signal of a bear market. The price of Ethereum may have dropped, but some investors are displaying robust resilience under the surface, reinforcing the network growth as the trend continues.

ETH’s Price Is Moving Closer To Short-Term Realized Price

In terms of price action, Ethereum continues to trade within a short-term range, with the altcoin currently valued around $2,150. After a brief analysis, Darkfost, another author at CryptoQuant and market expert, announced that the price is in striking distance from the average realized price, which presently sits at the $2,300 level.

This level typically serves as a structural and psychological barrier that separates profit from loss for a significant portion of the market. ETH nearing this level signals a critical inflection point. By applying a standard deviation, the model allows projecting a high average price currently estimated at the $5,300 mark and a low at $1,150. 

Thus, Darkfost highlighted that Ethereum is positioned in the middle of this realized price zone, suggesting that the best strategy for those looking to take a medium to long-term exposure is to wait out the market. Given the current market conditions, this strategy proves to be valid. In this market structure, the realized price, which acts as resistance, is also expected to serve as a break-even exit level for some investors.

At the time of writing, the price of ETH was trading at $2,117, declining by over 2% over the last 24 hours. Its trading volume is moving in alignment with price action, recording a more than 7% decrease over the past day.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoin price started a decent increase above $92,000. BTC is now consolidating gains and might aim for another increase if it clears $93,400.

• Bitcoin started a downside correction from the $94,500 zone.
• The price is trading above $92,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
• There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $91,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair might continue to move up if it settles above the $93,400 zone.

Bitcoin Price Holds Support

Bitcoin price managed to stay above the $91,000 zone and started a fresh increase. BTC gained strength for a move above the $92,500 and $94,000 levels.

However, the bears were active near $94,500. A high was formed at $94,583 and the price recently corrected some gains. There was a drop toward the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $89,545 swing low to the $94,583 high.

However, the bulls were active near the $92,000 support. Bitcoin is now trading below $92,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a bullish trend line forming with support at $91,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

If the bulls remain in action, the price could attempt another increase. Immediate resistance is near the $92,800 level. The first key resistance is near the $93,200 level. The next resistance could be $94,000. A close above the $94,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $94,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $95,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $96,200 and $96,500.

More Losses In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $94,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $92,000 level. The first major support is near the $91,500 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $89,545 swing low to the $94,583 high.

The next support is now near the $90,750 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $90,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $88,800, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $92,000, followed by $91,500.

Major Resistance Levels – $93,200 and $94,000.

A sudden drop in XRP balances across major crypto exchanges has led to speculations about how this might affect the cryptocurrency’s price action. The movement was highlighted by analyst Vincent Van Code, who explained that the transfers are not simply a sign of long-term holders scooping up supply. 

Instead, he pointed to the expanding influence of newly launched Spot XRP ETFs, which are now absorbing a significant share of market activity that once took place on retail platforms.

ETF Demand Is Pulling Liquidity Away From Exchanges

Van Code noted that billions of XRP leaving Binance, Upbit, and Kraken are largely flowing into ETF custodial wallets. This changes the way the market reacts to buying and selling pressure because retail exchanges now operate with thinner liquidity. When daily trading volume on those platforms averaged around the multi-billion-dollar range, it required very large orders to create noticeable price movement. 

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Now that volume has contracted, even moderate-sized trades can produce sharp intraday swings. The effect is a market environment that is fundamentally supported by ETF buying, yet increasingly sensitive to smaller sell-offs or sudden bids.

Even as exchange liquidity drops, Van Code noted that high-frequency trading firms are preventing price dislocations. These groups have already mastered the arbitrage models used in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, and they have now adapted the same systems for XRP. 

Whenever the ETF price drifts above or below its underlying value, the bots immediately correct the gap, keeping both markets tightly aligned. This mechanism makes sure that XRP still gets purchased during ETF creation events and provides a layer of structural stability, even though retail charts may begin to show more frequent spikes and dips.

What This Means For XRP’s Approach To New Price Highs

In Van Code’s view, the long-term picture for XRP is strengthened by this shift, even though the short-term experience for traders may become more uncomfortable. When XRP enjoyed daily spot volumes in the range of $2 billion to $3 billion on exchanges, you would typically need more than $200 million in concentrated buying or selling to push the price 5% to 10% in either direction. 

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Now that on-exchange volume has dropped toward levels below $1 billion a day, the equation looks very different. A sell order or resistance wall of around $15 million can now swing XRP by roughly 12% to 18% within a single hour in these thinner conditions. However, the saving grace is these arbitrage bots. 

According to the analyst, XRP is still on track to reach $5. However, until the price adapts to reduced spot volume on exchanges, traders should be prepared for air pockets up to 20% in price, where relatively modest buy or sell flows can cause outsized moves.

Featured image from Peakpx, chart from Tradingview.com

According to the latest on-chain data, investors have been excessively betting on the Bitcoin price in recent weeks, leading to its overall struggles.

Longs Vs Shorts Imbalance — How This Induced Price Crash

In a November 22 post on social media platform X, Alphractal CEO and founder Joao Wedson revealed the underlying dynamics behind Bitcoin’s recent unchecked fall. In deciphering this downward trend, the crypto pundit evaluated the Estimated Long/Short Positions metric, which estimates how much of the Open Interest across exchanges is dedicated to long positions relative to short positions.

Wedson reported that, across 19 exchanges, there are about 71,000 BTC positioned in longs, while a relatively smaller amount of BTC (27,900) is dedicated to shorts. While this observation does not include data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the discrepancy between longs and shorts remains unusually large.

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This imbalance is significant because when there are clusters of long positions at similar price levels, the market tends to lean into a more fragile state. Moderate pullbacks beneath these clusters often lead to a cascade of forced liquidations (known as a long squeeze) — an event which could in turn push prices further south.

Notably, Wedson pointed out that traders must have been convinced that $100,000 was Bitcoin’s price bottom — a speculation that soon became null after its failure. Afterwards, $90,000 came into focus, with another series of liquidations following suit. At the moment, $84,000 seems to be the price majority of Bitcoin’s speculative traders target as the new price bottom.

These liquidation events that took place after the $100,000 and $90,000 supports were breached provided more buy-side liquidity for the Bitcoin price to topple. At the same time, most significant short positions have been closed off, making it difficult for a more defined price recovery to take place, as there is barely any sell-side liquidity to send the Bitcoin price to the upside.

For Bitcoin to recover, Wedson explained that there needs to be a significant decrease in long positioning, while short exposure goes on the rise.

Watch Out For $81,250 — Analyst

In another post on X, technical analyst Ali Martinez noted that Bitcoin’s 2-year moving average, which stands at approximately $81,250, is an important landmark for the future trajectory of the flagship cryptocurrency.

The analyst explained that historical failures of the 730-day SMA have often marked the beginnings of bear markets. Thus, in the scenario where the Bitcoin price slips past its current 2-year average price, we could be witnessing the start of a long bearish cycle

As of press time, Bitcoin holds a valuation of $86,251, reflecting an over 3% price jump in the past 24 hours.

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Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView