Ethereum (ETH) is holding firm around the $2,900 level as improving macro sentiment, renewed whale accumulation, and rising ETF inflows strengthen expectations for a short-term rebound toward $3,400.

Related Reading: Capriole Founder Not Bearish On Bitcoin Despite Headwinds—Here’s Why

With Federal Reserve rate-cut odds now above 80%, traders are positioning for a potential shift in risk appetite that could benefit major cryptocurrencies, especially ETH.

ETH's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: ETHUSD on Tradingview

Fed Pivot Hopes and Institutional Demand Bolster Ethereum

Ethereum has traded between $2,700 and $3,300 in recent weeks, but fresh catalysts are helping the asset stabilize above $2,900.

The biggest driver is macroeconomic. CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a December interest-rate cut has surged from 30% to more than 80%. Lower interest rates typically encourage investment in risk-on assets such as crypto.

Institutional flows reflect that shift. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $96.67 million in inflows on November 24, with BlackRock alone contributing $92.6 million, its first inflow in two weeks

Treasury giant BitMine continues to accumulate aggressively, adding 69,822 ETH (over $200 million) last week and bringing its total holdings to 3.63 million ETH, around 3% of the circulating supply.

At the same time, whale wallets holding 10,000–100,000 ETH amassed 440,000 ETH in one week, signaling renewed confidence despite broader market caution.

Ethereum (ETH) Poised for a Breakout Toward $3,400

Despite trading under the 20-day SMA at $3,132, Ethereum is showing early signs of bullish momentum. The MACD histogram has crossed into positive territory, and the RSI is sitting near the neutral 50 line, with room to move higher before hitting overbought levels.

Other indicators strengthen the bullish case:

• Bollinger Bands: ETH’s position near 0.32 suggests price is closer to the lower band, a common rebound zone.
• Volume: Binance 24-hour trading volume around $1.27 billion indicates enough liquidity to support a breakout.
• ATR: With daily ATR at $201.62, volatility remains elevated, favoring sharp upside moves if momentum builds.

The first major test remains $3,132. A clean breakout and two consecutive daily closes above this level would likely trigger algorithmic buying and push ETH toward the $3,400 target within 5–7 days. Beyond that, resistance at $3,658 becomes the next upside objective.

Market Risks and Short-Term Outlook

While bullish momentum is building, Ethereum still trades in a broad descending channel, and market structure remains fragile. Failure to reclaim $3,132 soon could send ETH back toward $2,750, with deeper support at $2,623 and the cycle low of $2,659.

Related Reading: The Bull And Bear Scenario For XRP That Could Play Out In November

Broader crypto weakness, negative spot flows, or delays in network upgrades could delay a breakout.

However, with rising institutional demand, whale accumulation, and rate-cut optimism, Ethereum’s probability of retesting $3,400 is steadily improving. Confidence Level medium is at Medium (65%), as ETH’s path to $3,400 remains viable but requires confirmation through key resistance levels.

Cover image from ChatGPT, ETHUSD chart from Tradingview

Opeyemi savors his attraction to the crypto market, which explains why he spends the better parts of his day looking through different price charts. “Looking” is a rather simple way to describe analyzing and interpreting various price patterns and chart formations. However, it appears that is not Opeyemi’s favorite part – in fact, far from it.

Being able to connect what happens on a price chart to on-chain movements and blockchain activities is what keeps Opeyemi ticking. “This emphasizes the intricacies of blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency market,” he would say. Most importantly, Opeyemi thinks of any market insights as the gospel, while recognizing that he is only a messenger.

When he is not clicking away at his keyboard, Opeyemi is most definitely listening to music, playing games, reading a book, or scrolling through X. He likes to think he is not loyal to a particular genre of music, which can be true on many days. However, the fast-rising Afrobeats genre is a staple in Opeyemi’s Spotify Daily Mix.

Meanwhile, Opeyemi is a voracious reader who enjoys a wide category of books – ranging from science fiction, fantasy, and historical, to even romance. He believes that authors like George R. R. Martin and J. K.
Rowling are the greatest of all time when it comes to putting pen to paper. Opeyemi believes his reading of the Harry Potter series twice is proof of that.

Indeed, Opeyemi enjoys spending most of his time within the four walls of his home. However, he also sometimes finds solace in the company of his friends at a bar, a restaurant, or even on a stroll. In essence, Opeyemi’s ambivert (haha! been searching for an opportunity to use the word to describe myself) nature makes him a social chameleon who is able to quickly adapt to different settings.

Opeyemi recognizes the need to constantly develop oneself in order to stay afloat in a competitive and ever-evolving market like crypto. For this reason, he is always in learning mode, ready to pick up the slightest lesson from every situation. Opeyemi is efficient and likes to deliver all that is required of him in time – he believes that “whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well.” Hence, you will always find him striving to be better.

Ultimately, Opeyemi is a good writer and an even better person who is trying to shed light on an exciting world phenomenon – cryptocurrency. He goes to bed every day with a smile of satisfaction on his face, knowing that he has done his bit of the holy assignment – spreading the crypto gospel to the rest of the world.

The most anticipated U.S. employment data this week showed that 272,000 jobs have been added in May, more than the market expectations. Meanwhile, the market was eagerly waiting for the jobs data for potential cues on the current health of the labor market. Notably, these sets of data plays are closely watched by the investors to understand the current economic health and decide on the policy rate prospects.

A Look Into The U.S. Jobs Data

According to Bureau Of Labor Statistics data, the U.S. added 272,000 jobs in May, after adding 175,000 jobs in the prior month. Notably, the unemployment rate soared to 4% from the prior month and was up from the market expectations of 3.9%.

On the other hand, U.S. hourly wages increased by 0.4% in May, after soaring 0.2% in the prior month. Notably, the investors were eagerly waiting for these job data for cues on potential interest rate cut decisions by the Federal Reserve.

Meanwhile, market experts have said that unexpectedly robust non-farm job data could have dampened the hopes of the Fed taking a dovish stance with their rate cut plans. Now, with the non-farm job data noting a strong increase might dampen the market sentiment. However, the higher unemployment data paints a contrasting picture to it.

Usually, the higher unemployment rate along with a lower non-farm payroll data tends to boost the market sentiment.

Also Read: Bank of Canada Slashes Interest Rate: Implications For Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Will Bitcoin Reach A New High?

The U.S. Job data paints a mixed picture with both the unemployment rate and non-farm employment increasing in May. Now, looking at the recent performance of the crypto market, it appears that the latest job data has weighed on the traders’ sentiment.

With the latest ECB’s decision to cut interest rates, the anticipation has soared over a similar step by the U.S. Federal Reserve. But, with the latest U.S. job report, the sentiment appears to have changed.

Now, the market will keep a close watch on the next week’s key inflation data including the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). In addition, one of the most crucial events next week, the FOMC interest-rate decision, will play an important role in shaping the market sentiment.

Following the job data, the U.S. 10-year Bond Yield rose 3.32% to 4.421, while the U.S. Dollar Index jumped 0.56% to $104.630. However, the latest report by the Labor Department has caused a slump in Bitcoin price from a 24-hour high of about $72,000 to $70,875.25 in just a few minutes. The recent slump in the BTC price showed that how the latest data has weighed on the risk-bet appetite of the investors.

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Rupam, a seasoned professional with 3 years in the financial market, has honed his skills as a meticulous research analyst and insightful journalist. He finds joy in exploring the dynamic nuances of the financial landscape. Currently working as a sub-editor at Coingape, Rupam’s expertise goes beyond conventional boundaries. His contributions encompass breaking stories, delving into AI-related developments, providing real-time crypto market updates, and presenting insightful economic news. Rupam’s journey is marked by a passion for unraveling the intricacies of finance and delivering impactful stories that resonate with a diverse audience.

The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.