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The Bitcoin price continues to dance within the newly formed $80,000 – $85,000 range, showing some level of indecisiveness in its movement. Since the premier cryptocurrency lost its hold above $90,000, investors have wondered whether the ongoing correction is a “buy the dip” opportunity or the market top is in.
While there is no surefire way to put these doubts away, on-chain data can provide relevant insights into what is to come. The latest on-chain data suggests the highlighted level below is the one to watch before investors return to the market.
Level To Watch Before ‘Buying The Dip’
In a recent post on the X platform, crypto analyst Maartunn shared that it might not be technically secure to reenter the Bitcoin market at the current price. This analysis is based on the movement of the Bitcoin price relative to the current value of the short-term holders’ (STH) average cost basis.
The STH average cost basis metric estimates the average price at which short-term holders (investors who have owned Bitcoin for less than 155 days) acquired their coins. It represents a psychological level for BTC investors and could act as a reference point for price analysis, especially during bull cycles.
Bitcoin usually trades above the short-term holders’ average cost basis during bull markets, signaling substantial buying pressure and optimistic sentiment from short-term investors. On the flip side, when the price of BTC falls beneath this cost basis — as seen in the ongoing correction, it implies that short-term investors are at a loss, which could lead to a sell-off and precipitate significant bearish pressure.
According to data from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin price is currently 6% below the short-term holders’ average cost basis at $90,950. With the flagship cryptocurrency beneath the realized price of short-term holders, the odds are that BTC price could face further selling pressure as the investor cohort looks to minimize their loss.
Using this logic, Maartunn noted that investors might want to wait till the price of Bitcoin climbs above the STH average cost price before reentering the market. Interestingly, the short-term investors appear to still be loading their bags. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed in a post on X that short-term holders have purchased more than 35,000 BTC in the past 4 days.
Bitcoin Price At A Glance
As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just below the $86,000 mark, reflecting an over 2% jump in the past 24 hours.
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- Bitcoin and the S&P 500 move in a tight correlation
- The 2023 price action is relevant for understanding the direct correlation
- If stocks bounce, Bitcoin should follow
For many years cryptocurrency investors wished Bitcoin to be adopted by institutional investors. Eventually, their wish came true.
Bitcoin is now part of many institutional portfolios, for various reasons. Some believe that it is the digital gold. Others say that it has huge upside potential due to its scarcity.
No matter the reason, Bitcoin is now part of the institutional investing world. But it came at a price. Namely, Bitcoin became just another asset trading in correlation with regular markets, such as the S&P 500.
Even the 2023 rally does not alter the relationship, as seen in the chart below.
If US stocks bounce from here, Bitcoin should rally some more
Yesterday, Bitcoin tried its hand again at the $30k level. Stocks tanked.
But even so, the correlation between the two remains. Therefore, the price action since 2022 is relevant.
In April 2020, the two delivered similar performances. Yet, the scandals in the cryptocurrency industry have sent Bitcoin lower.
However, every bounce happened just when stocks bounced. The most recent price action is relevant, as Bitcoin matched both advances and declines in the stock market. Just the amplitude of the moves was different, just as it was when Bitcoin’s price was in bearish territory.
All in all, it is hard to believe that this correlation will go away anytime soon. Also, it is unlikely that Bitcoin would not rally some more, should stocks bounce from here.
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been recently pushed aside by Polkadot (DOT) from the top cryptocurrencies list as it is now the 11th biggest crypto in terms of market cap. DOGE’s market value is currently at $9.28 billion after it sadly had to let go of its position which is now held by Polkadot with a market value of $9.62 billion.
According to CoinMarketCap, the DOGE price is 1.09% down or at 0.06899 as of this writing.
DOGE price remained the same despite the positive sentiment in the crypto space spiked by the support of Elon Musk, among other things. Michi Lumin, Developer of Dogecoin, has recently announced the release of a C library of DOGE building blocks coined as Libdogecoin. This library allows Dogecoin to integrate into different platforms.
Elon Musk Says DOGE Has Real Value
In one of his appearances on the podcast “Full Send”, Elon Musk, billionaire entrepreneur and CEO of Tesla, once again pressed on with his unrelenting support for DOGE. “I’m mainly supporting Doge, frankly,” Musk said.
Musk reiterated that Dogecoin isn’t just a dog meme coin; it is not a joke because it has real utility value. He also said that in comparison to Bitcoin, DOGE has a much bigger transaction volume. Since early August, the price of DOGE hasn’t moved significantly because it’s been hindered by $0.075. The crypto market seems to be in a coma as it is being bombed by a lot of macroeconomic problems.
But, as other meme projects have no utility value and the token prices are mostly impacted by social media or a popularity vote from influencers and other celebrities, investors aren’t so sure if they should invest long-term in these dog meme coins.
Dogecoin Lags Behind
DOGE is lagging behind in terms of growth. At the beginning of July, the DOGE price is at $0.066. SHIB grew by 17% but DOGE price only registered a growth of 1.4%. DOGE token market cap only increased a bit from $8.77 billion to just $9.06 billion.
On July 31, DOGE had 73,800 active addresses that grew by as much as 13% or around 105,000 addresses at one point on July 28. DOGE was able to close July with a plunge in transaction volume by 96% or 1.53 DOGE.
The social dominance of DOGE increased by 8.49% after the price racked up to $0.75. DOGE price plunged by 61% as social dominance nosedived by 3.3%. DOGE’s social volume further declined by as much as 63%. Developmental transactions within the Dogecoin network grew by 80% despite the lack of ecosystem updates.
DOGE total market cap at $9.24 billion on the daily chart | Source: TradingView.com Featured image from Zipmex, chart from TradingView.com