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Metaplanet, a Tokyo-listed Bitcoin treasury company, has raised its revenue and operating income forecasts for 2025 and issued much higher guidance for 2026, even as it flagged a large non-cash Bitcoin write-down that is set to dominate its annual results.
In a notice released on Monday, the company said its Bitcoin income generation business is expected to deliver stronger-than-expected performance, particularly in the final quarter of the year.
However, Metaplanet also projected a steep ordinary loss and net loss for 2025, driven largely by accounting adjustments tied to Bitcoin’s valuation at year-end.
The company is scheduled to file its full-year results on Feb. 16.
Metaplanet said it now expects 2025 revenue of 8.905 billion Japanese yen, or around $58 million, based on its updated guidance.
The company also raised its operating income forecast to $40 million, signalling improved performance at the operating level despite broader market volatility affecting its holdings.
Management said Q4 2025 revenue from its Bitcoin income generation business “is expected to significantly exceed initial projections,” which led it to lift full-year revenue guidance for that segment to about $55 million.
That compares with around $40 million previously announced, showing a sharp upgrade in the contribution from its Bitcoin-linked revenue stream.
Even with the stronger operating forecasts, Metaplanet expects to report a deep annual loss for 2025.
The company projected an ordinary loss of $632 million and a net loss of $491 million. These figures are largely attributed to a Bitcoin impairment loss estimated at roughly $680 million to $700 million, which is expected to be recognised in its year-end reporting.
Metaplanet explained that the impairment is a “non-cash accounting adjustment reflecting period-end price fluctuations” and said it has no direct impact on its cash flows or day-to-day operations.
The notice linked the impairment to quarter-end mark-to-market accounting treatment and referenced Bitcoin holdings valued at year-end prices, with Bitcoin shown at $87,876 in the disclosure.
Metaplanet also reported rapid growth in its Bitcoin treasury business during 2025, underlining how the company has built up its exposure to Bitcoin while developing income generation activities around its holdings.
BTC holdings rose from 1,762 BTC at the end of 2024 to 35,102 BTC at the end of 2025, showing a significant increase in the company’s balance sheet allocation.
It also reported BTC yield per diluted share of 568% for the year. The company uses this metric to measure how much Bitcoin backing each diluted share has increased, offering a per-share view of its Bitcoin accumulation.
While the impairment is expected to weigh heavily on reported net results, Metaplanet’s updated figures suggest it is still expanding its treasury position and Bitcoin-linked operations at a pace.
For 2026, Metaplanet forecast revenue of around $103 million and operating income of $73 million, representing a sharp step up from its 2025 targets.
The company said almost all of its 2026 revenue is expected to come from the Bitcoin income generation business, reinforcing the segment’s central role in its business model.
Metaplanet also projected selling, general and administrative expenses of about $29 million for 2026 as it ramps up operations.
However, it said it will not provide guidance for ordinary income or net income for 2026 due to the difficulty of forecasting Bitcoin prices, signalling that future reported earnings could remain volatile even if operating performance strengthens.
The company added that it publishes daily data on its BTC holdings, unrealised gains and losses, and related metrics, offering investors regular visibility into how price swings affect its treasury position.
Global tech giant Google has moved to integrate prediction market data from Polymarket and Kalshi directly into search results, marking a new step in the company’s AI-driven finance strategy.
Google’s November 5 press release revealed that the new AI-powered Google Finance will enable users to ask questions about future market events. The rollout begins with Labs users over the coming weeks before expanding globally.
The platform will now deliver real-time market probabilities and historical changes sourced from Polymarket and Kalshi, when users type in questions such as “What will GDP growth be for 2025?”
This feature is part of a revamp to Google Finance, which now includes Deep Search capabilities, AI-enhanced technical analysis tools, and corporate earnings tracking.
By integrating prediction markets data, Google aims to make financial insights more interactive, blending crowd-sourced probabilities with institutional-grade analytics.
The move could expose prediction markets to a wider global audience. Google handles over 8.5 billion search requests per day, according to December 2024 reports.
Since markets on the US presidential elections boosted its prominence in 2024, prediction markets have continued to gain popularity among crypto market enthusiasts and speculative traders.
Data from The Block shows that in October, Polymarket recorded an all-time high of 477,850 active users and 38,270 new markets created. The surge coincided with intense speculation on Bitcoin
BTC
$101 075
24h volatility:
2.3%
Market cap:
$2.02 T
Vol. 24h:
$63.14 B
and gold, both of which reached all-time highs above $124,500 and $4,200, respectively, during the month.
Polymarkets records all time high 477,850 active users in October 2025 | Source: TheBlock
Traders also wagered heavily on altcoin ETF approvals, which officially went live on October 28. The amplified engagement across decentralized prediction markets attracted significant institutional interest during the month.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, invested in Polymarket, valuing it at around $9 billion. Its main rival, Kalshi, also raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation, emphasizing investor appetite for regulated prediction markets.
Google’s partnership announcement comes as Polymarkets prepared to launch formal operations in the United States. In September, the platform acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, in a strategic $112 million deal that ensures compliance with US regulatory frameworks.
As the crypto market consolidates under bearish pressure this week, investors are switching focus to early stage projects like Bitcoin Hyper.
Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER) promises lightning-fast and low-cost transactions aimed at expanding Bitcoin’s use-cases for payments, meme coins, and dApps.
Bitcoin Hyper Presale
HYPER has raised over $26.1 million, with its presale price set at $0.013235 per token. Prospective investors can visit Bitcoin Hyper’s official presale website to secure early allocations before the next price tier unlocks.
Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
Ibrahim Ajibade is a seasoned research analyst with a background in supporting various Web3 startups and financial organizations. He earned his undergraduate degree in Economics and is currently studying for a Master’s in Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technologies at the University of Malta.