Bitcoin’s recent price action may be showing its first signs of relief as a closely watched indicator tied to US demand has just changed direction. The Coinbase Premium Gap has moved back into positive territory following nearly 10 weeks of persistent negative readings, a stretch that coincided with Bitcoin’s decline from around $95,000 to below $65,000 in February.

Coinbase Premium Turns Positive

The Coinbase Premium Gap, which measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase, the primary exchange for US-based institutional and retail investors, and its price on offshore platforms such as Binance, stayed in negative territory for the entirety of Bitcoin’s correction from $95,000 to the mid-$60,000 range. 

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Whenever the Coinbase Premium Gap is negative, it usually means that traders in the United States are selling Bitcoin at a faster pace than buyers are stepping in. A positive gap indicates the opposite dynamic of demand from US investors pushing Coinbase prices higher relative to the price in the global market. 

Notably, the metric entered a sustained negative zone on January 1 and held there through March 7, which is a period during which US spot demand was largely absent among crypto investors

At its worst, the gap reached -175 on February 2, coinciding with the most severe phase of Bitcoin’s price crash. At the time of writing, the Coinbase Premium Gap has now turned positive, registering a reading of +25.4 according to data shared by CryptoQuant analyst @IT_TECH_PL. The reversal of the Coinbase Premium Gap from a low of -175 to a positive reading is the first step in a meaningful change in market structure. 

Chart Image From X. Source: @IT_TECH_PL

The current reading, while still early and modest relative to the depth of the prior negative regime, is the first consistent sign that American spot demand may be returning to Bitcoin. It shows that those same participants may be slowly accumulating Bitcoin again compared to the rest of the world. However, the broader structure of Bitcoin’s price action still leaves room for further downside before the formation of a definitive bottom.

Bitcoin Could Still Drop To $50,000 Before Bottom

Although a few on-chain signals are slowly turning constructive, a few analysts are cautious before declaring the broader correction over. A technical analysis from crypto analyst Ted Pillows points to a longer-term technical indicator that has always coincided with Bitcoin bottoms.

According to his observation, the last two major bear-market lows occurred below the 300-week exponential moving average (300W EMA). In both cases, Bitcoin fell more than 15% beneath the indicator before the final bottom was established.

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @TedPillows On X

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Bitcoin’s 300-week EMA is currently around $57,100. Applying the same pattern would imply a possible move to around $50,000, which would represent a decline of roughly 15% below the indicator. Nonetheless, this projection does not guarantee that Bitcoin will revisit that level before forming a bottom.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Key takeaways

• BTC has dropped to the $114,500 region after breaking above $115k earlier.
• The coin could decline towards $113k if bullish momentum fades.

Bitcoin ETF inflow returns, but price remains stagnant

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is up less than 1% in the last 24 hours despite positive macroeconomic factors. At press tim,e BTC is trading around $114,500 after failing to hold price above $115k.

The current price action comes after stabilization in institutional flows, with Bitwise reporting $18.74 million in net inflows, a potential reversal after one of the largest ETF outflow days on record last week.

If ETF inflows continue and implied volatility begins to compress, BTC could rally higher, allowing the cryptocurrency to reclaim its previous levels around $118. 

BTC could retest $113k before rallying higher

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as Bitcoin has been underperforming over the past few days. The technical indicators remain stagnant as the market continues to consolidate.

The Relative Strength Index of 49 shows that the bearish trend could be fading as it approaches the neutral zone. The MACD lines are also within the neutral zone, suggesting a consolidating market. 

Bitcoin’s rally is sustainable once the RSI crosses and stays above 50. If the market conditions improve, BTC could rally towards the TLQ at $116k. Surpassing this resistance level would allow BTC to retest the major resistance zone at $120k over the coming hours or days.

However, the market conditions remain unclear, and Bitcoin could undergo a correction. If that happens, the bulls might be prompted to defend the major support level around $112k. Failure to hold this support level would see Bitcoin trade below $110k for the first time since July 9. 

Currently, the market conditions are stable, with no clear bullish or bearish direction for traders.

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Since the beginning of July, Ethereum has been on a bullish trajectory, experiencing an over 54% increase in the past month. After breaking past key resistance levels, the second-largest crypto asset appears to have found stability above the $3,700 mark. While ETH has displayed a powerful rally over the past weeks, major investors have been turning up at a rapid rate.

Large Ethereum Investors Are Expanding

Ethereum’s price has displayed robust resilience, holding strong above crucial resistance levels such as $3,700. Its notable resilience is now being backed by a steady increase in large investors often regarded in the crypto sector as whales.

The rise in whale wallet addresses holding large amounts of ETH was reported by Santiment, a leading market intelligence and on-chain data platform, on X. This growth indicates a renewed wave of confidence from high-net-worth investors towards the altcoin leader.

With institutional and high-net-worth participants reentering the market, these cohorts might be anticipating a more widespread rebound or a tactical shift in ETH’s long-term worth. It might indicate a turning point in the course of ETH’s current upward action.

Santiment revealed in the research that Ethereum whales are growing while Bitcoin whales are decreasing. This analysis of the behavior and interests of large investors, conducted by the on-chain firm, spans a period of two weeks.

Data from the platform shows that the number of big wallet addresses holding at least 10,000 ETH has increased by an additional 90 wallets in the last 2 weeks. The additional wallet addresses reflect an over 8% growth within the time frame.

Ali Martinez, a market expert and trader, offering more insight on ETH’s whale action, has highlighted a massive accumulation among these cohorts. His investigation is centered around wallet addresses holding between 10,000  and 100,000 ETH.

According to the expert, some of the biggest whales have purchased more than 220,000 ETH on the network in the last 2 days. At current price levels, this massive ETH accumulation is valued at around $840 million.

This quiet accumulation reflects that major investors are becoming more confident in Ethereum’s prospects and the ongoing upward trend. Since the growing accumulation of ETH coincides with rising prices, this action may imply that major investors are positioning themselves ahead of a possible market breakout.

Trump’s World Liberty Buying ETH Again

A recent report from Lookonchain reveals that World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a crypto venture linked to United States President Donald Trump, has resumed its ETH purchase. The crypto venture bought about 256 ETH, valued at $1.01 million at the time of purchase.

With this latest purchase, WLFI has further fortified its ETH exposure. Presently, World Liberty Financial has acquired a total of 77,226 ETH, worth approximately $296 million at an average price of $3,294. Furthermore, the venture is sitting on an unrealized profit of $41 million.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

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Opeyemi savors his attraction to the crypto market, which explains why he spends the better parts of his day looking through different price charts. “Looking” is a rather simple way to describe analyzing and interpreting various price patterns and chart formations. However, it appears that is not Opeyemi’s favorite part – in fact, far from it.

Being able to connect what happens on a price chart to on-chain movements and blockchain activities is what keeps Opeyemi ticking. “This emphasizes the intricacies of blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency market,” he would say. Most importantly, Opeyemi thinks of any market insights as the gospel, while recognizing that he is only a messenger.

When he is not clicking away at his keyboard, Opeyemi is most definitely listening to music, playing games, reading a book, or scrolling through X. He likes to think he is not loyal to a particular genre of music, which can be true on many days. However, the fast-rising Afrobeats genre is a staple in Opeyemi’s Spotify Daily Mix.

Meanwhile, Opeyemi is a voracious reader who enjoys a wide category of books – ranging from science fiction, fantasy, and historical, to even romance. He believes that authors like George R. R. Martin and J. K.
Rowling are the greatest of all time when it comes to putting pen to paper. Opeyemi believes his reading of the Harry Potter series twice is proof of that.

Indeed, Opeyemi enjoys spending most of his time within the four walls of his home. However, he also sometimes finds solace in the company of his friends at a bar, a restaurant, or even on a stroll. In essence, Opeyemi’s ambivert (haha! been searching for an opportunity to use the word to describe myself) nature makes him a social chameleon who is able to quickly adapt to different settings.

Opeyemi recognizes the need to constantly develop oneself in order to stay afloat in a competitive and ever-evolving market like crypto. For this reason, he is always in learning mode, ready to pick up the slightest lesson from every situation. Opeyemi is efficient and likes to deliver all that is required of him in time – he believes that “whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well.” Hence, you will always find him striving to be better.

Ultimately, Opeyemi is a good writer and an even better person who is trying to shed light on an exciting world phenomenon – cryptocurrency. He goes to bed every day with a smile of satisfaction on his face, knowing that he has done his bit of the holy assignment – spreading the crypto gospel to the rest of the world.

Bitcoin price started another decline below the $66,500 level. BTC is gaining bearish momentum and might revisit the $63,200 support.

• Bitcoin started a fresh decline from the $68,500 resistance zone.
• The price is trading below $65,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $66,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair might extend losses and trade toward the $63,200 support zone.

Bitcoin Price Gains Bearish Momentum

Bitcoin price failed to hold gains above the $66,500 support level. BTC started another decline and traded below the $66,000 support zone. There was a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $63,225 swing low to the $68,313 high.

Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $66,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The pair is now accelerating lower below the $65,000 level.

Bitcoin price is now trading below $66,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. It is also below the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $63,225 swing low to the $68,313 high. If there is a recovery wave, the price could face resistance near the $65,200 level.

The first key resistance is near the $65,500 level. A clear move above the $65,500 resistance might spark another increase in the coming sessions. The next key resistance could be $66,200. The next major hurdle sits at $66,800 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. A close above the $66,800 resistance might push the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $68,000 resistance.

More Losses In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to recover above the $65,500 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support on the downside is near the $64,000 level.

The first major support is $63,200. The next support is now near $62,500. Any more losses might send the price toward the $61,500 support zone in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $64,000, followed by $63,200.

Major Resistance Levels – $65,500, and $66,800.

On Tuesday evening, December 5, Bitcoin registered an additional 5% rally with the BTC price shooting past $44,300. As of press time, BTC is trading at $43,744 with a market cap of $855 billion.

Bitcoin Whales Return to Buying

In recent updates from on-chain data provider Santiment, Bitcoin’s surge aligns closely with the activity of existing wallets holding 100 or more Bitcoins, showcasing a tight correlation with the price movement.

Following a significant drop-off observed on November 9th, the past four weeks have witnessed the return of 48 of these substantial whale wallets. The resurgence of these large wallets suggests renewed interest and activity among major players in the Bitcoin market, adding an additional layer of insight into the ongoing dynamics influencing the BTC price.

In the current bullish market, the spotlight is on spot-driven dynamics, as major derivatives data remains relatively stable. Futures premiums are holding at approximately 10%, while options implied volatilities (IVs) show modest gains, reports Greeks.Live.

The ongoing rally, coupled with news of an imminent ETF passage, underscores the health of this spot-driven bull market. With limited downside risks, it solidifies the notion that the bull market is not merely a transient phase but a sustained trend with enduring strength.

What Shall BTC Investors Expect Ahead?

Bitcoin maxis are already going gaga over this week’s BTC price move with veterans like Max Keiser expecting a ‘God candle‘ to $100K. However, technical charts show that investors should wait before making any fresh entry at this point.

Renowned crypto analyst Ali Martinez issues a cautionary note, predicting a potential correction in Bitcoin’s price. Martinez points to the TD Sequential indicator, indicating that the correction might commence within the next 7 to 48 hours. This assessment is based on analyses of both daily and three-day charts.

A #Bitcoin price correction is coming… The question is when?

Well, the TD Sequential indicator suggests that a potential $BTC price pullback could begin within the next 7 to 48 hours, based on the daily and three-day charts. pic.twitter.com/UwI1IMq4jo

— Ali (@ali_charts) December 5, 2023

According to crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe, a new price range has solidified. Anticipating the current movement to conclude shortly, he foresees a consolidation phase before a potential final push towards the $48,000 to $50,000 range, particularly in the pre-ETF period. Following this, van de Poppe envisions a period of sideways action with a support level between $36,000 and $38,000. Investors are advised to monitor these potential market movements closely.

Our new range has established. Probably this move is going to finish soon, consolidate for a little and have a final push towards $48-50K pre-ETF.

After that period of sideways action with $36-38K as a bottom. #Altcoins to go ballistic. pic.twitter.com/6kJOoe0v6D

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) December 5, 2023

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Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast and holds a good flair in understanding financial markets. His interest in economics and finance draw his attention towards the new emerging Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrency markets. He is continuously in a learning process and keeps himself motivated by sharing his acquired knowledge. In free time he reads thriller fictions novels and sometimes explore his culinary skills.

The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.