Bitcoin’s latest stretch of sideways price action around $70,000 is being read by some traders as a sign that the cryptocurrency is finally settling down. However, technical analysis shows that the structure now forming on the daily chart might not actually be a recovery base at all but a distribution pattern before a new low that has already appeared once before during a bigger decline since late 2025.
Bitcoin’s Distribution Mechanism Is Still The Same
According to a crypto analyst that goes by the name Ardi on the social media platform X, Bitcoin’s distribution phases keep looking identical because the mechanism never really changes. This is in relation to Bitcoin’s current price action, which has been trading in a range between $63,000 and $72,000 since early February.
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The idea behind this technical analysis is that Bitcoin’s behavior in bearish phases tends to follow a recognizable sequence. Price moves into a range, traders begin to treat the consolidation as stability, liquidity builds above local highs, and then a brief breakout above the range pulls in optimism from many crypto traders.
However, that optimism does not always last. Once the price fails to hold above the range highs, the structure starts to weaken, and the next breakdown to the range support takes place.
The chart attached to the analysis presents two nearly identical subsections. The first distribution range played out between roughly the mid-$80,000 region and the low-$90,000s between November 2025 and January 2026.
This move eventually concluded with Bitcoin pushing higher, touching highs around $96,000, failing to accept above the range, and then breaking down towards the lower end of the range. That decline led into a break below the low support level that eventually dragged the price to as low as $63,000 in early February.
Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @ArdiNSC On X
Why A Move Below $50,000 Is Now On The Table
A sweep of local highs above $76,000 in early March generated headlines about how the Bitcoin price is now recovering. However, the price ultimately failed to hold above the range and began rolling over again. As it stands, price action in the past few days has mostly been bearish candlesticks, which have caused the Bitcoin price to be pushing to the lower end of the current range again.
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The most bearish part of the chart is the projected zone that follows the current range. Projecting the previous markdown in late January to the current price action would see the Bitcoin price break below the local $63,000 bottom.
Particularly, the chart projected a similar outcome, with the highlighted markdown box extending down to $50,000 and as low as $48,000. This projection follows similar outlooks from multiple analysts that have predicted Bitcoin might break below $50,000 before creating a new bottom.
Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
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Bitcoin recovered above $16,000 in the early hours of Monday after hitting $15,600 on Sunday. With the continued trend above $16,000, it is starting to look like the digital asset is finally on a path to recovery but this is not the case. The recovery only shows a temporary stoppage in what is a continuous bleed as momentum continues to drop across the space.
This Is Not The Bitcoin Bottom
The bitcoin bottom is still highly debated even now. When the digital asset had hit its previous cycle low of $17,600 and then ranged above $20,000 for a long time, there were speculations that the bottom was finally in but historical data said otherwise, which turned out to be true.
Now, bitcoin has already reached a new cycle low of $15,500. However, going by the same historical data, it is unlikely that the bitcoin bottom has been marked. Instead, it is more likely for the digital asset to see $15,000 going forward than another recovery above $20,000. This is because of the developments that are still coming out of the space.
BTC price at $16,090 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
By now, it is no longer a secret that the FTX collapse had rubbed off on a lot of big players. Where the collapse of the likes of Terra and Celsius had been bad, FTX’s decline carries worse implications for the crypto market. Add in the fact that the crypto exchange was hacked for more than $300 million and the hacker is now dumping the tokens, and there is no way that BTC has seen its bottom yet.
There is also little to no support at $16,000 for the digital asset even at this time. It remains a seller’s market, which means that the bears remain in control. There is also significant resistance at the $16,500 level, and with the low momentum in the market, a test of this area is unlikely.
Investors are also pulling their coins out of centralized exchanges in record numbers, with $5.5 billion in BTC flowing out of exchanges in the last week, according to data from Glassnode. Investors are also wary of the market at this time, which means there will be no new liquidity entering the market for a while.
Historical trends place the bitcoin bottom somewhere around $12,000-$13,000, so another 20% could be in the future of BTC before it registers a lasting bottom.
Featured image from TronWeekly, chart from TradingView.com
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