Bitcoin could be on track for a massive long-term rally if one of the most interesting valuation models in the crypto industry is still valid. According to pseudonymous analyst PlanB, the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model suggests that Bitcoin could average around $500,000 during the current halving cycle between 2024 and 2028.
The bold projection comes even as Bitcoin is showing no signs of trading at that level in recent days, but recent price action in the past 24 hours has seen it reclaiming the $70,000 price level.
Here’s When Bitcoin Will Reach $500,000
PlanB’s projection for Bitcoin is not that the cryptocurrency’s price action instantly jumps to $50,000, but that the entire post-halving cycle from 2024 through 2028 could average around that level if the Stock-to-Flow framework continues to play out as predicted. That is a much more aggressive call than simply predicting a cycle top, because an average of $500,000 would imply that Bitcoin would eventually spend meaningful time well above that price level at some stage of the cycle.
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The current Bitcoin price setup is a test of whether the leading cryptocurrency is deeply undervalued at today’s levels or whether the S2F model has finally broken down for good.
The chart attached to PlanB’s technical analysis helps explain this prediction of a $500,000 price tag for Bitcoin. It overlays Bitcoin’s price history with the 200-week moving average, realized cost price, RSI coloring, and a staircase-like Stock-to-Flow path. The dotted S2F path for the 2024-2028 halving window rises to around $500,000 in 2027.
Bitcoin S2F Model. Source: Plan B On X
What’s Going On With Bitcoin?
Bitcoin has spent the past week swinging between recovery and pressure, a stretch that saw the asset trade above $73,000 on March 5 before falling back toward the mid-$60,000s and then rebounding again above $70,000 at the time of writing. That uncertain context of price action is what makes PlanB’s latest Stock-to-Flow price prediction stand out, because it takes strong conviction to predict an average price of $500,000 for Bitcoin.
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The recent price action places Bitcoin just above two long-watched structural supports: the realized cost price and the 200-week moving average. Both of these supports are also visible in PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow model chart shared above. That does not automatically prove a six-figure or seven-figure breakout is next, but it does support the view that the entire cycle structure has not fully collapsed.
As it stands, about 43% of Bitcoin addresses are holding at a loss, with the majority being short-term holders and Bitcoin treasury firms. However, many analysts have proposed that Bitcoin’s correction is yet to find a bottom, despite it being down by over 45% from its October 2025 peak.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Using historical and future Bitcoin halving events, the Bitcoin Stock to Flow (S2F) live data chart model has pointed toward a BTC surge to unprecedented highs during the 2028 to 2032 halvings.
Bitcoin To Hit $5 Million After 2028 Halving
Crypto analyst Bit Harington recently shared insights in a post on X (formerly Twitter) about the potential surges in the price of Bitcoin during the next halving stages. Using data from the Bitcoin S2F chart, Harington predicted the price of Bitcoin would reach $500,000 by the fourth halving, which is taking place in April.
His predictions were based on the distinctive trend observed in BTC’s price, where the first to third halving phases exhibited a consistent 10x price increase for each successive halving.
Responding to the post, the creator of the S2F model, Plan B, made a bold prediction, suggesting that the average price of Bitcoin during the 2028 and 2032 halving events could potentially reach an impressive $5 million.
The cryptocurrency has consistently experienced bullish rallies following each halving event, from the first Bitcoin halving in November 2012 to the third in May 2020. Due to this, many investors and crypto analysts foresee a similar surge in BTC’s price during 2024 halving.
These expectations could be attributed to the events that typically occur during a Bitcoin halving event. In each halving phase, BTC mining rewards are cut in half, and the supply of the token is reduced, thereby inducing scarcity and increasing the token’s value.
While these price projections about Bitcoin are made to keep investors alert, it’s important to note that they remain speculations, and models like S2F can be subject to wide margins of error.
BTC price struggles to hold $42,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com
Analyst Reveals Key Factors To Consider In 2024 Halving
Another crypto analyst, Ali Martinez, has disclosed four crucial factors to keep in mind as the 2024 April Bitcoin halving approaches. Martinez highlighted the significance of the post-halving price corrections in the 2016 and 2020 Bitcoin halving, emphasizing that BTC declined by 30% to 70% within a month after the halving phases.
He also mentioned BTC’s post-halving rallies, where the cryptocurrency experienced significant surges to 700%, 2,850%, and 11,000%, respectively, during the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halving events. The crypto analyst delved into bull market durations after each halving, which lasted about a year or more.
He concluded his analysis by predicting that the next Bitcoin market top would occur around April or October 2025. At the time of writing, the price of BTC was $42,110, according to CoinMarketCap.
Featured image from Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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Bitcoin soared about 8% to above $45,900 to kick off 2024, the highest level since March 2022. A relentlessly climbing trading volume for stablecoins Tether (USDT) and FDUSD indicates massive demand. Ethereum (ETH) also gained more than 6% to hit a high of $2,431. Crypto analysts are extensively bullish on BTC price to reach $50,000.
Bitcoin Price Prediction By PlanB
Bitcoin stock-to-flow (S2F) model creator PlanB took to X (formerly Twitter) on January 1 to share his BTC price prediction for 2024. He said his recommendation for 2024 is similar to what he said a year ago when Bitcoin was trading near $20,000.
He said BTC price will rise in response to the April 2024 Bitcoin halving. The halving will happen at block height 840,000, which is expected to happen on April 23 as per the Bitcoin halving countdown.
The S2F model predicts BTC price at $55,000 near the Bitcoin halving and pump after the halving event. Historically, BTC price witnessed a massive rally after each Bitcoin halving event. After the last halving in Mat 2020, Bitcoin rallied over 1200% in a year.
He is confident that BTC price will hit $100k in 2024. Matrixport and Standard Chartered predicted BTC price to rally over $120k by the end of the year. The S2F model even targets BTC price reaching $1 million at the end of 2025.
Also Read: Binance Burns 5.57 Billion Terra Luna Classic, LUNC And USTC Prices Rise Over 7%
BTC Price Starts 2024 With a Bang
Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe expects a continuation of the upside trend toward $48-51K. There is a potential resistance there, anticipating huge volatility during the spot Bitcoin ETF approval window between January 5-10.
Skew added that Bitcoin price stalling since selling started in spot market. He eyes previous highs of $44.4K as the area to buy the dip. Some traders believe the market consensus for a long rally due to Bitcoin ETF is correct, but a sudden upside move could be a trap.
Also Read: Crypto Market Rally — Here’s Why BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, And Others Are Up Today
The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst responsible for the creation of the Stock-To-Flow (S2F) model has made bold predictions suggesting that Bitcoin could reach an astonishing $500,000 per coin during the next halving event.
Variations in the S2F Model
The S2F model, which has gained significant popularity within the crypto community, analyzes the relationship between Bitcoin’s scarcity (stock) and its rate of production (flow).
The model suggests that as Bitcoin’s issuance rate decreases over time, its scarcity will increase, leading to higher prices. Notably, PlanB’s model has been reasonably accurate in the past, successfully predicting Bitcoin’s price movements.
Based on the latest data and the average S2F ratio and BTC price during the halving cycle, PlanB’s updated model still suggests a price of $54,000 for the current cycle.
However, at the time of the statement, Bitcoin was trading around $31,000, indicating a deviation from the model’s prediction. PlanB acknowledges the model’s error but believes it does not render the S2F model broken or invalid.
Additionally, PlanB noted that the S2F model predicted a price of $4,400 during the previous halving cycle, from 2016 to 2020, but Bitcoin’s actual price was $5,800. This tiny change underlines that the model provides insights but is not perfect.
Recovery in the Crypto Industry
PlanB’s recent predictions coincide with a notable recovery in the overall crypto ecosystem. Bitcoin, in particular, has undergone a price spike, testing its critical resistance level. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at a spot price of $29,741.98, representing an increase of over 1.19% within the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin’s resurgence has not only impacted its own value but has also catalyzed a rally across various alternative cryptocurrencies, commonly referred to as altcoins. As Bitcoin gains momentum, investors and traders often look to diversify their portfolios by investing in altcoins, which can lead to increased demand and subsequent price rises for these alternative digital assets.
The current market environment has seen altcoins attaining new highs and reaching new pedestals. The positive sentiment surrounding Bitcoin’s recovery has spilled over into the broader digital currency market, with investors seeking opportunities beyond the dominant cryptocurrency.
The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Creator of the Bitcoin stock-2-flow (S2F) model, popularly known by his pseudonym, PlanB has taken to twitter to reveal S2F’s model prediction after the 2024 halving.
Bitcoin S2F model predicts $500K+ average after 2024 halving
134,842 people have casted votes in a poll carried out by PlanB on Twitter, 81% believe that Bitcoin would remain below $500,000 by 2027, the former institutional investor and creator of the stock-to-flow model begs to differ, his S2F model predicts $500,000+ average after 2024 halving.
He has also put it that the situation is very much similar to March 2019 when he published S2F model and BTC was below $4K, PlanB said “Majority thought S2F prediction of $55K after 2020 halving was crazy.“ The Bitcoin stock-to-flow uses scarcity to quantify Bitcoin value.
A Bitcoin halving is the process of halving the rewards of mining Bitcoin after each set of 210,000 blocks is mined. By reducing the rewards of mining Bitcoin as more blocks are mined, a Bitcoin halving limits the supply of new coins, so prices could rise if demand remains strong.The halving is usually followed by massive price proliferation.
The most recent halving which took place on May 11 2020 saw bitcoin’s price continuing to perform bullishly a full year after the event took place, It rose by more than 559%.
The Bitcoin S2F model
In 2019, PlanB published his Stock-to-Flow model for the Bitcoin price, the S2F model states that the price of bitcoin is driven by its scarcity, as the halving ensure that bitcoin becomes ever more scarce, its price should continuously increase.
The primary argument for the veracity of this model is that since it was created in 2019, it has been very accurate in predicting the price trend of Bitcoin. Some analysts feel the model is too bullish.
The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Bitcoin has dropped significantly in price over the last few days. Bitcoin’s price dropped 8.75% in the last 24 hours, currently trading at around $35,600. This is no reason to panic, however, according to Plan B, the pseudonymous creator of the Bitcoin stock-to-flow (S2F) model. Plan B has even urged market participants to embrace volatility as over the long term Bitcoin has proven to be a rewarding investment.
Plan B reassures that the Bitcoin market will bounce back
In a recent tweet, the creator of the Bitcoin S2F model has reiterated his bullishness on Bitcoin and his confidence in the S2F model. Using his investment journey as a case in point, Plan B urged market participants to hold a long-term view of Bitcoin and ignore the current dip.
He narrated that he bought his first Bitcoin in 2016 at $400. In 2019, he published the S2F model when Bitcoin was at $4,000. Since then, the S2F model has been tracking Bitcoin market performance accurately to within 2 standard deviation bands, even up till now when the price has fallen under $40,000. From this historical price performance of Bitcoin, Plan B stated that it is inevitable that Bitcoin’s price will add another zero in the next couple of years.
…Some are worried about current dip, but I am quite sure that Bitcoin will add another zero next couple of years, he said.
This take is only his latest reminder to market participants to hold on to their Bitcoin as the bearish trend would soon reverse. According to another recent tweet, he stated that the bounce would be epic when Bitcoin bulls regained control.
Fears are still high that the crypto market could crash further
Bitcoin’s market performance has been the cause of a lot of fears in the crypto market. The latest fear and greed index figure puts Bitcoin market sentiment in the “extreme fear” zone. One reason for this is that the current Bitcoin price of $35,600 was last seen in July last year when the market was struggling to recover from the crypto market crash that started in May.
Futures market liquidations have also been sky high. In the last 24 hours, the crypto market has seen over $1 billion worth of liquidations over days from Coinglass. Bitcoin futures liquidations reached $348 million in the time frame.
The poor market performance has been the backdrop for many bearish sentiments. According to Cryptowhale, Bitcoin’s price will never reach its current all-time high of $69,000 again but will crash to under $10,000 in 2022. This view is shared by gold bug and Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff.
Regardless, Plan B has not been the only Bitcoin bull urging investors to keep a level head in these times. In a survey the Dutch analyst conducted on Twitter, the majority (48%) of participants revealed that the next bullish catalyst for Bitcoin would be the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF by the SEC. Popular on-chain analyst, Will Clemente, stated that in his opinion the market would probably turn around on news of another El Salvador, or the FED reversing their current hawkish stance.
Disclaimer
The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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Bitcoin stock-to-flow (S2F) creator PlanB believes a $98k target for the cryptocurrency by November end is a realistic goal.
S2F Popularizer PlanB Sticks To $98k Target For November
Back in June, when Bitcoin was below $34k, analyst PlanB put out a list for his targets of the crypto in the subsequent months.
The tweet had these targets for BTC: Aug >47K, Sep >43K, Oct >63K, Nov >98K, and Dec >135K. So far, all these price goals have been decently accurate. But the real challenge will be the current month of November as the target for it is quite bold.
PlanB has used the stock-to-flow model for the predictions. S2F is based on the ratio between the current supply (stock) and the annual production (flow).
The S2F value shows how scarce Bitcoin is at a particular time. Based on this scarcity, the model uses a formula to predict the future price of the coin.
Here is the latest chart for this BTC price model:
Bitcoin price vs the line predicted by the S2F model | Source: buybitcoinworldwide
As the above chart shows, the model has been remarkably close to the real thing so far, although there were a few points of deviation.
Related Reading | S2F Model Creator Hypes Up $10K Daily Bitcoin Candles
Now, despite the apparent accuracy, some people in the community think the $98k BTC target for November set by PlanB is unrealistic, citing that the jump is quite large.
The analyst has responded by saying that while the jump is 60% from the level at the start of the month, BTC has achieved similar feats before. In the tweet, he lists examples of when it has happened in the history of the coin. Some of these jumps were May 2019 (62%), August 2017 (66%), May 2017 (66%), etc.
Related Reading | PlanB: S2F Model Predicts Bitcoin To Break $100k By Christmas
More people have raised concerns about the target in replies to the tweet, bringing up an important point that the market cap was significantly smaller during the previous times when BTC showed a similarly large monthly jump in the price.
Bitcoin Price
At the time of writing, BTC’s price floats around $65.5k, up 6% in the last seven days. Over the past thirty days, the crypto has amassed 18% in value.
The below chart shows the trend in the price of Bitcoin over the last five days.
BTC's price has surged up today | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
After going through consolidation for a couple of weeks, Bitcoin has finally shown a solid move up as the coin retouched $66k today.
This month will be a decisive test for the validity of PlanB’s S2F model as some people have raised concerns about whether the $98k target is actually achievable.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, buybitcoinworldwide.com
A massive battle has been taking place as Bitcoin moves sideways in the past day. The benchmark cryptocurrency trades at $60,938 as of press time with a 1.2% profit in the 7-day chart.
Bitcoin was rejected at the high of its current level driven by a surge in institutional demand. The launch of the first BTC-linked ETF in the U.S. seems to be a potential cause for the rally.
Related Reading | Data Shows Whales Are Dumping, But Bitcoin Holds Above $60k
The market has been cooling off post launch of the investment product leading into a consolidation phase, as noted by QCP Capital in a recent report. The price action could continue in its crab-like trend as the volatility diminishes, the firm places it at 60% during the past days.
In consequence, the general sentiment in the market seems to be flipping bearish or at least uncertain. A large portion of traders and Bitcoin investors count on further gains as November is historically a bullish month for the cryptocurrency.
In support of this thesis, the Stock-to-Flow model created by analyst Plan B has triggered a lot of hype. Created to measure the amount of BTC produce and the market demand as a response, the model makes prediction about the price of Bitcoin.
According to the model, BTC should trend to the upside and reach a price target of around $80,000 in the next two weeks and move beyond $100,000 by the end of 2021.
Plan B has been updating its followers via his Twitter account. The analyst expects Bitcoin to re-entered price discovery with a massive rally in the short term.
Are you ready for +$10K daily candles? pic.twitter.com/SSOCRNalJ5
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 5, 2021
Bitcoin Follows Stock-to-Flow Model Like Clockwork?
In a different post, the analyst shared an updated chart that follows Bitcoin and its trajectory into the $100,000 zone. As seen below, the cryptocurrency approaches the prediction.
The analyst recently conducted a poll asking his followers if Bitcoin will be able to reach that target, based on the original S2F model, or if it will reach $288,000, based on a prediction made with the S2FX model a variation of its previous model, or if it’ll go beyond by December 2021.
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203.569 people replied to the poll. As of press time, 38.4% believe Bitcoin will be at $100,000 by that time, and 34.4% voted for $288,000.
Do you think #bitcoin will reach $500K, $288K (S2FX model), $100K (S2F model), or will BTC stay below $100K .. by Christmas 2021?
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 5, 2021
Despite its popularity, the Stock-to-Flow model faces heavy criticism. Some find its predictions exaggerated, unrealistic, and based on inaccurate data. Thus, they have taken to accuse the analyst of hyping the market.
Shortly, the model will be invalidated or confirmed if it fails to meet its target. In the meantime, BTC remains rangebound with whales and retails seemingly standing in opposite sides.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Stable, Why BTC Could Aim Fresh Rally To $65K
Creator of the popular Bitcoin price prediction chart “stock-to-flow”, PlanB, puts $135k target for BTC by December 2021.
What Is The Bitcoin Stock-To-Flow Model?
The BTC stock-to-flow (S2F in short) method is a price prediction model popularized by PlanB. S2F is based on the ratio between the stock (current supply) and the flow (annual production).
It’s often thought that PlanB is the creator of the S2F model itself, however, that isn’t the case. The method has been used in the past for other assets like gold and silver, but PlanB was the first to implement it for Bitcoin. In this way, PlanB is the creator of the Bitcoin S2F chart, although not the core concept itself.
The stock-to-flow value of an asset like BTC shows how scarce it is. The model relates this value with the price and gives a prediction based on that.
Here is the latest price chart based on the S2F model for BTC:
Bitcoin price according to the S2F model | Source: buybitcoinworldwide
As is visible in the above chart, the method has been remarkably close to the real thing in its predictions. Although there have been a few points of deviation, the price has always eventually aligned back on the curve.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Jumps 10% In 24 Hours, Dead Cat Bounce Or Real Move Ahead?
PlanB Thinks BTC Could Reach $135k By December
At the start of the month, PlanB listed out their Bitcoin targets in a Tweet. Earlier, the analyst had targets of above $47k for August and above $43k for September, both of which the tweet confirms have been met.
Next targets for the S2F popularizer include more than $63k for October, above $98k for November, and finally at least $135k for December.
According to the S2F model, Bitcoin should reach $100k by December and these targets seem to be in line with that.
Reaching $100k by December will be a make or break moment for the famed price prediction model as the month is only a couple of months away now. At the moment, BTC’s price floats around $47.6k, up 10% in the last seven days.
Related Reading | TA: Bitcoin Turns Green, Why BTC Could Soon Breach $50K
Here is a chart showing the trend in the price of BTC over the last five days:
BTC's price seems to have flattened in the last few days after a sharp move up | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Bitcoin volatility had seemed to have made a return over the last few weeks as the price showed a lot of chaotic movements over the month of September.
But the coin’s value has again flattened now and it’s unclear when a move in either direction will happen. Though if the S2F model is anything to go by, a move up will need to happen soon.
PlanB, the popularizer behind the Bitcoin S2F method, says the model predicts BTC will break $100k by this Christmas.
The Bitcoin Stock-To-Flow Model
According to PlanB on Twitter, the BTC stock-to-flow (or S2F in short) model predicts that the cryptocurrency is on its way to break $100k by Christmas.
The S2F model is a method to predict the price of an asset based on the ratio of the stock (supply) to the flow (annual production).
PlanB is commonly known as the originator of the model, which is, however, not true. The method was already used for other assets like gold or silver before the analyst only popularized it for Bitcoin.
The S2F value of an asset can show how scarce the commodity is. The model uses a formula to relate that value with the price of the asset, which in this case is BTC.
Related Reading | Ethereum Issuance Drops Below Bitcoin’s For the First Time, Why This May Lead to a New Rally
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend of BTC’s price vs what’s predicted by the model:
Along with the S2F model, the Time Model is also depicted | Source: PlanB
As the above graph shows, the Bitcoin price as predicted by the model seems to be remarkably close to the real thing so far.
There are a few points of deviation, but the overall trend seems to be quite similar. Now, if the price follows the pattern going forward, BTC’s value should go up soon, reaching over $100k by Christmas.
Related Reading | Stablecoins Reserve Hits A New ATH, What Does It Mean For Bitcoin’s Price?
Besides the S2F model, there is also the curve for the Time Model in the chart. This “Time Model” is a method that takes into account diminishing returns and lengthening cycles while predicting the price.
According to this other model, the price should be around $30k by Christmas. PlanB, however, believes that this method underestimates Bitcoin’s value, and the S2F model is more accurate.
BTC’s Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $47.8k, down 4% in the last 7 days. Over the past month, the cryptocurrency has increased 14% in price.
The below chart shows the trend in the coin’s value over the last three months.
BTC's price catches a downtrend | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
After breaking above the $49k price mark again yesterday, Bitcoin has started to sharply fall down. It looks like the cryptocurrency is in a range market right now as the coin’s price continues to swing between $45k-$50k.
It’s unclear where BTC might head next, but if the S2F model holds any weight, the crypto might be moving big soon in order to reach $100k by Christmas.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from PlanBTC.com, TradingView.com
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