Bitcoin has been holding above $65,000 for over a month now, and this price level is starting to carry more weight than it seems on the surface. The current structure is no longer just about short-term volatility, but a question about whether the market is building a base or setting up for one more lower move to as low as $40,000 before any real rally begins.

Another question now is not just where Bitcoin goes next, but how its next move shapes the timeline for an altcoin season.

Analyst Warns Of Bear Case That Could Delay Altcoin Season

A recent technical analysis from a chartist highlights a less favorable path for Bitcoin, one that could push the price action into another extended leg down.

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The analyst describes this setup as a bear case scenario, noting that it is not the expected outcome but still a realistic possibility. In this structure, Bitcoin’s price action first moves higher into a resistance zone around the $78,000 to $82,000 region, where a previous breakdown occurred in late January. 

That optimism, however, could be short-lived. The projection shows price failing at that resistance and reversing sharply, leading to a deeper decline that sweeps previous lows and pushes the Bitcoin price below $40,000. According to the analyst, such a move would delay the formation of a macro bottom and push any meaningful altcoin season further out.

There’s also a liquidity zone around a wick low in February. That wick is situated just above $60,000, where the Bitcoin price bottomed on February 6 before being quickly bought back up.

The outlook is that this level still needs to be taken out cleanly before a sustained rally can begin. Without that sweep, upside moves will still be vulnerable to failure. 

A quick bottom from current levels would allow capital to rotate sooner into altcoins. A delayed sweep to levels, on the other hand, will keep liquidity tied up in Bitcoin for longer and postpone that rotation.

A Drop Below $40,000 Looks Unlikely

Even with that bearish scenario on the table, the price structure of Bitcoin is still against a sustained breakdown below $40,000. According to the analyst, there is only about a 40% probability that this scenario plays out.

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On-chain data is showing strong support layers well above the $40,000 price level. For instance, Bitcoin’s realized price is still around $54,000, and this would act as a support even if Bitcoin were to fall below $60,000 and into the $50,000 range.

Speaking of support, the Bitcoin price has managed to hold above $63,000 since the early February crash, despite macro headwinds like the war in the Middle East, oil prices rising, and multiple predictions of a further bottom below $60,000 and even some below $50,000 over the past two months.

Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

A crypto analyst has identified an eight-year convergence pattern on the Ethereum (ETH)-Bitcoin (BTC) trading pair chart, suggesting it could signal the long-awaited onset of an altcoin season. Although rumors of an altcoin season have circulated in the crypto space since before 2025, such a phase has yet to materialize, underscoring the persistent volatility in alternative cryptocurrencies throughout this bull market. Despite this prolonged delay, the analyst argues that the new convergence structure could become a catalyst that fuels an altcoin season even more powerful than the one observed in 2021.  

Ethereum Chart Structure Signals Powerful Altcoin Season

Crypto analyst CW has presented a new technical analysis suggesting a major altcoin season in this cycle. Supported by a multi-year chart structure, the analysis centers on the ETH/BTC trading pair and outlines a unique convergence pattern that has been developing since mid-2017. 

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In his post on X, CW predicts that this convergence pattern could break during the current bull market cycle. The structure is visible on the weekly chart as a large descending triangle or wedge that started when ETH/BTC reached a peak around 0.16. Since that high, the pair has been compressing between a descending resistance line and a flat horizontal support level near the 0.020 zone. 

Price action in the chart shows that ETH/BTC hit this peak during the 2021 bull market but failed to break the upper descending trendline of the converging pattern. Following this, the pair dropped back sharply and has continued to trend lower, now pressing into the very tip of the convergence pattern near the 0.029 level. 

This suggests that ETH/BTC is approaching its final stage near the apex of the descending triangle pattern. The narrowing distance between the resistance and the support suggests the market could be at a critical juncture. CW suggests that a breakout from this point could end the trading pair’s eight-year compression within the convergence pattern. If this happens, it could signal a major shift in strength from BTC to ETH, and finally to the broader altcoin market, marking the potential onset of an altcoin season in 2026.  

2026 Altcoin Season To Surpass 2021 Boom

CW emphasized in his post that the altcoin season he anticipates in this bull cycle could exceed the strength of the 2021 cycle, mirroring the explosive scale of the 2017 cycle. He argued that many investors underestimate how powerful the 2017 bull run was, noting that it delivered wider, more aggressive gains across the altcoin market than the more selective rally in 2021. 

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In a previous analysis, CW shared a separate chart from CryptoQuant, adding further weight to his outlook for a 2026 altcoin season. The chart, which tracks the CEX volume ratio of non-BTC assets versus Bitcoin, excluding stablecoins, compares the current market setup to the 2021 altcoin season. 

In both periods, altcoin trading activity on centralized exchanges was consistently higher than Bitcoin’s volume. However, CW notes that this activity has been running for much longer in 2026 than in 2021. He believes this sustained volume, coupled with a potential breakout from ETH/BTC’s current convergence pattern, strengthens the case of a powerful altcoin season in 2026.

Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com

Christian’s journey with the written word began long before the age of Bitcoin. In the hallowed halls of academia, he honed his craft as a feature writer for his college paper. This early love for storytelling paved the way for a successful stint as an editor at a data engineering firm, where his first-month essay win funded a months-long supply of doggie and kitty treats – a testament to his dedication to his furry companions (more on that later).

Christian then roamed the world of journalism, working at newspapers in Canada and even South Korea. He finally settled down at a local news giant in his hometown in the Philippines for a decade, becoming a total news junkie. But then, something new caught his eye: cryptocurrency. It was like a treasure hunt mixed with storytelling – right up his alley!

So, he landed a killer gig at NewsBTC, where he’s one of the go-to guys for all things crypto. He breaks down this confusing stuff into bite-sized pieces, making it easy for anyone to understand (he salutes his management team for teaching him this skill).

Think Christian’s all work and no play? Not a chance! When he’s not at his computer, you’ll find him indulging his passion for motorbikes. A true gearhead, Christian loves tinkering with his bike and savoring the joy of the open road on his 320-cc Yamaha R3. Once a speed demon who hit 120mph (a feat he vowed never to repeat), he now prefers leisurely rides along the coast, enjoying the wind in his thinning hair.

Speaking of chill, Christian’s got a crew of furry friends waiting for him at home. Two cats and a dog. He swears cats are way smarter than dogs (sorry, Grizzly), but he adores them all anyway. Apparently, watching his pets just chillin’ helps him analyze and write meticulously formatted articles even better.

Here’s the thing about this guy: He works a lot, but he keeps himself fueled by enough coffee to make it through the day – and some seriously delicious (Filipino) food. He says a delectable meal is the secret ingredient to a killer article. And after a long day of crypto crusading, he unwinds with some rum (mixed with milk) while watching slapstick movies.

Looking ahead, Christian sees a bright future with NewsBTC. He says he sees himself privileged to be part of an awesome organization, sharing his expertise and passion with a community he values, and fellow editors – and bosses – he deeply respects.

So, the next time you tread into the world of cryptocurrency, remember the man behind the words – the crypto crusader, the grease monkey, and the feline philosopher, all rolled into one.

Heavy capital outflows and large-scale liquidations have pushed the crypto market firmly into the red, with XRP recording a 26.5% decline over the past week. As prices slide and panic-driven selling accelerates, analysts are shifting focus away from rebound timing toward where support is most likely to form. One prominent market analyst, Casi, has now identified XRP’s next key macro levels, outlining where the asset could either stabilize or face deeper downside pressure.

Panic-Driven Market Breakdown Keeps XRP Under Pressure

According to Casi’s market assessment, the ongoing selloff reflects broad panic conditions rather than controlled profit-taking. Bitcoin has already shed close to 10% in the current downswing, while XRP has recorded losses approaching 20%, underscoring the scale of liquidation moving through altcoin markets.

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She emphasized that attempted bullish divergence signals are being consistently invalidated. In structural terms, this means momentum indicators are failing to confirm price strength, removing a key early signal that traders typically rely on to anticipate reversals. Instead of basing, price continues to expand lower, suggesting the market is still in active discovery mode for demand.

This context reframes XRP’s decline. Rather than viewing the drop as an isolated retracement, Casi interprets it as part of a broader emotional unwind sweeping crypto. Fast downside expansions, thin bid support, and reactive positioning all point to forced selling rather than strategic rotation. Until volatility compresses and divergence structures hold, the probability of sustained recovery remains limited.

Key Fibonacci Zones Define XRP’s Stabilization Path

Within this high-pressure environment, the analyst mapped precise macro retracement zones where structural support could emerge. For XRP, the immediate focus sits near the $1.09 region, aligning with the macro 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. This level represents deep correction territory. Reinforcing this outlook, XRP has breached multiple interim supports while following a descending trend, signaling ongoing distribution. The projected drop into the 0.786 zone aligns with historical demand clusters, marking the next area where sellers may tire and buyers could re-enter.

However, the analyst stopped short of calling a bottom. The current price behavior was described as fast and emotionally driven, conditions that often produce overshoots before equilibrium returns. In this framework, the $1.09 level is not a guaranteed floor but a structural checkpoint where stabilization can begin forming if sell pressure weakens.

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Bitcoin’s positioning adds macro context to XRP’s outlook. The analyst is monitoring $64,500 on BTC, corresponding with its macro 0.5 Fibonacci retracement. Should Bitcoin secure support there, it could provide the cross-market stability required for XRP to defend its deeper retracement zone. Failure, however, would increase the probability of extended downside across altcoins.

In sum, XRP’s trajectory is now tightly linked to panic dynamics and macro support validation. Until structural confirmation emerges, the market remains in support-seeking mode, with $1.09 standing as the next major level where price may attempt to regain footing.

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com