The price of Bitcoin succumbed to bearish pressure and fell to around $65,500 on Friday, while the geopolitical tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran seem to worsen. According to a recent on-chain evaluation, this latest price decline appears to have been triggered by a panic-driven sell-off among the market’s most sensitive investor group.

Panic Selling Dominates Short-Term Market Sentiment

Market analyst Maartunn revealed, in a March 27th post on the X platform, that Bitcoin’s short-term holders have moved a significant amount of Bitcoin into exchanges over the past day. This on-chain observation puts some perspective on the latest drop in the BTC price. 

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The relevant metric here is the Short-Term Holder P&L to Exchange Sum, which measures the total profit or loss that short-term holders realize when sending Bitcoin to exchanges over 24 hours. According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin short-term investors sent roughly 21,700 coins to exchanges in a bid to cut their losses.

Notably, the highlighted chart shows a sharp spike in realized losses at the same time these exchange inflows occurred. Maartunn explained that this means all of these investors who moved their coins actually did so while incurring losses. 

Typically, short-term holders are more likely to exit unfavorable conditions, unlike the long-term holders, who tend to accumulate during dips. It is also worth noting that such capitulation events often occur during periods of high uncertainty (as is currently the case), where fear is the predominant short-term sentiment, rather than confidence. 

What’s Next For Bitcoin’s Price?

The current sell-off by the short-term participants may signal either a potential turning point for Bitcoin or an increased risk of further downward movement. On one hand, as STHs (weaker hands) exit under pressure, their coins are gradually transferred to more resilient investors with higher conviction (known as the diamond hands).

This redistribution is often a source of strength for the overall market structure, as long-term holders are known to accumulate during periods of fear and uncertainty. Hence, what merely seems to be panic selling may actually be underground work for Bitcoin’s recovery.

On the flip side, this capitulation event may further expose the premier cryptocurrency to more downside risk. This scenario would likely come into play if more macroeconomic factors (for example, increasing interest rates) cause demand shrinkage. 

This “demand shrinkage” can make the recent STH capitulation appear more severe than it actually is, as fewer participants are available to absorb supply. As a result, the Bitcoin price could see a spread of bearish momentum, which would in turn send prices further south.

As of press time, Bitcoin’s valuation stands at around $66,110, reflecting a significant 4.2% decline in the past 24 hours. 

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Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s recent price action confirms a clear structural breakdown, ending weeks of compression and shifting momentum to the downside. While a short-term bounce remains possible as price fills nearby imbalances, the broader outlook stays bearish. Unless key resistance levels are quickly reclaimed, any upside move is likely to be temporary, with further downside pressure expected.

Rising Channel Breakdown Signals Shift In Structure

According to a BTC update by crypto analyst Columbus, the market structure has finally broken down after weeks of compression. Price had been coiling within a rising channel, forming higher lows that pressed into overhead resistance. Instead of acceptance higher, Bitcoin faced rejection at trend resistance, followed by a decisive breakdown.

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Current price action suggests continuation to the downside. What once looked like bullish compression has now transitioned into a potential distribution phase. Key liquidity levels now sit below. The $64,000 region stands as the first major magnet, supported by prior reactions and stacked bids. Beneath that, the $62,000 zone represents a deeper sweep area, especially if selling pressure accelerates.

Earlier expectations were clear: acceptance above resistance would confirm continuation, while rejection would trigger a move lower. However, the market has chosen the latter. Unless price quickly reclaims the channel and holds above the $68,000 level, any upward movement is likely to be a relief rally into supply, with short-term bias remaining bearish while monitoring reactions around $64,000.

Bitcoin 4H Structure Flip Signals Bearish Control

Analyzing Bitcoin’s 4H timeframe, analyst Minga noted that weekends, especially Saturdays, typically come with reduced movement. However, current bias leans neutral to slightly bullish, as price is reacting from the weekly lows region. Holding above the blue order block (OB) below remains key, as it keeps the door open for a potential retest of the $67,300 level.

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Despite that short-term bounce, the 4H market structure has already flipped bearish. The recent downside move has also left behind a noticeable imbalance, which the price tends to revisit and fill either over the weekend or heading into early next week.

A successful reclaim of the $67,300 level could trigger a stronger corrective move higher toward $68,800, which now stands as a critical zone for bearish continuation. Thus, any rally into it could present resistance and set the stage for another leg down in line with the broader trend.

There is also a possibility that the price will sweep into the lower boundary of the blue OB before any meaningful move higher. Regardless of the exact path, the imbalance left behind from the previous move is expected to be filled. For that reason, short-term sentiment leans slightly bullish on the lower timeframes, but with a bearish retest before continuation in line with the prevailing downtrend.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

• Monero (XMR) faces short-term selling pressure below key moving averages.
• On-chain activity remains strong despite exchange delistings.
• Support lies at $300 while the immediate resistance sits near $381.

After reaching an all-time high near $798 in January, Monero (XMR) cryptocurrency has experienced significant short-term volatility.

In the last month alone, XMR has retraced over 44% from its recent highs.

The coin is currently trading around $331, after modest gains over the past 24 hours, but still well below its peak.

Growing selling pressure

Recent price action shows that XMR is struggling below key moving averages, including the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA).

These levels are critical as they often guide the sentiment of market participants.

Selling pressure has been compounded by a decrease in futures open interest, which dropped around 11% in a single day.

The long-to-short ratio has also shifted in favour of short positions, indicating a prevailing bearish bias.

If Monero fails to hold above the psychological $315 level, it could open the door for further declines.

Technical analysts suggest that a break below $315 may trigger a deeper correction, potentially testing support near $300.

Despite this, the short-term weakness does not reflect a collapse in user interest.

Strong on-chain activity and adoption

Monero’s core network activity remains remarkably resilient.

Transaction volumes have stayed above pre-2022 levels, even as numerous exchanges have delisted the cryptocurrency.

This suggests that the demand for private transactions continues, independent of mainstream trading platforms.

Darknet marketplaces are increasingly favouring XMR as the payment method of choice.

Almost half of the newly launched privacy-focused markets now operate exclusively on Monero, underscoring its growing adoption in niche sectors.

Even though ransomware operators still prefer Bitcoin (BTC)  due to its liquidity, Monero continues to hold a strong position among users who value privacy.

Despite exchange delistings and enforcement pressure, XMR activity on Monero remains above pre-2022 levels.

Key findings from our latest research:

48% of new darknet markets in 2025 are XMR-only
Most ransomware payments still occur in BTC — liquidity matters
14–15% of… pic.twitter.com/BYPJMrLaJN

— TRM Labs (@trmlabs) February 16, 2026

Network-level observations also show that a small percentage of Monero nodes behave differently from the standard protocol.

These anomalies do not compromise the cryptocurrency’s privacy features but indicate subtle variations in how real-world networks function.

Overall, these factors demonstrate that Monero maintains a strong and active user base, even in the face of regulatory and exchange restrictions.

Monero price forecast

Monero is balancing between short-term price weakness and long-term network resilience.

The immediate support lies around $300. Holding this level is crucial for preventing further downside.

If $300 fails to hold, the next major support is between $290 and $231.

On the upside, Monero needs to reclaim levels above $381 to ease selling pressure and potentially resume its bullish trend.

Short-term traders should be cautious, as momentum indicators suggest room for continued volatility.

Meanwhile, long-term holders can take confidence from the sustained network activity and growing adoption in privacy-focused markets.