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Ethereum price started a downside correction from $4,250. ETH is moving lower below $4,000 and might decline further if it trades below $3,920.
- Ethereum started a downside correction below $4,150 and $4,050.
- The price is trading below $4,050 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
- There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $4,100 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
- The pair could continue to move down if it trades below $3,920.
Ethereum Price Starts Downside Correction
Ethereum price extended gains above the $4,050 level, like Bitcoin. ETH price even surpassed $4,200 before the bears appeared. A high was formed at $4,252 and the price recently started a downside correction.
There was a move below the $4,120 and $4,050 levels. The price dipped below the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $3,708 swing low to the $4,252 high. Moreover, there was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $4,100 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.
Ethereum price is now trading below $4,080 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. If there is another increase, the price could face resistance near the $4,040 level. The next key resistance is near the $4,080 level.
The first major resistance is near the $4,120 level. A clear move above the $4,120 resistance might send the price toward the $4,200 resistance. An upside break above the $4,200 region might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,240 resistance zone or even $4,250 in the near term.
More Losses In ETH?
If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,080 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $3,950 level. The first major support sits near the $3,920 zone and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $3,708 swing low to the $4,252 high.
A clear move below the $3,920 support might push the price toward the $3,880 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,840 region in the near term. The next key support sits at $3,780.
Technical Indicators
Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone.
Major Support Level – $3,920
Major Resistance Level – $4,080
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After favourable Consumer Price Index (CPI) data earlier this week, the softer-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) of 2.4% on Thursday has boosted sentiments for the crypto market. Today, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the PPI data, and it came as a pleasant surprise for the market. Following the release, Bitcoin prices rallied 1% and are trading close to $103K.
US PPI Data to Boost Crypto Markets?
The US CPI dropped to 2.3% in April, indicating a cooling of inflation in the US economy. As the data was confirmed on Tuesday, Bitcoin rallied to fresh highs, promising an all-time high soon. However, as profit-taking posed resistance, BTC prices have now dropped gradually to below $102K.
Today, the US PPI data showed that the final demand in the US rose 2.4% year-on-year in April. The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.5 percent in April. Prices for final demand services decreased 0.7 percent, as per the Labor Department.
Last month, the index had advanced by 2.7 percent year-on-year, and a drop this month demonstrates sustained deceleration for inflation in the US. The US PPI tracks the wholesale-level price pressures and offers clues on whether inflation is truly cooling or merely shifting upstream. Consensus forecasts pegged the US PPI at 2.5-2.7 percent annual gain in April.
While the market has already factored in the consensus forecasts, the below-expectation inflation figures are likely to trigger a rally in the crypto market. The markets remained tense ahead of the data release today, with BTC prices dropping 1.7% over the last 24 hours till today morning. The total crypto market cap has already rallied back above $3.38 trillion on optimism ahead of the data.
Initial Jobless Claims Report Adds Uncertainty
The U.S. Department of Labor’s weekly Initial Jobless Claims report was also scheduled for release today at the same time. This report provides the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week.
As per the department, the advance figure for initial claims was 229,000 in the week ending May 10, unchanged from the previous week’s revised level. For the week ending May 3, the data showed a decrease in initial claims to 229,000 from 241,000 the previous week, indicating a resilient labor market. As the trend sustains, it could be a factor for crypto markets to climb higher in the coming days.
While numerous factors affect the movements in the crypto markets, major digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum have decisively moved into the macro camp. Meaning, changes in inflation, Fed rates, and GDP can have massive implications for them as more and more institutional money flows into the crypto markets.
While the prices remain volatile, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has scooped up 2,250 BTC from the market on a single day on Wednesday. If today’s release indicates a favourable outcome like lesser inflation and a stable labor market, Bitcoin could therefore be entering the bull’s territory again to challenge its all-time high.
The post US PPI Inflation Softens to 2.4%; Crypto Market to Rally? appeared first on CoinGape.
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Bitcoin price and the crypto market in general reacted positively to the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in the United States on Tuesday. Although the reaction was brief, it emphasized BTC’s position in the market as a riskier asset class such that at one point, it stepped above $26,430.
The second largest crypto, Ethereum (ETH) also gained momentum and climbed to highs above $1,850. Ether has since retraced to trade at $1,745 on Wednesday while Bitcoin price dodders at $26,000.
Easing Inflation Triggers Investor Optimism as Bitcoin Price Flips Green
The CPI data carries significant importance in the realm of economic indicators. It provides a gauge for the average directional change in prices that consumers are expected to pay for a basket of goods and services over time.
Investor sentiment saw a boost when the CPI report revealed a softening in the annual inflation rate to 4.9% in April, a figure modestly below the projections put forth by economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
A decrease in the CPI, or a “dropping CPI,” indicates that the average price of these goods and services is declining.
A persistent or significant drop in the CPI can signal deflation, a period of falling prices that encourages investors to spend the surplus income on assets considered to have a higher risk-reward ratio like Bitcoin and crypto.
“When it comes to inflation data, bitcoin embraces its identity as a riskier asset,” Callie Cox, an analyst crypto exchange platform eToro said. “Bitcoin has outperformed the S&P 500 on five out of the last six CPI days – and it’s on track to make it six out of seven with today’s gains.”
This latest CPI data came just a day before the much-awaited Federal Reserve monetary meeting. Over 76% of market watchers, according to a report by CoinDesk, expect the Fed to pause interest rate hikes for the first time since March 2022.
Bitcoin Price on The Move – Whales Stay Put
Bitcoin price faced a brief sell-off last week after the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued two of the most prominent crypto exchanges, Binance and Coinbase.
As reported, altcoins like Cardano, Solana, and Polygon were most affected, with the SEC labeling them as securities. Despite BTC dropping to test support at $25,400, it has remained relatively stable implying its maturity as an asset class.
Santiment, a notable cryptocurrency analytics company, recently disclosed data suggesting that Bitcoin’s major holders, often referred to as ‘whales’—those who own between 100 and 10,000 BTC—are amplifying their positions.
They’ve been purchasing approximately $26 million worth of Bitcoin, or roughly 1,000 Bitcoins, daily since April 9.
As #altcoin madness has ensued, there quietly is a #bullish divergence between #Bitcoin‘s accumulating whales and falling price. With whale holdings moving up by ~1K $BTC per day while prices fall, there is reason to believe a strong rebound can occur. https://t.co/Ol0cK5VhPE pic.twitter.com/FeHPqqJx7o
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) June 11, 2023
This pattern started when Bitcoin hovered around the $28,000 price point, hinting that these significant players are capitalizing on the price drop. Such behavior may predict a prospective bullish turn in the near term.
Insights from Glassnode, another leading on-chain analytics platform, affirm Santiment’s bullish outlook for BTC. Its data shows that whales are sitting tight, unbothered by the ongoing crypto crackdown.
The company’s data highlights that the amount of Bitcoin moved to exchanges by long-standing investors is remarkably minimal, at just 0.004%. In other words, this reveals the unflappable inaction of this group of investors, despite the ongoing market fluctuations and regulatory challenges faced by prominent exchanges.
The percentage of #Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply sent to Exchanges remains extremely quiet at 0.004%.
This highlights the profound inactivity of the cohort amidst elevated market distress, remaining indifferent to the #Binance and #Coinbase regulatory charges. pic.twitter.com/yWfdQHu4Ca
— glassnode (@glassnode) June 11, 2023
Meanwhile, the daily chart confirms the building uptrend with a buy signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator.
A break and a daily close above $26,000, the short-term resistance, would call more retail investors into the market. Retail traders are often the weaker hands in the market and endure the most losses during market downturns.
Bitcoin price must sustain the trend above the 50-day EMA (in red) for bulls to have a fighting chance at breaking the descending trendline hurdle for a renewed move to $28,000 and $26,000, respectively.
On the downside, failure to uphold support at $26,000 may invalidate the anticipated bullish move to $30,000 and allow for a retracement with support at $25,400 and $24,000 in mind.
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Key Takeaways
- Number of addresses containing one Bitcoin or more crosses one million
- Bitcoin relatively subdued despite trading at 2-month low
- Two prominent market markers are scaling back activity in the space
- Active addresses show notable decline in last week
We wrote last week that nearly one million addresses on the Bitcoin network now contain at least one Bitcoin. That mark has now been passed, as the below chart shows.
As dramatic as that sounds, it doesn’t equate to one million people, as aggregate wallets exist (such as exchange wallets), not to mention the fact that one person often has more than one address.
Looking beyond this quirky threshold, there has not been too much of note occurring in the markets in recent weeks. The market has been somewhat soft, Bitcoin trading at $27,300 as I write this, a two-month low. It is down 7% over the past ten days, but that is not exactly a dramatic decline by Bitcoin’s standards.
Looking at activity on the network does show more notable developments, however. The below chart shows a perceptible break downwards when analysing the 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) of active addresses on the network.
It is the biggest decline in activity over the last year. It is not immediately obvious what is causing it, but with the 7-day EMA running roughly between 800,000 and 1,000,000 addresses, the fall towards 600,000 does stand out.
Regarding possible catalysts, there has not been much beyond the continued big story of the year: the regulatory crackdown from the US. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said the exchange would consider the UAE as an international hub, as the company reels from the punitive measures levelled against the industry in recent times – including a Wells notice served to Coinbase in March.
Congressman Brad Sherman was the latest lawmaker to slam the industry, making some startling comparisons that haven’t exactly gone down well in the industry:
“Peru is way ahead of us (the US) in cocaine production. China is way ahead of us in organ harvesting. We don’t need to keep up on those things and we don’t need to keep up on crypto”.
Regardless of whether you agree or not, the industry is feeling the pinch of this hostile stance in the US. Last week, two prominent crypto market makers, Jane Street and Jump Crypto, announced they were scaling back their market making activity.
This amounts to a blow to markets that are already very thin. Indeed, we have written multiple times what role the thin liquidy has played in Bitcoin’s run-up this year. In April, crypto profits, prices all hit their highest marks since June 2022. But so did volatility, as there has been a dearth of capital in the space ever since Alameda, one of the largest market makers, evaporated amid the FTX crash in November. And that liquidity is only going to get thinner again with the news out of Jane Street and Jump Crypto.
With thin liquidity comes high volatility, as it takes less capital to move prices. The below chart shows that volatility has fallen off since March, but is still trading above 40% on an annualised basis and up markedly since the start of the year.
While Bitcoin’s price fall from close to $30,000 to where it currently sits at $27,200 is nothing to write home about, the shallow nature of the markets hint that more volatility could be on the way.