Ethereum saw a notable decline in its price over the last week, and the weekend culmination pulled the price back towards levels not seen in over one month. The movement tracks with the established bearish trend of the month of June and continues to show mounting sell pressure on the cryptocurrency. However, with this decline has emerged a trend similar to what was seen back in 2021, right before the market picked up and saw the beginning of the altcoin season.

Ethereum Price Crash Similar To 2021

Looking at the current Ethereum price action and that of what was seen back in Q2 2021, there have been some striking similarities. Most especially, how the Ethereum price has performed in the month of June so far has been the same as what happened back in June 2021.

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In 2021, the Ethereum price began the month of June trading above $2,600. However, as the month went on, the altcoin suffered multiple declines and crashed below $2,000 before it was over. Eventually, the price would find its bottom somewhere around $1,600 before the decline was over.

Fast forward four years to the year 2025, and the month of June is showing the same trend. June 2025 had begun with the Ethereum price trending above $2,600 before the bears took control. Since then, the altcoin has crashed by more than 20%, and looks primed for more.

Using the historical performance, it would suggest that the Ethereum price decline is far from over. If there is a repeat of June 2021, then Ethereum could suffer another 20% crash before the month of June is over, to find its bottom somewhere between $1,600 and $1,700.

The Trigger For Altcoin Season

Given that Ethereum is the largest altcoin in the market, it is naturally the trigger for the altcoin season. Looking back on 2021, the altcoin season began when the Ethereum price began to rally. But the recovery did not begin until the month of July, and eventually lasted into the month of November.

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So far, investors are already looking positively toward July 2025, as there have been rumors of a rate cut. This is expected to trigger a market rally for risk assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, coupled with the fact that a resolution to the Iran-Israel war could be in the works.

If this trend holds, then it is possible that the Ethereum price would begin to rally in July. As seen in 2021, Ethereum would end up rising over 200% in the course of five months, to put in a new all-time high in the month of November.

Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

With the recent Ethereum price trend, a crypto analyst has pointed out that the altcoin could be looking to stage a similar rally to what was seen with Bitcoin back in 2021. Crypto analyst TradingShot pointed out the similarities in a recent analysis and showing where the price could go if it does play out the same way.

Ethereum Looks Like Bitcoin Did In 2021

In the analysis posted on TradingView, crypto analyst TradingShot showed how this Ethereum cycle movement looked similar to Bitcoin’s 2021 cycle movement. The first of this was recovery from a major price crash that led to new cycle lows for the cryptocurrency, before staging a recovery that pushed it toward new highs.

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For Bitcoin, the crash happened when the COVID-19 lockdown was announced. Following this, the Bitcoin price had fallen more than 50% from above $9,000 to less than $4,000 in less than one month. However, after this, the Bitcoin price rebounded from the cycle lows, crossing the 1-week MA50, and then breaking the lower high trendline, and going on to reach new all-time highs.

For Ethereum, the crypto analyst pointed to the price crash triggered by Donald Trump’s tariff wars as being similar to Bitcoin’s COVID crash. After Donald Trump announced tariffs on other countries, the Ethereum price also crashed by a large margin, going from above $2,400 to below $1,500 in less than a month. This has been dubbed the ‘Trade War Crash’, and the altcoin is still reeling from the decline.

Currently, the Ethereum price is stuck at the point where it is still trying to break above the 1-week MA50, which is now the major level to beat to confirm this trend. Just like Bitcoin, it has also seen the formation of major resistance at the lower highs, and this sits right at the $4,200 level. This means the Ethereum price still has around a 50% rally to complete before it confirms a similar trend to Bitcoin.

How High ETH Price Could Go If It Plays Out

If Ethereum does reclaim the 1W 50MA and then breaks the lower highs at $4,200, confirming this trend, then the resulting rally could be exceptional. For example, after breaking the lower highs, the Bitcoin price went on to reach new all-time highs of $69,000 in 2021. This means that the price went from below $4,000 to $69,000 in the space of a year.

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A similar rally would mean that the Ethereum price would rise above $10,000. Taking the same timelines into position, it would put ETH at this price sometime in 2026, a year from when the Trade Wars crash had occurred. A closer parabolic rally and an imitation of Bitcoin’s 1,700% rally would mean a price tag above $15,000 for the second-largest cryptocurrency in the space.

Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market have bounced back again with the BTC price moving closer to $60,000 as the US CPI inflation data for July comes out ahead this week on August 15. With altcoins more prone to macro events, Ethereum and other altcoins have staged even stronger rallies gaining over 4%.

Bitcoin, Ethereum Stage Short Cover Rally

Just ahead of the crucial CPI inflation data release, the top two cryptocurrencies are showing strength in a major short-cover rally. In the last 24 hours, more than $177 million have been liquidated with $91 million in short liquidations and nearly $86 million in long liquidations.

As per the reports, the US CPI data is likely to show a surge in inflation fueling concerns about whether or not the Fed would proceed for a rate cut in September. Market estimates show that inflation for July is likely to surge by 0.2% against the 0.1% drop last month.

Over the past few weeks, the Bitcoin price has been oscillating in the range of $50,000-$60,000. Last weekend, a Bitcoin Death Cross signal appeared on the technical chart hinting at strong bearish sentiment. Some market analysts expect that BTC can take one more dive under $50,000 before resuming the next bull run.

As of press time, the Ethereum price is trading 4.70% up at $2,661 and a market cap of $320 billion. However, today’s short covering could be a dead cat bounce as technical indicators for altcoins don’t appear strong as well! Additionally, the massive ETH whale transfers with ICO time accumulation sends a negative market sentiment.

ETH/BTC Pair Rebounds

10X Research notes that ever since the September 2022 Merge event, the ETH/BTC pair has been moving in a downward trading channel and is experiencing a rebound ahead of the CPI release. While Ethereum developers continue to focus on building scaling solutions and the upcoming Pectra upgrade, the asset remains largely prone to macro developments in the global market.

“Previous upgrades, such as the Merge and Dencun, have had minimal impact on Ether’s price. Instead, ETH’s value continues to be primarily driven by macroeconomic factors like inflation,” noted 10x Research citing the below chart and similar observations during past events.

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Bhushan Akolkar

Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast and holds a good flair in understanding financial markets. His interest in economics and finance draw his attention towards the new emerging Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrency markets. He is continuously in a learning process and keeps himself motivated by sharing his acquired knowledge. In free time he reads thriller fictions novels and sometimes explore his culinary skills.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.