According to a new analysis shared by crypto analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino, Bitcoin has just closed the quarterly chart with a perfected TD9 sell setup. This is actually interesting, because it adds a possibly long timeline before Bitcoin can reach any further significant price target. 

Most of Bitcoin’s daily candles in the past seven days have shown mild upward pressure supported by positive sentiment from various technical analyses. However, according to the TD9 setup, Bitcoin could take up to four years to reach $149,000.

TD9 Setup Hints At Slow Climb To $149,000

The TD9 is a component of the TD Sequential indicator, which is often used to identify trend exhaustion, potential reversals, and possible trend changes. Interestingly, what makes this particular signal notable at this point is that it is now projecting a TD Risk level of $149,490, which is essentially a price target for Bitcoin. But if past patterns on the TD9 indicator are anything to go by, getting there might take much longer than bulls expect.

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In 2017, a similar perfected TD9 appeared during Bitcoin’s first rally to $20,000. At the time, the TD Risk was projected at $35,000. It wasn’t until late 2020, roughly four years later, that Bitcoin finally reached and broke above that level. A prior occurrence in 2014 offered the same story. 

Back then in 2014, the TD9 setup projected a TD Risk of $2,400, but it took approximately 3.5 years to cross that threshold. Now, despite the bullish sentiment today, this historical precedent suggests it could take similar years before the $149,490 target being currently projected by the TD Risk is finally tested or breached.

The 3-month candlestick price chart shown above provides a visual analysis of this projection. From the 2014 cycle low, it took 915 days across 10 quarterly candles for Bitcoin to reach its next high. After the 2017 signal, it took 1,096 days (or 12 quarterly candlesticks) for BTC to finally surpass the projected TD Risk level. 

Bitcoin Price Action On Gradual Climb

Bitcoin has spent the past seven days in a steady but modest uptrend, rising approximately 1.5% from a weekly low around $105,430 to the current range between $109,240 and $109,600. During this move, Bitcoin’s price action tested and retested resistance in the $108,200 to $108,800 zone several times in the past 24 hours. However, it ultimately pushed higher, showing a slow but stable bullish undertone.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $109,330, up by 2% in the past 24 hours. It is currently about a 36% move away from reaching the $149,490 price target. However, if Tony Severino’s timeline on the TD9 Risk setup does play out, it wouldn’t be until sometime around July 2029 before Bitcoin reaches the $149,490 price target.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

In this episode of NewsBTC’s all-new daily technical analysis videos, we are looking at the Bitcoin price monthly chart and the DXY Dollar Currency Index ahead of the monthly close.

Take a look at the video below.

VIDEO: Bitcoin Price Analysis (BTCUSD): August 30, 2022

We are coming down to the wire here in the month of August, with less than 48 hours remaining until the monthly candle close. The month is especially critical for a number of pivotal reasons of which we’ll review in the video and in the text and charts below.

The Terrifying TD9 Buy Setup On Monthly Timeframes

The first and most important factor weighing over the next couple of days in the crypto market, is a looming TD9 buy setup. The TD Sequential is a market timing indicator. Simply reaching a 9-count is enough for a buy setup. However, the signal is much stronger when the series is perfected. 

This can only happen with a sweep of the current low below around $17,500. It would also require a breakdown of all-time high resistance turned support and a breakdown of a decade-long monthly trend line.

    

A perfected TD9 setup would result in losing this trend line | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Could A Hidden Bullish Divergence Save The Day?

Bitcoin price continues to rest on the lower Bollinger Band – a first for the first ever cryptocurrency on the high timeframe chart. What we don’t want to see is price action close outside the lower band, which could lead to an explosive down-move.

Despite this risk, there are several signs that a bottom could also be in. The monthly momentum on the LMACD histogram and Relative Strength Index could be signaling a hidden bullish divergence. Stochastic is also nearing a turning point after reaching oversold conditions – another recurring bottom setup, especially when combined with a breakout of a downtrend resistance line.

Is this enough for a bottom? | Source: LTCBTC on TradingView.com

Or Will The DXY Defeat BTC Bulls Yet Again?

Remember, one half of the BTCUSD trading pair is the dollar. This means that when the dollar is strong, the BTC side of the trading pair takes a beating.

The best way to gauge the strength of the dollar is through the DXY – the dollar currency index – which is a weighted basket of top world currencies trading against the dollar. Much like Bitcoin price action is reaching oversold conditions with a possible hidden bullish divergence, the DXY is overbought and potentially forming a bearish divergence on each of the same indicators: RSI, LMACD, and Stoch.

Are dollar bears waiting for a chance to strike? | Source: LTCETH on TradingView.com

Comparing Currencies: Bitcoin Versus The Dollar

The similarities to the 2014 and 2015 bear market versus the most recent bear market in 2018, appear to be due to the dollar strength. The last time the DXY was this overbought was during what’s known as crypto’s worst bear market ever.

Plotting BTCUSD behind the DXY we can take a closer look at the possible correlation – or anti-correlation. The last extended up-move in the DXY is what led to such a lengthy bear phase in crypto. Interestingly, the Bitcoin plot at some points appears to be acting as dynamic support and resistance for the DXY, perhaps showing off an anti-correlated relationship through the trading pair.

Bitcoin has bottomed each time the DXY pushed above the BTCUSD plot line. Bear markets arrive during DXY upmoves, and Bitcoin performs well when DXY moves sideways, and the best when DXY is falling. With the DXY potentially at oversold conditions on the monthly timeframe, a pullback could be near or even a complete trend change that ultimately lifts Bitcoin out of its bear market.

Bitcoin has worked as dynamic support and resistance for the DXY chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

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Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com