Bitcoin price started a fresh increase and cleared the $74,650 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains above the $75,500 level.

• Bitcoin managed to stay above $73,500 and started a fresh increase.
• The price is trading above $74,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
• There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $74,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair might extend gains if it stays above the $73,650 and $73,300 levels.

Bitcoin Price Eyes Upside Break

Bitcoin price found support near $73,200 and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $73,650 and $74,000 resistance levels.

There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $74,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A high was formed at $75,500, and the price is now correcting gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $73,310 swing low to the $75,500 high.

Bitcoin is now trading above $74,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $73,800, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $75,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $75,500 level. A close above the $75,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $76,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $77,400 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $78,000.

Another Drop In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $75,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $74,150 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $73,310 swing low to the $75,500 high. The first major support is near the $73,650 level.

The next support is now near the $73,300 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $72,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $71,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $73,650, followed by $73,300.

Major Resistance Levels – $75,000 and $75,500.

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Ethereum (ETH) slid on Tuesday, trading just above $2,080 as the wider crypto market weakened — a level well shy of a critical threshold identified by expert Ali Martinez as the trigger for a sustained macro bull run. 

In a breakdown shared on social media platform X, Martinez argued that reclaiming a realized price near $2,500 would mark the moment the average holder returns to profit and signal the end of the market’s “cooling period,” opening the door to a renewed, extended rally.

Technical Crossroads For Ethereum

Martinez framed the current price action in technical terms, suggesting Ethereum could be forming an ascending triangle. In that scenario, he places a “line in the sand” at roughly $1,800, and notes that this figure overlaps closely with the 0.80 MVRV pricing band at about $1,880. 

MVRV, or Market Value to Realized Value, compares an asset’s market price with the average price paid for the asset by holders; Martinez describes the 0.80 band as an “Average Receipt” indicator that has historically marked cycle bottoms. 

When the band is reached, he said, Ethereum and the broader cryptocurrency market is often in a state of “extreme pain,” a phase in which selling tends to exhaust itself and long-term holders step in.

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Beyond the ascending triangle scenario, Martinez acknowledged a more bearish alternative. If Ethereum’s price is actually confined within a parallel channel rather than an ascending triangle, he warned that a deeper reset is possible. 

In that case, he is watching the channel’s outer limits at approximately $1,550 and $1,070. To support these observations, he pointed to the URPD — the UTXO Realized Price Distribution, a tool that maps the prices at which existing ETH last moved. 

Martinez calls this distribution “the market’s memory,” because it identifies levels where large clusters of coins were acquired and where defending buy pressure is likely to appear.

$4,900 Near‑Term And $5,900 Longer‑Term 

According to Martinez’s URPD read, the most significant buy walls below the 0.80 MVRV band are at roughly $1,584, $1,238, and $1,089. These price clusters, if tested, could generate meaningful support as holders who bought at those levels attempt to defend their positions. 

Martinez believes accumulation is likely to occur in the “low‑thousands”; however, he asserted that the “start engine” for the next major upward leg is Ethereum reclaiming its realized price at $2,500. 

If Ethereum can break and sustain above $2,500, Martinez says the technical and on‑chain signals would point toward a “target‑rich environment.” 

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His analysis places a near-term upside toward $4,900— a level he ties to the structure of the ascending triangle — and ultimately toward the 2.40 MVRV band, near $5,900, which would represent a new all-time high for the Ethereum price. 

Reaching those zones, in the expert’s view, would confirm that average holders are back in profit and that the market has shifted decisively from accumulation to a broader speculative phase.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

The US-Iran ceasefire, Bitcoin, and the entire crypto market have quickly become intertwined as easing geopolitical tensions sparked a sharp move across digital asset markets. As headlines shifted from threats of escalation to a temporary pause, traders reacted instantly—but whether this momentum can hold remains uncertain.

Bitcoin Leads Crypto Market Rally Amid Ceasefire Relief

Markets turned optimistic after US President Donald Trump signaled a two-week pause in military action, tied to conditions around the Strait of Hormuz. This marked a notable shift from his earlier warnings of large-scale destruction targeting Iranian infrastructure, which raised fears of prolonged conflict, especially as the deadline set for April 7 approached.

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However, as news of the conditional pause in hostilities emerged, Bitcoin moved decisively, climbing from the $66,000 region to above $69,000 within hours of the announcement. The earlier phase of the conflict had injected volatility into global markets. With the Strait of Hormuz—responsible for around 20% of global oil supply—under threat, investors had moved cautiously, rotating into defensive positions. Crypto initially saw choppy price action during this period, with Bitcoin briefly slipping below key support levels near $65,000 as fears of escalation intensified.

However, the shift toward a two-week ceasefire and the prospect of negotiations in Islamabad quickly reversed that trend. Ethereum followed Bitcoin’s lead, rising roughly 4% to reclaim the $3,400 level, while assets like Solana and XRP posted gains between 5% and 8% during the same window. The total crypto market capitalization added tens of billions of dollars in value, signaling a broad-based recovery.

This reaction highlights how closely crypto markets are now tied to macro developments. The reduction in immediate geopolitical risk removed a key overhang, allowing capital to flow back into higher-risk assets. The rally was not driven by internal crypto fundamentals alone, but by a sudden improvement in the external environment.

Crypto Rally Faces Uncertainty As Ceasefire Conditions Remain Fragile

Despite the strong rebound, the sustainability of this crypto rally remains uncertain due to the conditional nature of the ceasefire. The agreement hinges on unresolved issues, including access through the Strait of Hormuz and broader diplomatic negotiations, leaving room for renewed volatility.

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The conflict, which has lasted over 40 days since late February, has already demonstrated how quickly sentiment can shift. Earlier threats of large-scale infrastructure strikes and warnings of severe retaliation had pushed markets into risk-off mode. That dynamic has not disappeared; it has only been temporarily paused.

The broader concern is that the current rally is tied to a single catalyst: de-escalation. If negotiations stall or tensions rise again, the same macro forces that triggered this surge could quickly reverse it. 

In essence, the market is reacting to reduced immediate risk rather than a permanent resolution. The crypto sector has gained from the shift in narrative, but its next move will depend on whether that narrative holds. As negotiations progress and deadlines evolve, traders will watch closely and adjust their positions accordingly.

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

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