Bitcoin slid hard over the weekend and stayed low into Monday, leaving traders on edge and pushing many to reduce risk.

Prices slipped from roughly $84,000 to about $74,600 in a matter of days, a drop that erased a chunk of recent gains and forced quick reassessments across markets.

Nervousness around Federal Reserve leadership, rising job worries, and fresh geopolitical flashpoints all piled up at once.

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Average ETF Price Above Market

According to Coinglass, the combined assets of US spot Bitcoin ETFs sit near $113 billion, while reports note they hold around 1.28 million BTC.

Based on those figures, the typical ETF buying price works out to an average of roughly $87,830 per coin — well above current trading levels.

That gap means many ETF positions are showing losses on paper right now. Some funds kept buying earlier and are holding positions that are underwater.

BTC is trading below the U.S. ETFs avg cost basis after the 2nd & 3rd biggest outflow weeks ever (last week and week before)

(and last week’s outflow will increase after IBIT reports friday’s numbers tomorrow)

this means the average bitcoin ETF purchase is underwater pic.twitter.com/XowzrnBaSM

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) February 2, 2026

Outflows Pick Up

Over the last two weeks, investors pulled close to $3 billion from the 11 spot ETFs, with one week seeing $1.50 billion leave and the prior week $1.30 billion, according to CoinGlass.

Those moves suggest some market participants are locking in gains or cutting exposure after the recent run-up.

At the same time, cumulative ETF inflows remain materially lower than earlier peaks; buying has not fully come back even as some holders remain steady.

Technical Signals And Bear Fears

Reports note that spot BTC is down roughly 40% from its October peak while ETF AUM has fallen by about 31%. That divergence has analysts warning that sustained weak demand could push Bitcoin into a deeper downtrend.

Technical charts show longer-term sell pressure building in certain measures. If demand fails to reappear, momentum could carry prices lower and extend selling across crypto markets.

Policy, Politics, And Market Mood

Market watchers point to extra uncertainty around monetary policy and geopolitics as fuel for the recent moves. Reports have disclosed that the proposed US Clarity Act stalled in Washington.

At the same time, headlines about tensions in the Middle East and trade friction added to a rush for traditional safe havens like gold and the dollar.

Even a hint of policy change matters: US President Donald Trump’s choice for the next Fed chair was discussed by investors as another factor shaping expectations.

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Liquidity And The Road Ahead

Institutional holders have not all capitulated. Many have been described as holding on, which can cushion sharp drops.

But when the average cost basis for major ETF holders is above the current market price, confidence can be fragile.

Liquidity has thinned in certain windows, and that makes price swings larger. A recovery requires renewed buying from both retail and big investors, otherwise sellers may dictate direction for longer.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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A crypto analyst has shared a technical analysis for the Bitcoin price, predicting a foreboding crash to $41,000. According to the analysis, Bitcoin has formed an unexpected harmonic “Shark” pattern that could extend its downtrend. While a drop to this low level could amplify the fear and uncertainty already plaguing the market, the analyst highlights that the appearance of this pattern is usually bullish. 

Shark Pattern Signals Bitcoin Price Crash To $41,000

Crypto analyst Tony Severino disclosed on X this Wednesday that Bitcoin is forming a rare bullish harmonic pattern on the weekly timeframe. Severino warns that rather than worrying about BTC whale activity, traders should not overlook this distinct pattern, describing it as a “Shark in the water.” 

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In his accompanying chart, the analyst traced the Shark pattern, showing an ABCD harmonic structure. He set his primary target at “D,” which aligns with the $41,000 level. Based on the pattern’s projected trajectory, the analyst believes Bitcoin is likely to face more downside. He predicts that the cryptocurrency could still crash to around $41,000, eliminating more than 55% of its current price of over $91,000.  

Notably, Severino highlighted that harmonic patterns, such as the one observed in the BTC chart, often rely on specific Fibonacci ratios. As a result, the figures observed in the current setup are hard to ignore. While his initial projections are significantly bearish, the analyst highlights that a harmonic Shark pattern is traditionally considered a bullish reversal signal once the final leg completes. 

Bitcoin’s Next Move Stuck Between Bearish And Bullish

Another crypto analyst, Ted Pillows, has shared a technical analysis of the Bitcoin price outlook. However, his report outlines a bearish and bullish outcome depending on how BTC’s price moves in the coming days. 

Pillows’ forecast centers on the levels Bitcoin must reclaim to avoid a deeper price correction. Right now, the cryptocurrency is trading above $91,500 after falling by approximately 20% over the past month. Bitcoin has also faced significant negative sentiment despite its recent price recovery. 

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In his post, Pillows noted that after breaking back above $89,000, Bitcoin is now moving higher, approaching a heavy resistance range between $93,000 and $94,000. The analyst has identified this region as a critical decision point that will determine the cryptocurrency’s next direction. 

His chart analysis outlines two potential outcomes. If Bitcoin reclaims and stays above the resistance zone, it could open the door for momentum to push its price above $100,000. Surpassing this threshold could also see the cryptocurrency climb toward $106,000 and $108,000.

On the other hand, if BTC rejects the $93,000-$94,000 range, Pillows expects a retreat toward $88,000. Should this level fail as well, he has set a lower support zone between $80,000 and $82,000. Further decline below this range could drag Bitcoin’s price down toward $78,600. 

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com