Key takeaways

• BTC is down 1% in the last 24 hours and is now trading below $71,000.
• The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the inflation fears continue to weigh on market sentiments. 

Bitcoin (BTC) is starting the week on shaky ground, hovering near the critical $70,700 support level on Monday. A decisive break below this zone could open the door to a broader correction. 

Geopolitical tensions dent risk appetite

The primary catalyst behind the poor performance is the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran. 

Efforts to reach a resolution between the United States and Iran ended without progress, following talks in Pakistan that failed to produce a ceasefire agreement. US Vice President JD Vance described the proposal as a final offer, which Iran rejected, with state media citing excessive demands.

Furthermore, US President Donald Trump announced plans for a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to disrupt a fragile ceasefire. At the same time, ongoing Israeli military activity in Lebanon has heightened fears of a wider regional escalation.

Macroeconomic pressures are also limiting Bitcoin’s upside. Fresh data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed inflation accelerating sharply, with the Consumer Price Index rising 0.9% in March—its fastest monthly increase in four years. On an annual basis, inflation climbed to 3.3%, up from 2.4% in February.

The data has prompted investors to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, reinforcing a more hawkish outlook. 

Despite the current market conditions, institutional demand provided a degree of support last week. Data from SoSoValue shows spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of $786.31 million, building on modest gains from the prior week. 

If the institutional inflow increases, it could help stabilize prices and potentially drive a rebound in the near term.

Bitcoin price outlook: BTC approaches a crucial support level

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as Bitcoin is approaching a crucial support level. 

Bitcoin recently found support near its 200-week exponential moving average around $68,100 and posted a modest weekly gain. As of Monday, BTC is trading just above $70,700.

If bullish momentum builds, Bitcoin could target a move toward $74,500, which marks its 2025 yearly low. Indicators suggest early signs of stabilization, with the Relative Strength Index trending upward and the MACD signaling a bullish crossover on the weekly chart.

However, Bitcoin continues to face resistance from key moving averages, including the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day levels.

If the daily candle closes above the 50-day EMA near $70,700, it could open the path toward $72,500 and beyond. 

On the downside, failure to hold this level could see BTC slide toward the $65,800 support zone.