A lone green candle on XRP’s three-week chart is drawing attention from at least one analyst who believes it could be the start of something bigger than a routine bounce. 

Crypto analyst CW, posting on X, flagged a bullish candlestick formation on the XRP/USD 3W chart that he says signals the opening of a full-scale uptrend. One that, if his cycle analysis holds, with the setup pointing first to a retest of the all-time high zone and then, in an extreme scenario, to $21.5.

New Uptrend Is Starting On The 3-Week Chart

Technical analysis of XRP’s price action on the 3-week candlestick timeframe chart is revealing an interesting signal. The signal itself is straightforward: a green candlestick has been printed on XRP’s three-week chart at a time when the price is sitting just above $1.38. 

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The analysis comes from crypto analyst CW, and according to this projection, this could be the first bullish wick that shows sellers are losing control on this higher timeframe. 

It is important to note that the rally hasn’t kicked off yet, and XRP is still looking to solidify a break above $1.4. Also, indicators are yet to print full-scale uptrend signals, but according to the analyst, these bullish reversal signals will appear soon.

Those sub-indicators are visually consistent with a momentum oscillator cycling between oversold and overbought extremes shown in the chart below. They have printed blue dots at every significant XRP low since 2014, including the floors that preceded the 2017 and 2021 rallies. A new blue dot appears to be forming now.

Multi-Phase Cycle That Sends XRP Price To $21.5

The chart attached to the analysis lays out two cycle structures divided into four separate phases. In the first cycle, Phase 1 was the initial markup, Phase 2 a massive correction, Phase 3 a prolonged descending consolidation inside a symmetrical triangle, and Phase 4 was a breakout.

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The technical analysis places the current cycle as tracing the same sequence almost precisely. Phase 2 printed as the post-2021 bear market decline, Phase 3 as the multi-year compression between 2022 and 2024, and the surge to $3.65 as the first part of Phase 4 in the new cycle. 

XRP is now, by this reading, still playing out Phase 4 into a move that overshoots everything that came before, despite being down by about 62% from its all-time high price. Interestingly, the chart also labels the first upside objective as a return to this all-time high. 

Therefore, before any talk of double-digit prices, XRP would first need to reclaim the zone around its prior record of $3.65. CW’s final projection is a cycle top at $21.5, which he ties to the Fibonacci 6.618 extension level. That level is marked as TP2 on the chart, with the all-time high zone serving as TP1.

Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

Volatility has stuck the crypto market as the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum trend to the downside. The two largest cryptocurrencies are reacting negatively and with volatility to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, a metric used to measure inflation.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $21,600 after a rejection north of $22,000 and a 4% loss in the last 24 hours. Ethereum (ETH) trades at $1,640 with a 6% loss over the same period after an aggressive crash from a major resistance area near $1,8000.

Both cryptocurrencies made a sudden move to the downside before the CPI print. Bitcoin quickly dropped to around $21,300 while Ethereum crashed to $1,640, the current price action is filling into those downside moves and hints at a potential further downside for the cryptocurrencies.

CPI Prints Beats Expectations, What Does It Mean For Bitcoin?

The U.S. CPI print came in at 8.3% with a core CPI rising to 6.3%, expectations for the former stood at 8.1%. In other words, the market was expecting inflation to be lower than today’s metrics with the hopes of relief in monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).

A low CPI combined with a slowdown in the economy might have provided the financial institution with room to relax on its interest rate hike. However, market participants are pricing in another 75 basis points (bps) hike for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

There is a small chance, according to recent market expectations, of a more aggressive from the Fed with a 100-bps hike in interest rates. The current monetary policy of the financial institution has broken havoc across global markets and risk-on assets, such as Bitcoin.

A 100 bps hike might push BTC’s price down into its yearly lows and beyond. Economist and crypto analyst Alex Krüger said the following about the CPI print and its implication on the U.S. Fed monetary policy:

Dreadful core CPI numbers. The 0.3% MoM miss should delay any Fed pivot by at least two months. Shorts should have it easy for a while, BTD can wait.

What Could Prevent Further Losses For Bitcoin And Ethereum

The coming days are bound to see more volatility as the CPI print, market expectations about a hawkish Fed, combined with the upcoming Ethereum “Merge”. The event that will complete this network transition to Proof-of-Stake (PoS), “The Merge” has caused a lot of hype across the crypto market.

A portion of market participants is expecting the Ethereum price to operate under a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event, others expect a breach of the resistance around $2,000, and others expect the price to continue dropping from current levels.

The latter has led to a spike in upside liquidity, as traders continue to short ETH and getting “squeezed” by larger investors. This could provide ETH with the ammunition to reclaim the area around $1,700, as the market heads into “The Merge”.