Tom Lee used a Hong Kong conference stage to argue that Ethereum may be close to a cyclical turn, pointing to historical market analogs and on-chain cost-basis data that, in his view, suggest the selloff has reached exhaustion.

Speaking at the 3rd Futu Expo 2026 in Hong Kong on March 13–14, Lee said Bitmine advisor Tom DeMark had identified a striking resemblance between Ethereum’s recent price action and two major S&P 500 declines: the 1987 crash and the 2011 selloff. Lee described the setup as unusually tight.

Is The Ethereum Bottom In?

“Tom DeMark, he’s a legendary market timer, and he’s provided an analysis to us that says Ethereum, in the last few months, especially since October, is really mirroring what happened to the S&P 500 in 2011 and what happened to the S&P 500 in 1987,” Lee said. “If you were involved in US markets, both times marked major declines in the S&P. Well, according to him, there’s a 93% correlation to what Ethereum’s doing today to what the S&P did in 1987.”

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That comparison is doing a lot of work in Lee’s argument. If the 1987 analog holds, he said, Ethereum would have already bottomed on March 7. If the 2011 comparison is the better fit, the market is bottoming now. In either case, Lee’s conclusion was the same: “So using his analysis, we think we’re at the bottom or exiting the crypto winter now.”

He did not leave the case resting on chart symmetry alone. Lee also pointed to Ethereum’s realized price, the on-chain metric that estimates the average acquisition cost of coins based on their last movement on the blockchain. In his telling, that figure now sits at $2,241 for ETH, giving investors a way to judge how deeply underwater the average holder has become.

Lee said the pattern at prior lows is revealing. In 2022, Ethereum fell to a 39% discount to realized price. In 2025, the discount reached 21% before ETH turned higher. “Currently, we’re at 22%,” he said, adding that the market is now sitting in roughly the same zone where last year’s reversal began. “So we’re at the level where in 2025, Ethereum started to turn higher.”

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In other words, Lee’s thesis is that Ethereum does not need a pristine macro backdrop or a fresh narrative cycle to stabilize; it only needs to revisit the kind of holder pain that has historically marked exhaustion. By his measure, that threshold is already here.

TOM LEE:
THE ETHEREUM BOTTOM IS IN

Bitmine x TOM DEMARK mapped ETH against past S&P 500 crash recoveries.

The structure now closely matches 1987 and 2011, both major cycle bottoms.

93% correlation to 1987
Match to 2011 bottom
Realized price: $2,241
ETH ~22%… pic.twitter.com/62TZscjChe

— BMNR Bullz (@BMNRBullz) March 19, 2026

He also tried to zoom out from the immediate drawdown and re-anchor ETH in a longer time horizon. “Before you lose any hope, keep in mind that over the last 10 years, Ethereum has outperformed every other asset class over the past decade,” Lee said. “In the last 10 years, Ethereum’s return is 49,000%. That means almost 490 times your money.”

Lee contrasted that with Bitcoin’s 11,000% gain over the same span and even with Nvidia, which he called “the single best stock in the US,” saying it had returned 65 times investors’ money.

At press time, ETH traded at $2,147.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Christian’s journey with the written word began long before the age of Bitcoin. In the hallowed halls of academia, he honed his craft as a feature writer for his college paper. This early love for storytelling paved the way for a successful stint as an editor at a data engineering firm, where his first-month essay win funded a months-long supply of doggie and kitty treats – a testament to his dedication to his furry companions (more on that later).

Christian then roamed the world of journalism, working at newspapers in Canada and even South Korea. He finally settled down at a local news giant in his hometown in the Philippines for a decade, becoming a total news junkie. But then, something new caught his eye: cryptocurrency. It was like a treasure hunt mixed with storytelling – right up his alley!

So, he landed a killer gig at NewsBTC, where he’s one of the go-to guys for all things crypto. He breaks down this confusing stuff into bite-sized pieces, making it easy for anyone to understand (he salutes his management team for teaching him this skill).

Think Christian’s all work and no play? Not a chance! When he’s not at his computer, you’ll find him indulging his passion for motorbikes. A true gearhead, Christian loves tinkering with his bike and savoring the joy of the open road on his 320-cc Yamaha R3. Once a speed demon who hit 120mph (a feat he vowed never to repeat), he now prefers leisurely rides along the coast, enjoying the wind in his thinning hair.

Speaking of chill, Christian’s got a crew of furry friends waiting for him at home. Two cats and a dog. He swears cats are way smarter than dogs (sorry, Grizzly), but he adores them all anyway. Apparently, watching his pets just chillin’ helps him analyze and write meticulously formatted articles even better.

Here’s the thing about this guy: He works a lot, but he keeps himself fueled by enough coffee to make it through the day – and some seriously delicious (Filipino) food. He says a delectable meal is the secret ingredient to a killer article. And after a long day of crypto crusading, he unwinds with some rum (mixed with milk) while watching slapstick movies.

Looking ahead, Christian sees a bright future with NewsBTC. He says he sees himself privileged to be part of an awesome organization, sharing his expertise and passion with a community he values, and fellow editors – and bosses – he deeply respects.

So, the next time you tread into the world of cryptocurrency, remember the man behind the words – the crypto crusader, the grease monkey, and the feline philosopher, all rolled into one.

Bitcoin’s recent slide has left traders squinting at charts and asking the same blunt question: correction or crash? Prices have tumbled sharply, but some market watchers still see this as a deep pullback inside a longer uptrend. Others warn the data points to something colder.

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Price Decline And Hard Numbers

According to XWIN Research’s CryptoQuant analysis, Bitcoin has fallen about 46% from a peak near $126,000 and now trades around $67,900 after five straight months of losses.

The Fear & Greed Index sits at 14 — a reading labeled Extreme Fear. Reports note that net realized losses recently hit over $13 billion, a level that matched the worst stretches of the 2022 slump.

In 2024, roughly $10 billion of inflows helped lift market cap. Then in 2025, more than $300 billion flowed in while the overall market value shrank. That odd mix of heavy inflows and falling market cap suggests selling pressure is higher than fresh buying.

How Rising Prices Are Masking a Quiet Shift in Bitcoin’s Structure

“The base scenario is that Bitcoin may already be entering winter, with higher prices and stronger structure delaying recognition.” – By @xwinfinance

Read more https://t.co/7soxNoBhqi pic.twitter.com/fEsSXpAmuK

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 11, 2026

Capital Flows Versus Price Action

Based on reports, the capital flow numbers are the most awkward fact for bulls. Money moved in, but value fell. Who was selling into that demand? Large holders, paper traders, or complex derivatives desks might have taken profits or hedged positions.

The data alone doesn’t name the seller, but the pattern is a red flag. On-chain measures also reveal shrinking realized gains even as prices remained far above prior bear-era levels. That tends to weaken the internal strength of the market over time.

Sentiment And Historical Echoes

Some traders point to a quirk of memory: high nominal prices make pain feel milder. People don’t want to relive the chaos of 2022. Reports say the launch of spot ETFs and deeper institutional access have changed the market’s plumbing, and that gives many confidence.

Yet sentiment readings at extreme fear often show up near capitulation points. It’s worth remembering that in 2022 realized losses peaked about five months before the market bottom, which means big losses can precede a final low by a long stretch.

Technical Patterns And The Bigger Picture

Bitcoin posted four consecutive losing months and a 41% decline across that stretch — a streak last seen during 2018 rather than 2022. That pattern matters because similar sequences have led to extended downturns in the past.

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Bitcoin At A Crossroads As XWIN Flags Early Signs Of Crypto Winter

For XWIN Research, the message is simple: price alone does not define the cycle. What matters is who is buying, who is selling, and whether demand can absorb supply without market value shrinking.

Right now, that balance looks strained. Until inflows begin translating into sustained market cap growth and realized losses cool meaningfully, the firm believes the market should be treated with caution rather than optimism. Winter may not have fully arrived, but based on the data, the temperature is clearly dropping.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Semilore is drawn to the efficiency of digital assets in terms of storing, and transferring value. He is a staunch advocate for the adoption of cryptocurrency as he believes it can improve the digitalization and transparency of the existing financial systems.

In two years of active crypto writing, Semilore has covered multiple aspects of the digital asset space including blockchains, decentralized finance (DeFi), staking, non-fungible tokens (NFT), regulations and network upgrades among others.

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In conclusion, Semilore Faleti exemplifies the convergence of expertise, passion, and advocacy in the world of crypto journalism. He is a rare individual whose work in documenting the evolution of cryptocurrency will remain relevant for years to come.

His dedication to demystifying digital assets and advocating for their adoption, combined with his commitment to social justice and political engagement, positions him as a dynamic and influential voice in the industry.

Whether through his meticulous reporting at NewsBTC or his fervent promotion of fairness and equity, Semilore continues to inform, educate, and inspire his audience, striving for a more transparent and inclusive financial future.