Bitcoin price and crypto market tumbled lower amid weak market sentiment due to high US dollar and Treasury yields as a result of stagflation. While macro factors continue to exert pressure on the crypto market, top analyst Markus Thielen presented 10 catalysts traders are watching as Bitcoin fails to show recovery signs.
Top Analyst Points Out 10 Catalysts for Bitcoin Price Recovery
Markus Thielen, CEO of crypto research firm 10x Research, said identifying and reacting to catalysts are important now as 93.8% of Bitcoin has been mined. In addition, Bitcoin returns in each cycle are dropping by a factor of 5. While 2013 saw Bitcoin price giving 560x in returns, it decreased to 21x in 2021. He added that Bitcoin may only give 4-5x return this year and buy-and-hold may no longer work.
1. Fed Monetary Policy Decision on May 1
FOMC and inflation data tend to impact Bitcoin price direction significantly. After last month FOMC, BTC price soared as the Fed kept interest rates unchanged and signaled a slowdown in quantitative easing (QT).
The Fed meeting on May 1 is important for the crypto and stock markets as Chairman Jerome Powell could turn out to be hawkish and announce less than three rate cuts this year. All three US inflation data CPI, PCE, and PPI came out hotter recently, driving discussion on the Fed table.
ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLSTs job openings data on May 1 can set the initial sentiment before the Fed interest rate decision later that day.
2. Non Farm Payrolls on May 3
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to announce non farm payrolls on May 3, If this employment statistics is weak, it may indicate stagflation is here. The US economy added 303K jobs in March 2024, the most in ten months, compared to a downwardly revised 270K in February and forecasts of 200K.
As per the market expectations, experts said the US economy has added 243K jobs in April. A strong labor market can delay the Fed rate cuts.
3. PPI Inflation Data on May 14
The Producer Price Index (PPI) will be announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on May 14. Producer prices in the United States increased 2.1% year-on-year in March 2024, the most since April 2023, after 1.6% rise in February, but below forecasts of 2.2%. The April data will be crucial due to rising inflation.
4. CPI Inflation on May 15
CPI inflation rate in the US accelerated for a second straight month to 3.5% in March 2024, the highest since September, compared to 3.2% in February. The Fed considers CPI data crucial for making decisions on monetary policy.
The CPI inflation figures on May 15 will set the market direction, potentially triggering a rebound in the Bitcoin price.
5. SEC Deadline for VanEck’s Spot Ether ETF
Spot Ether ETF application by VanEck is first in line for the SEC’s final decision on May 23. This will confirm the SEC’s decision on other spot Ether ETFs. If approved, ETH price will rally past $4,000 easily and trigger a recovery in altcoins.
DTCC listing Franklin’s spot Ethereum ETF on its website triggered a 6-8% rally in ETH price over the weekend. However, the odds of the SEC approving a spot Ethereum ETF are low as the issues shared that the SEC and its staff have shown no interest in the spot Ether ETF and its potential.
6. ARK’s Spot Ether ETF
The SEC’s decision on Ark Invest’s spot Ether ETF is due on May 24, probably until the last day traders can expect an approval of an Ether ETF.
7. Bitcoin Options Expiry
Markus Thielen said $9.4 billion of BTC and ETH options expiring were a supportive factor for a bullish recovery. However, Bitcoin price fell amid lack of trading volumes and PCE inflation data on April 26. The next two key Bitcoin and Ethereum options open interest expirations are on May 31 and June 28.
8. Bitcoin Volatility Remains Until June
He believes Bitcoin price will remain volatile until the end of June. The major market action could start after the two largest options expiry in May and June.
As per Deribit data, options traders are making bets for BTC price hitting $100K in September and falling to around $70-80K by December.
9. MicroStrategy Quarterly Earnings Report
MicroStrategy to announce its first-quarter results after the market close on April 29. MSTR price closed 3% higher to $1,282 on Friday and currently trading 2.38% down at $1,248 in pre-market hours on Monday.
If MicroStrategy adopts FASB accounting rules, which is effective January 1 next year, it will boost it’s share price and boost earnings significantly.
10. MicroStrategy in S&P 500
If MicroStrategy changes its accounting standards, there is high possibility of the company inclusion in the S&P 500 index, which is announced quarterly on June 1. The other two requirements — market capitalization of $15.8 billion and 50 % of outstanding shares to be tradable — are met.
Also Read: Why Japanese Yen Strengthens Sharply Against US Dollar (USD), Shocks Crypto & Stocks
The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
