Could A Dangerous Bear Market Fractal Be Brewing In Bitcoin?


After a rejection at the mid-range of its current levels, Bitcoin sits at $44,066 with a 5% loss in the past 24 hours. The first cryptocurrency by market still has profits in higher timeframes, but in the short term, it seems at risk of another correction.

BTC on a downtrend in the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

As trader Bob Loukas claimed via his Twitter account, Bitcoin is approaching a “Bull trap target”. Over the past two weeks, BTC’s price moved relatively quickly from the low $30,000s after trading at that level since the market made a 50% correction during May 2021.

Thus, the Fear and Greed Index flipped positive for the first time in that period, as investors expected further gains while Bitcoin moved into the low $40,000s. Although the recent rally has shown conviction, Loukas hasn’t ruled a full reversal in the downside trend experienced since May. The trade made the following recommendation:

Don’t get me wrong, very encouraging cycle developments here.  But it’s not complete trend reversal confirmation yet.  Having a plan is not weakness. When we get clean confirmation of a new uptrend, then your mindset on allocation can be skewed accordingly.

The current selling pressure leading to losses in the daily might have come from the mining sector. Data from ByteTree records an increase in the BTC supply sold by miners over the past 24 hours, for the first time in weeks, this metric has surpassed the amount of BTC produced during the same period.

As seen below, miners’ inventory stands at a negative 169 with an 881 BTC production during the past day.

Source: ByteTree

Bitcoin To Reclaim New Highs In 2023?

Analyst firm Material Indicators uses historical data from exchanges order books to predict BTC’s price potential future trends. As seen below, their fractal for the BTC/USD contemplates a period of sideways movement in August before a potential revisit of the lows at $40,000.

After, Bitcoin could trend upwards and reclaim the territory north of $50,000 before a major crash back to its yearly open around October. Later, the bullish momentum could resume and BTC’s price could make its way back to its current levels.

Source: Material Indicators via Telegram

Trader Nunya Bizniz also published a fractal to predict a potential moved to the downside for the BTC/USD pair. This fractal has been created for higher timeframes ranging from the current price action, all the way to 2023.

As seen below, the trader expects Bitcoin to retest the mid-levels of its previous range around $30,000 as the end of 2021 approaches. Thus, BTC could find support at $34,000, if the bulls are unable to display strength.

Source: Nunya Bizniz via Twitter

The fractal is more bearish than the one presented by Material Indicators, but both coincide with more room for the bulls to continue to push the price into previous highs. The fractal presented by Bizniz contemplates the latter for 2022 with July as a potential target to confirm a move into a new Bitcoin all-time high.

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